Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.</li><li>First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).</li><li>This quarter's leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.</li></ul>

This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).This quarter's leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.

Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

<ul><li>I will start with a AMD section. Shares are down ~6-7% on last week’s result. Let’s talk about the result and why it was so disappointing.</li><li>AMD exactly matched EPS, was slightly light on revenue, and guided essentially in line with Q2 guidance.</li><li>This also was one of the slightest EPS and revenue beats in recent years. The last time this happened, the PC segment was imploding. This time it’s embedded revenue.</li></ul>

I will start with a AMD section. Shares are down ~6-7% on last week’s result. Let’s talk about the result and why it was so disappointing.AMD exactly matched EPS, was slightly light on revenue, and guided essentially in line with Q2 guidance.This also was one of the slightest EPS and revenue beats in recent years. The last time this happened, the PC segment was imploding. This time it’s embedded revenue.

AMD's MI300 Disappointment, Hyperscalers Capex, and FPGAs

<ul><li>This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.</li><li>Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.</li><li>Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.</li></ul>

This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.

<ul>
<li>This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.</li>
<li>This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.</li>
</ul>


This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.
This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.
Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest buy while capping results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> being the largest sell by far.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest buy while capping results in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) being the largest sell by far.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Singapore

STMicroelectronics N.V. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets semiconductor integrated circuits and discrete devices. The Company's products are used in the telecommunications, consumer electronics, automotive, computer, and industrial sectors. Geographically, customers are located in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region.

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STMicroelectronics NV (STM US)

Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

Here's everything that happened this quarter, and some thoughts and ideas. This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas...

Fabricated Knowledge

AMD's MI300 Disappointment, Hyperscalers Capex, and FPGAs

This is my earnings overview for the Hyperscalers, AMD, and thoughts specifically on FPGAs. I will start with a AMD section. Shares are down ~6-7%...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings Week of April 26th

TXN, NOD, TER, INTC, MXL, ASM, STM, ON, KLA, LRCX, VRT, Aixtron, MXL. This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual....

Fabricated Knowledge

Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

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