Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Wafer demand in 2023 has fallen to just 86% of global capacity, the lowest in a decade</li>
<li>Demand for Epitaxial wafers (used for Logic) is not going to recover until EOY'23. Demand for Polished wafers (used for Memory) will likely take until H2'24 to recover</li>
<li>It could potentially take until 2026 for supply and demand to return to balance. </li>
</ul>


Wafer demand in 2023 has fallen to just 86% of global capacity, the lowest in a decade
Demand for Epitaxial wafers (used for Logic) is not going to recover until EOY'23. Demand for Polished wafers (used for Memory) will likely take until H2'24 to recover
It could potentially take until 2026 for supply and demand to return to balance. 


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.</li>
<li>Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023 forecast provided</li>
<li>There's a major headwind looming on the horizon for the broader silicon wafer segment...</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.
Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023 forecast provided
There's a major headwind looming on the horizon for the broader silicon wafer segment...


SUMCO Q1’23 Revenues of ¥109.9 Billion, -6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of €404.4 million, -14.3% QoQ and -3% YoY.</li>
<li>Q2'23 revenues forecasted flat sequentially with no prospect of a second half recovery.</li>
<li>Why no H2 recovery ? And why did GlobalWafers outperform Siltronic last quarter?</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of €404.4 million, -14.3% QoQ and -3% YoY.
Q2'23 revenues forecasted flat sequentially with no prospect of a second half recovery.
Why no H2 recovery ? And why did GlobalWafers outperform Siltronic last quarter?


Siltronic Q1'23 Revenue €404.4 Million, -14.3% QoQ And -3% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of NT$18.6 billion, up 14.2% YoY and up ~1% QoQ.</li>
<li>No specific Q2'23 forecast provided but we fully expect a sequential decline and the end of a 13 quarter growth streak </li>
<li>YTD silicon carbide revenues have already exceeded full year 2022 revenues, albeit coming from a low base.</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of NT$18.6 billion, up 14.2% YoY and up ~1% QoQ.
No specific Q2'23 forecast provided but we fully expect a sequential decline and the end of a 13 quarter growth streak 
YTD silicon carbide revenues have already exceeded full year 2022 revenues, albeit coming from a low base.


Globalwafers Q1'23 Revenues up 1% QoQ, 14.2% YoY

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level to cose up +1.4%; Nasdaq 100 enters BULL MARKET;  Micron +7% Intel +7.6%  spurs sentiment around Semi recovery. </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY ¥132.8;  Dividend x-Date today - expect ~¥1trill of reinvestment BUYING in total; New Toyota CEO vows to get serious about EVs -about time</li>
<li>NUGGET. Incoming CEO Makiko Ono - Set to Further Globalize Suntory Beverage.  If she can execute, stock looks like a bargain. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level to cose up +1.4%; Nasdaq 100 enters BULL MARKET;  Micron +7% Intel +7.6%  spurs sentiment around Semi recovery. 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY ¥132.8;  Dividend x-Date today - expect ~¥1trill of reinvestment BUYING in total; New Toyota CEO vows to get serious about EVs -about time
NUGGET. Incoming CEO Makiko Ono - Set to Further Globalize Suntory Beverage.  If she can execute, stock looks like a bargain. 


Good Morning Japan |NASDAQ BULL MARKET! NUGGET: CEO Makiko Ono-Set to Further Globalize Suntory Bev

Japan

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

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SUMCO Corp (3436 JP)

Silicon Wafers Imminent Capacity Glut

Wafer demand in 2023 has fallen to just 86% of global capacity, lowest in a decade. It could take until 2026 for global supply and demand to return...

William Keating

SUMCO Q1’23 Revenues of ¥109.9 Billion, -6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023...

William Keating

Siltronic Q1'23 Revenue €404.4 Million, -14.3% QoQ And -3% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

Q1’23 revenues of €404.4 million, -14.3% QoQ and -3% YoY. Q2'23 revenues to be flat sequentially. No second half recovery. Why? And why did...

William Keating

Globalwafers Q1'23 Revenues up 1% QoQ, 14.2% YoY

Q1’23 revenues of NT$18.6 billion, up 14.2% YoY and up ~1% QoQ. No specific Q2'23 forecast provided but we fully expect a sequential decline and...

William Keating

Good Morning Japan |NASDAQ BULL MARKET! NUGGET: CEO Makiko Ono-Set to Further Globalize Suntory Bev

In the US, NASDAQ 100 enters bull market. Broad based US rally. In Japan, Tech to lead; Drivers today: US rally, weaker yen; Underweight investors...

Mark Chadwick

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