Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising. </li><li>I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.</li><li>We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.</li></ul>

This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising. I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mobvoi, the innovative Chinese AI company backed by Google, Volkswagen Group, and top-tier VC firms, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company plans to raise between $200M and $300M. </li>
<li>Mobvoi is a rapidly growing AI unicorn. Revenue from AI software solutions skyrocketed 400%+ y/y in 2022. The company will launch AI painting assistant and AI writing assistant 2.0. soon.</li>
<li>China-Based startup chose CICC and CMB international to tap capital markets to develop universal LLM, market expansion, strategic alliances, acquisitions, and working capital. </li>
</ul>


Mobvoi, the innovative Chinese AI company backed by Google, Volkswagen Group, and top-tier VC firms, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company plans to raise between $200M and $300M. 
Mobvoi is a rapidly growing AI unicorn. Revenue from AI software solutions skyrocketed 400%+ y/y in 2022. The company will launch AI painting assistant and AI writing assistant 2.0. soon.
China-Based startup chose CICC and CMB international to tap capital markets to develop universal LLM, market expansion, strategic alliances, acquisitions, and working capital. 


Mobvoi IPO: Rapidly Growing AI Unicorn And Creator of Universal LLM “Xuliehouzi.”

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Consumption /In Depth: Where are Chinese consumers willing to spend?</li><li>AI /: China puts drafting AI law on national legislative agenda</li><li>Counterterrorism /: China, Pakistan and Iran hold first trilateral counterterrorism meeting</li></ul>

Consumption /In Depth: Where are Chinese consumers willing to spend?AI /: China puts drafting AI law on national legislative agendaCounterterrorism /: China, Pakistan and Iran hold first trilateral counterterrorism meeting

CX Daily: Where Are Chinese Consumers Willing to Spend?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Singapore

STMicroelectronics N.V. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets semiconductor integrated circuits and discrete devices. The Company's products are used in the telecommunications, consumer electronics, automotive, computer, and industrial sectors. Geographically, customers are located in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region.

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STMicroelectronics NV (STM US)

Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs

Plus my new taxonomy of cycles! Where I think each end market is in the cycle. This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Mobvoi IPO: Rapidly Growing AI Unicorn And Creator of Universal LLM “Xuliehouzi.”

TicWatch maker and provider of generative AI and interactive voice technologies, Mobvoi, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The AI company plans to raise...

Andrei Zakharov

CX Daily: Where Are Chinese Consumers Willing to Spend?

Consumption /In Depth: Where are Chinese consumers willing to spend? AI /: China puts drafting AI law on national legislative...

Caixin Global

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

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