Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Advanced Micro Devices / Technical Analysis

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The SIA has released May semiconductor revenue statistics and the month broke all records for both revenues and unit shipments.  This is a continuation of the trend that this analyst has been reporting on since this time last year.  It appears that there is still plenty of strength in this market to allow further records to be broken.

The SIA has released May semiconductor revenue statistics and the month broke all records for both revenues and unit shipments.  This is a continuation of the trend that this analyst has been reporting on since this time last year.  It appears that there is still plenty of strength in this market to allow further records to be broken.

May Semiconductor Revenues Break a Record Once Again

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

MCU (microcontroller) is the basic control unit for a large number of electronic devices. Large international manufacturers occupied a major market share. Since 2021, the global MCU market has been suffering from a persistent shortage of stock, and prices have soared. Many downstream companies, especially car makers, are experiencing severe shortage of MUC chips. Chinese downstream customers have begun to accelerate the localization of MCU supply chains.I am optimistic about the performance of China MCU manufacturers this year, and I suggest paying attention to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigadevice-semiconductor-beijing-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27253:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (Beijing)-A (603986 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/espressif-systems-shanghai-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30311:1" rel="noopener">Espressif Systems Shanghai Co (688018 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-wealth-electronic-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14697:1" rel="noopener">Sino Wealth Electronic (300327 CH)</a>

MCU (microcontroller) is the basic control unit for a large number of electronic devices. Large international manufacturers occupied a major market share. Since 2021, the global MCU market has been suffering from a persistent shortage of stock, and prices have soared. Many downstream companies, especially car makers, are experiencing severe shortage of MUC chips. Chinese downstream customers have begun to accelerate the localization of MCU supply chains.I am optimistic about the performance of China MCU manufacturers this year, and I suggest paying attention to GigaDevice Semiconductor (Beijing)-A (603986 CH) , Espressif Systems Shanghai Co (688018 CH) , Sino Wealth Electronic (300327 CH) 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Renesas Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> shares priced at ¥1174/share on the 9th - the first day of Pricing, meaning the issuance would be completed on the <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/download?uji.verb=W0EZA104CXP001003Action&amp;uji.bean=ee.bean.parent.EECommonSearchBean&amp;PID=W1E63011&amp;SESSIONKEY=1623555011053&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;pkbn=0&amp;skbn=1&amp;dskb=&amp;askb=&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=&amp;preId=1&amp;mul=6723&amp;oth=on&amp;cal=1&amp;era=R&amp;yer=&amp;mon=&amp;pfs=4&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=&amp;s=S100LHP9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15th</a> and settlement one day later.Outwardly, the Offering appears to have been less well-placed than one would have expected or hoped. On the last day of the domestic investor subscription period, shares traded down to be pasted at the Stabilisation Price line in the last hour of trading on Friday.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/212/826/original/Screenshot+2021-06-13+at+8.44.07+PM.png?1623588287" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="212826"></figure></section>This is well off the post-announcement lows and investors, traders, and even I expected that the Pricing Date would see a lower close as long-only funds sold through Broker A to buy through Broker B to increase their ownership but by less than advertised. Market micro-dynamics and investing biases are fascinating subjects of study. I received a number of comments Friday which tell me that given the market price, had the Pricing been 1% lower compared to where shares closed Thursday, peoples' outlook would be quite different. This is despite 151 million shares (40% of the maximum Offering size) having traded in the last 3 days. Taking a step back is worthwhile.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) shares priced at ¥1174/share on the 9th - the first day of Pricing, meaning the issuance would be completed on the 15th and settlement one day later.Outwardly, the Offering appears to have been less well-placed than one would have expected or hoped. On the last day of the domestic investor subscription period, shares traded down to be pasted at the Stabilisation Price line in the last hour of trading on Friday.This is well off the post-announcement lows and investors, traders, and even I expected that the Pricing Date would see a lower close as long-only funds sold through Broker A to buy through Broker B to increase their ownership but by less than advertised. Market micro-dynamics and investing biases are fascinating subjects of study. I received a number of comments Friday which tell me that given the market price, had the Pricing been 1% lower compared to where shares closed Thursday, peoples' outlook would be quite different. This is despite 151 million shares (40% of the maximum Offering size) having traded in the last 3 days. Taking a step back is worthwhile.

WSTS has forecast for both 2021 and 2022 semiconductor revenues to break records.  While three years of strong back-to-back revenue growth has occurred in the past, there are reasons, which we explain here, to take this forecast with a good measure of skepticism.

WSTS has forecast for both 2021 and 2022 semiconductor revenues to break records.  While three years of strong back-to-back revenue growth has occurred in the past, there are reasons, which we explain here, to take this forecast with a good measure of skepticism.

WSTS Forecast: Record Semiconductor Revenues in Both 2021 & 2022

Switzerland

STMicroelectronics N.V. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets semiconductor integrated circuits and discrete devices. The Company's products are used in the telecommunications, consumer electronics, automotive, computer, and industrial sectors. Geographically, customers are located in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region.

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STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Despite our overall cautious outlook, several areas are attractive and buyable, including: Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Management...

Vermilion Research

May Semiconductor Revenues Break a Record Once Again

Even the semiconductors that are not in a dire shortage are in tight supply, driving prices and revenues to extraordinary heights. This Insight...

Jim Handy

Cashing in the Chips

The Pandemic, buyer hording and supply chain issues all contributed to a perfect storm that's causing a global shortage of computer chips. I take a...

Evelyn Zhang

Renesas - The Aftermath of the Offering

Renesas is at the Offering Price. Rather than selling the break I would be inclined to buy any major dip on break price vs global peers. There is a...

Travis Lundy

WSTS Forecast: Record Semiconductor Revenues in Both 2021 & 2022

The semiconductor industry's statistics body, WSTS, released a very bullish Spring forecast, predicting revenues to break records in both 2021 and...

Jim Handy

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