Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Good Morning Japan: A detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan</li>
<li>OVERNIGHT: Gridlock rally continues.. Materials and tech leading.  Brief interruptions from a mini-crypto crash.  All good now. but we look to inflation numbers </li>
<li>IN JAPAN:  All good - Govt approves stimulus of ¥29trn; USDJPY stabilizing as market turns bullish yen; Strong earnings from Sumco;  Positive semi initiation in European with positive JP read </li>
</ul>


Good Morning Japan: A detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan
OVERNIGHT: Gridlock rally continues.. Materials and tech leading.  Brief interruptions from a mini-crypto crash.  All good now. but we look to inflation numbers 
IN JAPAN:  All good - Govt approves stimulus of ¥29trn; USDJPY stabilizing as market turns bullish yen; Strong earnings from Sumco;  Positive semi initiation in European with positive JP read 


<ul>
<li>Good Morning Japan: A detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan</li>
<li>Broad based rally ahead of US mid terms as market downplays risks with the inflation numbers on tap this week</li>
<li>Japan: Earnings showing 25% of firms reporting record profits so far for 1H. In contrast, over 40% showing profits down or  losses on cost inflation. Focus today: Daikin, Sumco, Pan-Pacific,etc</li>
</ul>


Good Morning Japan: A detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan
Broad based rally ahead of US mid terms as market downplays risks with the inflation numbers on tap this week
Japan: Earnings showing 25% of firms reporting record profits so far for 1H. In contrast, over 40% showing profits down or  losses on cost inflation. Focus today: Daikin, Sumco, Pan-Pacific,etc


Good Morning Japan - November 8, 2022(Tue)

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan’s tech space fell hard last week, with the tech sector down 5.4%, compared to a 4.9% drop for the overall market. Semiconductors performed the worst, down 6.2%.</li>
<li>Hon Hai, Delta, Lite-On -- EV a major theme for the first-ever Taiwan Expo USA coming October 12th.</li>
<li>Taiwan wafer exports were at an all-time high in August. We note that wafer names have underperformed TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan’s tech space fell hard last week, with the tech sector down 5.4%, compared to a 4.9% drop for the overall market. Semiconductors performed the worst, down 6.2%.
Hon Hai, Delta, Lite-On -- EV a major theme for the first-ever Taiwan Expo USA coming October 12th.
Taiwan wafer exports were at an all-time high in August. We note that wafer names have underperformed TSMC.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trying to Recover After a Week of Deep Declines

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Sumco 1Q revenues were on the strong side, 1.5% above consensus but OP beat by 9.9%. </li>
<li>As we have been flagging, consensus is underestimating operating leverage and that was before the weakening of the yen. </li>
<li>Revenue guidance for 2Q was 4.9% above consensus and OP 12.8% higher but we expect results to be an even larger beat.</li>
</ul>


Sumco 1Q revenues were on the strong side, 1.5% above consensus but OP beat by 9.9%. 
As we have been flagging, consensus is underestimating operating leverage and that was before the weakening of the yen. 
Revenue guidance for 2Q was 4.9% above consensus and OP 12.8% higher but we expect results to be an even larger beat.


Japan

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

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SUMCO Corp (3436 JP)

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

Good Morning Japan - Wed Gridlock Rally

Good Morning Japan: We take a detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan.

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan - November 8, 2022(Tue)

Good Morning Japan: A detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan. We highlight small to big...

Mark Chadwick

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trying to Recover After a Week of Deep Declines

AU Optronics stock suspended, Intel's Mobileye IPO is back, Samsung takes share from TSMC, Taiwan wafer exports are at an all-time high.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Sumco – Still Underestimated

Sumco delivered a strong beat at 1Q together with strong guidance but we believe those numbers are still highly conservative given a weakening yen.

Mio Kato

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