Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a> listed today on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). No big bang opening day for the stock as it opened at the highs and quickly sold off to trade a tick or two above its IPO price of THB 35/share for most of the day.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a> traded 329.77m shares on the day at a VWAP of THB 35.9505. Bulk of the volume traded in the opening auction at THB 37.</p><p>At the close of trading, SCGP traded at THB 35/share, probably supported by the greenshoe. That gave <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a> a full market cap of THB 148.874bn placing it at rank 20 among the SET50 constituents and ensuring its market cap was more than 1% of the market cap of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22915:1" rel="noopener">Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)</a> - 1.16% from our calculations. With a free float of 29.51%, the stock met all conditions for Fast Entry into the index.</p><p>SET has just <a href="https://www.set.or.th/th/market/files/constituents/SET50_100_H2_2020_revised.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the changes to the SET50 Index where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a> has been added and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thanachart-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:297:1" rel="noopener">Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB)</a> has been deleted. The changes will need to be made at the close of trading on 27 October.</p><p>The inclusion also affects the stocks to be included and excluded at the regular index review in December.</p>

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) listed today on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). No big bang opening day for the stock as it opened at the highs and quickly sold off to trade a tick or two above its IPO price of THB 35/share for most of the day.SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) traded 329.77m shares on the day at a VWAP of THB 35.9505. Bulk of the volume traded in the opening auction at THB 37.At the close of trading, SCGP traded at THB 35/share, probably supported by the greenshoe. That gave SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) a full market cap of THB 148.874bn placing it at rank 20 among the SET50 constituents and ensuring its market cap was more than 1% of the market cap of the Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX) - 1.16% from our calculations. With a free float of 29.51%, the stock met all conditions for Fast Entry into the index.SET has just announced the changes to the SET50 Index where SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) has been added and Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB) has been deleted. The changes will need to be made at the close of trading on 27 October.The inclusion also affects the stocks to be included and excluded at the regular index review in December.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>What is becoming more apparent is the inability for US equities to see weakness stick in the face of negative news with a bullish backdrop of pending stimulus with a Democrat win gaining traction. What happens between now and November is our real focus to pinpoint cycle lows either near October 19th or late October. Delayed stimulus will unnerve markets (as will the prospect of higher corporate tax) but a clear bullish underpinning for a rally into year end.</p><div>Game plan is tactical short for lows into 19th/late October to buy risk for a rise into December and early 2021 on the back of a fresh round of stimulus. Risk to reward and liquidity favors buying weakness in coming weeks.</div><div></div><div>The widening gap between liquidity driven equities markets and the real economy will come to the surface in 2021 if with some undercurrents expected into the year end.</div><div></div><div>Asia long picks - A shares, Australia, Thailand and India.</div><div>Asia short picks - HK, Taiwan, Korea and Nikkei 24k.</div>

What is becoming more apparent is the inability for US equities to see weakness stick in the face of negative news with a bullish backdrop of pending stimulus with a Democrat win gaining traction. What happens between now and November is our real focus to pinpoint cycle lows either near October 19th or late October. Delayed stimulus will unnerve markets (as will the prospect of higher corporate tax) but a clear bullish underpinning for a rally into year end.Game plan is tactical short for lows into 19th/late October to buy risk for a rise into December and early 2021 on the back of a fresh round of stimulus. Risk to reward and liquidity favors buying weakness in coming weeks.The widening gap between liquidity driven equities markets and the real economy will come to the surface in 2021 if with some undercurrents expected into the year end.Asia long picks - A shares, Australia, Thailand and India.Asia short picks - HK, Taiwan, Korea and Nikkei 24k.

Asia Shorts and What to Buy into October Weakness

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a>, Thailand's largest packaging company, is looking to raise between THB 37.77-39.46bn (US$1.21-1.26bn) via a listing on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) by selling 1.127bn shares (plus a greenshoe of 169m shares) at a price range of THB 33.5-35/share.</p><p>Shares will be offered to investors between 28 September and 14 October with final pricing to be announced on 8 October and shares should begin trading in the second half of October.</p><p>Using current market prices, the stock should be included in the SET50 index at the close on its third day of trading, but the final decision is dependent on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a>'s closing price on its first trading day and also on the performance of the current constituents of the SET50 index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22915:1" rel="noopener">Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)</a>.</p><p>In this Insight, we take a look at the some of the IPO details and the possibility of the stock being included in the SET50 index.</p>

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB), Thailand's largest packaging company, is looking to raise between THB 37.77-39.46bn (US$1.21-1.26bn) via a listing on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) by selling 1.127bn shares (plus a greenshoe of 169m shares) at a price range of THB 33.5-35/share.Shares will be offered to investors between 28 September and 14 October with final pricing to be announced on 8 October and shares should begin trading in the second half of October.Using current market prices, the stock should be included in the SET50 index at the close on its third day of trading, but the final decision is dependent on SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)'s closing price on its first trading day and also on the performance of the current constituents of the SET50 index and the Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX).In this Insight, we take a look at the some of the IPO details and the possibility of the stock being included in the SET50 index.

SCG Packaging and SET50 Fast Entry Inclusion: In The Box

Airports of Thailand / Technical Analysis

<p>AOT buy volume on the rise from mid August warning that the rise is not only fragile but set for a hard decline from the 60/62 resistance zone. </p><p>AOT rising wedge in price and RSI is bearish. AOT's rising wedge in price and RSI is a bear set up.</p><p>SET 50 is drifting into lower bull wedge support that sets up a bounce/rally sequence as AOT grinds toward 60 sell resistance that makes for a compelling short AOT/long SET 50 pair.</p><p>AOT rising wedge in price and RSI is bearish near outlined resistance.</p>

AOT buy volume on the rise from mid August warning that the rise is not only fragile but set for a hard decline from the 60/62 resistance zone. AOT rising wedge in price and RSI is bearish. AOT's rising wedge in price and RSI is a bear set up.SET 50 is drifting into lower bull wedge support that sets up a bounce/rally sequence as AOT grinds toward 60 sell resistance that makes for a compelling short AOT/long SET 50 pair.AOT rising wedge in price and RSI is bearish near outlined resistance.

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p style="text-align: justify;">In an earlier Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-and-thailand-divergence" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Malaysia and Thailand Divergence</strong></a>, 30 Sep, we drew attention to diverging trends in two of Southeast Asia’s more mature economies, Malaysia and Thailand. At that time second quarter headline GDP numbers showed Malaysia on a rising trend and Thailand on a declining trend. But when investment was examined Thailand was still growing while Malaysia was contracting. Have the third quarter releases changed the picture any? Yes and no...</p>

In an earlier Insight, Malaysia and Thailand Divergence, 30 Sep, we drew attention to diverging trends in two of Southeast Asia’s more mature economies, Malaysia and Thailand. At that time second quarter headline GDP numbers showed Malaysia on a rising trend and Thailand on a declining trend. But when investment was examined Thailand was still growing while Malaysia was contracting. Have the third quarter releases changed the picture any? Yes and no...

Double Divergence: Malaysia and Thailand Mixed Signals

Thailand

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975. 

Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)

SCG Packaging Listing & SET50 Inclusion

SCG Packaging listed on the SET today and finished flat on the day. That was enough to warrant inclusion in the SET50 index. TCAP will be deleted...

Brian Freitas

Asia Shorts and What to Buy into October Weakness

What is becoming more apparent is the inability for US equities to see weakness stick in the face of negative news with a bullish backdrop of...

Thomas Schroeder

SCG Packaging and SET50 Fast Entry Inclusion: In The Box

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)

Brian Freitas

AOT Short/SET Long a Compelling Pair

AOT buy volume on the rise from mid August warning that the rise is not only fragile but set for a hard decline from the 60/62 resistance...

Thomas Schroeder

Double Divergence: Malaysia and Thailand Mixed Signals

In an earlier Insight, Malaysia and Thailand Divergence, 30 Sep, we drew attention to diverging trends in two of Southeast Asia’s more mature...

Dr. Jim Walker