Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>StoneCo has disposed of its remaining 4.2% stake in Inter &amp;Co, slamming the door shut on plans for a leading Brazilian neobank-paytech partnership originally announced in May 2021</li>
<li>Stone acquired 5% of Inter for BRL2.5bn in June 2021; the extent of the fintech market malaise means that currently BRL2.5bn (c USD500m) would buy close to 50% of Inter</li>
<li>This StoneCo stake disposal at least removes the Inter shares’ overhang risk; yet despite this technical relief, we reiterate that Inter’s fundamental outlook remains a challenging one</li>
</ul>


StoneCo has disposed of its remaining 4.2% stake in Inter &amp;Co, slamming the door shut on plans for a leading Brazilian neobank-paytech partnership originally announced in May 2021
Stone acquired 5% of Inter for BRL2.5bn in June 2021; the extent of the fintech market malaise means that currently BRL2.5bn (c USD500m) would buy close to 50% of Inter
This StoneCo stake disposal at least removes the Inter shares’ overhang risk; yet despite this technical relief, we reiterate that Inter’s fundamental outlook remains a challenging one


Inter & Co (INTR US) – No More StoneCo Stake Overhang, but the Fundamental Outlook Remains Tough

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a> has offered, Potentia, four weeks of due diligence access to “<em>develop a significantly improved proposal.</em>” The Board rejected Potentia’s previous A$1.60 offer on 12 December.</li>
<li>Since the rejection of the offer, the FY2023 guidance has been upgraded and peers have re-rated. Therefore, Potentia can afford to be more generous with its terms. </li>
<li>Press reports suggest that an offer of around A$1.85 per share would be supported by shareholders. We would be buyers as Tyro is undervalued at the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Tyro Payments (TYR AU) has offered, Potentia, four weeks of due diligence access to “develop a significantly improved proposal.” The Board rejected Potentia’s previous A$1.60 offer on 12 December.
Since the rejection of the offer, the FY2023 guidance has been upgraded and peers have re-rated. Therefore, Potentia can afford to be more generous with its terms. 
Press reports suggest that an offer of around A$1.85 per share would be supported by shareholders. We would be buyers as Tyro is undervalued at the last close price.


Tyro Payments (TYR AU): Bid Revived as Potentia Secures Due Diligence

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/tyro-payments-suitor-potentia-capital-ups-bid-to-1-60-a-share-20221211-p5c5ek" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that Potentia has increased its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a> by 26.0% from A$1.27 to A$1.60 per share, a 62.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The revised offer remains light and likely to be rejected again by the Board. Grok’s get-out clause with Potentia now sets the floor price of a competing bid at A$1.85.</li>
<li>Potentia’s revised bid is the catalyst for the other rumoured suitors (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a> and Moneris) to get their act together. A competing offer of around A$2.00 is possible. </li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that Potentia has increased its offer for Tyro Payments (TYR AU) by 26.0% from A$1.27 to A$1.60 per share, a 62.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The revised offer remains light and likely to be rejected again by the Board. Grok’s get-out clause with Potentia now sets the floor price of a competing bid at A$1.85.
Potentia’s revised bid is the catalyst for the other rumoured suitors (Westpac Banking (WBC AU) and Moneris) to get their act together. A competing offer of around A$2.00 is possible. 


Tyro Payments (TYR AU): Potentia Returns with a A$1.60 Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a> confirmed that it has “<em>received approaches from several parties expressing interest in a potential change of control transaction, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a>.</em>”</li>
<li>Tyro previously rejected a A$1.27 offer from the Potentia consortium. Grok's get-out clause with Potentia sets the floor price of a competing bid at A$1.52 per share.</li>
<li>The last close of A$1.59 is higher than the floor price. Triangulating the value of a rival bid across several data points suggests a competing offer of around A$2.</li>
</ul>



Tyro Payments (TYR AU) confirmed that it has “received approaches from several parties expressing interest in a potential change of control transaction, including Westpac Banking (WBC AU).”
Tyro previously rejected a A$1.27 offer from the Potentia consortium. Grok's get-out clause with Potentia sets the floor price of a competing bid at A$1.52 per share.
The last close of A$1.59 is higher than the floor price. Triangulating the value of a rival bid across several data points suggests a competing offer of around A$2.


Tyro Confirms Westpac as One of the Interested Suitors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Brazil caps interchange fees on prepaid and debit cards, as from 1st April 2023, limiting revenues for Brazilian card issuers; Nubank and Inter seem most exposed, less so PagSeguro</li>
<li>We expect that Brazil fintechs StoneCo and Cielo, with their small card issuance operations, should be broadly unaffected</li>
<li>Nubank’s prospective revenue hit is more than 5%, Inter close to 5% and PagSeguro’s hit at 1-2%; we remain negative on Nubank, turn cautious on Inter, but find PagSeguro attractive</li>
</ul>


Brazil caps interchange fees on prepaid and debit cards, as from 1st April 2023, limiting revenues for Brazilian card issuers; Nubank and Inter seem most exposed, less so PagSeguro
We expect that Brazil fintechs StoneCo and Cielo, with their small card issuance operations, should be broadly unaffected
Nubank’s prospective revenue hit is more than 5%, Inter close to 5% and PagSeguro’s hit at 1-2%; we remain negative on Nubank, turn cautious on Inter, but find PagSeguro attractive


Brazil Fintech: New Cap on Card Interchange Fees, Nubank and Inter Look Most Exposed

Brazil

StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology solutions. The Company offers end-to-end cloud-based technology platform to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels. StoneCo serves customers in Brazil.

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StoneCo (STNE US)

Inter & Co (INTR US) – No More StoneCo Stake Overhang, but the Fundamental Outlook Remains Tough

StoneCo's disposal of its Inter stake lifts overhang but key fundamental hurdles remain for Inter; forecast high loan growth will absorb capital,...

Victor Galliano

Tyro Payments (TYR AU): Bid Revived as Potentia Secures Due Diligence

Since the rejection of the offer, the FY2023 guidance has been upgraded and peers have re-rated. Therefore, Potentia can afford to be more generous...

Arun George

Tyro Payments (TYR AU): Potentia Returns with a A$1.60 Offer

Potentia's revised offer continues to remain light. Potentia’s latest move is the catalyst for other suitors such as Westpac and Moneris (rumoured)...

Arun George

Tyro Confirms Westpac as One of the Interested Suitors

The floor price of a competing bid at A$1.52 per share. Triangulating the value of a rival bid across several data points suggests a competing...

Arun George

Brazil Fintech: New Cap on Card Interchange Fees, Nubank and Inter Look Most Exposed

Regulatory pressure, due to the interchange fee cap, worsens the revenue outlook for Nubank especially, as well as that of Inter; we see...

Victor Galliano

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