Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia is cheap relative to the US - trading at less than 40% of US's P/BV - but that's because Asia's ROE has consistently declined relative to US's.</li>
<li>Over the next couple of years Asian ROEs are forecast to revive relative to the US's but all Asian markets are not forecast to participate in this recovery.</li>
<li>The "ROE Winners" (rising forecast ROEs) are Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia. Indonesia to stay flat but solidly higher than Asian average. We are skeptical of HK/China and Thailand's ROE recovery.</li>
</ul>


Asia is cheap relative to the US - trading at less than 40% of US's P/BV - but that's because Asia's ROE has consistently declined relative to US's.
Over the next couple of years Asian ROEs are forecast to revive relative to the US's but all Asian markets are not forecast to participate in this recovery.
The "ROE Winners" (rising forecast ROEs) are Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia. Indonesia to stay flat but solidly higher than Asian average. We are skeptical of HK/China and Thailand's ROE recovery.


Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

We specialize in consulting both individual and institutional clients, providing them with effective financial solutions that are tailored to their specific needs.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The VN-Index (VNI) declined 1.8% in October: The VNI started October with four consecutive declining sessions (VNI: -1.7% from October 1st to 7th) due to high profit taking pressure as the VNI approached the 1,300-point level.</li><li>However, the VNI then recovered (VNI: +1.3% from October 7th to 17th) as sentiment improved on upbeat macro data (Vietnam posted +6.8% YoY GDP growth in 9M 2024) and rallies in US equities (S&amp;P500: +2.6%; Nasdaq: +2.5%; DJI: +3.1%) in the same period.</li><li>However, upward momentum was not sustained and the VNI declined towards the end of the month (VNI: -1.7% from October 17th to 31st) due to several reasons, including: (1) profit-taking pressure returned; (2) the SBV resumed T-bill issuance (the SBV net withdrew VND52.1tn (USD2.1bn) from October 18th to November 1st from the banking system); and (3) foreign investors net sold around USD358.3mn on HSX in the second half of October. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The VN-Index (VNI) declined 1.8% in October: The VNI started October with four consecutive declining sessions (VNI: -1.7% from October 1st to 7th) due to high profit taking pressure as the VNI approached the 1,300-point level.However, the VNI then recovered (VNI: +1.3% from October 7th to 17th) as sentiment improved on upbeat macro data (Vietnam posted +6.8% YoY GDP growth in 9M 2024) and rallies in US equities (S&amp;P500: +2.6%; Nasdaq: +2.5%; DJI: +3.1%) in the same period.However, upward momentum was not sustained and the VNI declined towards the end of the month (VNI: -1.7% from October 17th to 31st) due to several reasons, including: (1) profit-taking pressure returned; (2) the SBV resumed T-bill issuance (the SBV net withdrew VND52.1tn (USD2.1bn) from October 18th to November 1st from the banking system); and (3) foreign investors net sold around USD358.3mn on HSX in the second half of October. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market Recap October 2024 - VN-Index Declines After Three Months of Gains

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.</li><li>Highlights impacting the market include: i) the 3Q24E earnings results (US and Thai banks); ii) US election on November 5 (Harris or Trump?); iii) results of the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting (first signal of a rate cut?), and iv) the Pheu Thai government gradually rolling out additional economic stimulus measures.</li><li>Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial market volatility leading up to the US election, and profit taking by foreign investors after the support from the Vayupak Fund fades</li></ul>

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.Highlights impacting the market include: i) the 3Q24E earnings results (US and Thai banks); ii) US election on November 5 (Harris or Trump?); iii) results of the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting (first signal of a rate cut?), and iv) the Pheu Thai government gradually rolling out additional economic stimulus measures.Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial market volatility leading up to the US election, and profit taking by foreign investors after the support from the Vayupak Fund fades

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to move upward, with intermittent contractions, with the resistance at 1,390/1,410 points and the support at 1,335/1,325 points.</li><li>Key factors. to watch include: i) The outcomes of the ECB, FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings, which could positively impact equity markets if there are signals of gradual easing</li><li>ii) The potential escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, which could negatively affect markets (risk-off sentiment) if it intensifies into a broader war involving Israel/US and Iran/Russia.</li><li>iii) The US presidential election, with attention on polling trends following the Trump-Harris debate; a shift toward a Republican sweep in both houses could negatively affect markets. </li></ul>

KTX expects the index to move upward, with intermittent contractions, with the resistance at 1,390/1,410 points and the support at 1,335/1,325 points.Key factors. to watch include: i) The outcomes of the ECB, FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings, which could positively impact equity markets if there are signals of gradual easingii) The potential escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, which could negatively affect markets (risk-off sentiment) if it intensifies into a broader war involving Israel/US and Iran/Russia.iii) The US presidential election, with attention on polling trends following the Trump-Harris debate; a shift toward a Republican sweep in both houses could negatively affect markets. 

<ul><li>The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).</li><li>However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.</li><li>As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Thailand

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975. 

Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)

Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Market Recap October 2024 - VN-Index Declines After Three Months of Gains

The VN-Index (VNI) declined 1.8% in October: The VNI started October with four consecutive declining sessions (VNI: -1.7% from October 1st to 7th)...

Vietcap

Monthly Report: October 2024

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: September 2024

KTX expects the index to move upward, with intermittent contractions, with the resistance at 1,390/1,410 points and the support at 1,335/1,325 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Since the beginning of the year to end-August, the VNI increased 13.6%, outperforming regional markets such as the Philippines’ PCOMP (+6.9%),...

Vietcap

Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

​Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Market Recap October 2024 - VN-Index Declines After Three Months of Gains

The VN-Index (VNI) declined 1.8% in October: The VNI started October with four consecutive declining sessions (VNI: -1.7% from October 1st to 7th)...

Vietcap

Monthly Report: October 2024

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: September 2024

KTX expects the index to move upward, with intermittent contractions, with the resistance at 1,390/1,410 points and the support at 1,335/1,325 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Since the beginning of the year to end-August, the VNI increased 13.6%, outperforming regional markets such as the Philippines’ PCOMP (+6.9%),...

Vietcap

Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...