Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-hung-kai-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:111:1" rel="noopener">Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Energy, while decreasing on Utilities, Health Care, Materials and Communication Services.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brother-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6114:1" rel="noopener">Brother Industries (6448 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-tire-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15064:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Tire Corporation (5105 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-i-s-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19311:1" rel="noopener">H I S Co Ltd (9603 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gs-yuasa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8298:1" rel="noopener">Gs Yuasa Corp (6674 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in all sectors led by Industrials, Information Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, short increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-uplus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1113:1" rel="noopener">LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">Au Optronics (2409 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fitipower-integrated-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8712:1" rel="noopener">Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-foods-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19848:1" rel="noopener">Standard Foods (1227 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nan-ya-printed-circuit-board-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2699:1" rel="noopener">Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board (8046 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), HKEX (388 HK), JD Health (6618 HK) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) while there was short covering on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK) and Anta Sports Products (2020 HK). Shorts increased on Energy, while decreasing on Utilities, Health Care, Materials and Communication Services.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Nexon (3659 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Brother Industries (6448 JP) and Shiseido Company (4911 JP) while shorts decreased on Toyo Tire Corporation (5105 JP), H I S Co Ltd (9603 JP), East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP) and Gs Yuasa Corp (6674 JP). Shorts increased in all sectors led by Industrials, Information Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples.In Korea, short increased on SK Hynix (000660 KS) and LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS) while shorts decreased on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Naver Corp (035420 KS) and LG Display (034220 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were TSMC (2330 TT), United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) and Au Optronics (2409 TT) while shorts were covered on Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT), Standard Foods (1227 TT), Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board (8046 TT) and Largan Precision (3008 TT). 

Asia Short Interest: Kuaishou, HKEX, SHK, Anta, Nexon, Toshiba, Toyo Tire, HIS, Hynix, TSMC, UMC

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<p>China (MSCI China, Shenzhen A Share) offers a plethora of attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s report. Taiwan (TAIEX) is another focus as it is one of the few global indexes that is not yet breaking down. Lastly, Turkey (ISE National 100) appears to offer an attractive pullback opportunity. Within EM, we highlight attractive opportunities across the technology, consumer discretionary, health care and communications sectors.</p>

China (MSCI China, Shenzhen A Share) offers a plethora of attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s report. Taiwan (TAIEX) is another focus as it is one of the few global indexes that is not yet breaking down. Lastly, Turkey (ISE National 100) appears to offer an attractive pullback opportunity. Within EM, we highlight attractive opportunities across the technology, consumer discretionary, health care and communications sectors.

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>How long can the high last?</h2><p>On the 1st January 2019, the South China Post<a href="applewebdata://B2C0217F-400E-4853-9203-02F803C7B0CC#_ftn1" target="_blank"><sup>[1]</sup></a>published a story on Vitasoy International Holdings (Vitasoy 0345.HK) entitled “Cooler than Marijuana”.<sup><a href="applewebdata://B2C0217F-400E-4853-9203-02F803C7B0CC#_ftn2" target="_blank">[2]</a> </sup>Whilst this related to the huge internet memes<sup><a href="applewebdata://B2C0217F-400E-4853-9203-02F803C7B0CC#_ftn3" target="_blank">[3]</a> </sup>following of Vitasoy’s lemon tea in China, it could also be applied to the stock price performance, and high valuation multiple:</p><ul><li><strong>Since June 2013 Vitasoy’s stock price was up more than 327% </strong>and has, with dividends provided a total return of 344%, which compares to the Hang Seng index return of 29% over this period.</li><li><strong>Consensus calls for a historical price earnings multiple of circa 74 times and 1 year forward of circa 53 times</strong>, relative to peer multiples of 24x times and 18 times. The stock trades on a fiscal 2019 forecast of 54.9x and presents with consensus EPS growth of 31%, which by anyone’s standards is expensive.</li></ul><p>With Vitasoy’s lack of research coverage by mainstream houses, the fact that they are due to report their fiscal 2019 March year-end earnings on 20th June 2019, and an expectation of slower growth ahead, our initial bias is one of negativity. In this report, we examine whether the stock warrants the multiple awarded to it by the market.</p><p>However, with Vitasoy entering the Hong Kong MSCI Index in May, we ask - when is the right time to purchase a stock, with a solid fundamental case and earnings influenced by China’s burgeoning consumer base.</p><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><a href="applewebdata://B2C0217F-400E-4853-9203-02F803C7B0CC#_ftnref1" target="_blank"><sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup></a> South China Morning Post, 1st January 2019, “Cooler than marijuana? Hong Kong’s iconic Vitasoy drinks brand is on a high thanks to Chinese memes”, https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2179562/cooler-marijuana-hong-kongs-iconic-vitasoy-drinks-brand-high</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><a href="applewebdata://B2C0217F-400E-4853-9203-02F803C7B0CC#_ftnref2" target="_blank"><sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup></a> The Article cites that: “Its iconic lemon tea is so popular in the world’s biggest beverage market that internet users are jokingly comparing the experience of savouring the sweet-and-sour taste to that of smoking marijuana.”</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><a href="applewebdata://B2C0217F-400E-4853-9203-02F803C7B0CC#_ftnref3" target="_blank"><sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup></a> An Internet meme, commonly known as just a meme (/miːm/ MEEM), is an activity, concept, catchphrase, or piece of media that spreads, often as mimicry or for humorous purposes, from person to person via the Internet.</div>

How long can the high last?On the 1st January 2019, the South China Post[1]published a story on Vitasoy International Holdings (Vitasoy 0345.HK) entitled “Cooler than Marijuana”.[2] Whilst this related to the huge internet memes[3] following of Vitasoy’s lemon tea in China, it could also be applied to the stock price performance, and high valuation multiple:Since June 2013 Vitasoy’s stock price was up more than 327% and has, with dividends provided a total return of 344%, which compares to the Hang Seng index return of 29% over this period.Consensus calls for a historical price earnings multiple of circa 74 times and 1 year forward of circa 53 times, relative to peer multiples of 24x times and 18 times. The stock trades on a fiscal 2019 forecast of 54.9x and presents with consensus EPS growth of 31%, which by anyone’s standards is expensive.With Vitasoy’s lack of research coverage by mainstream houses, the fact that they are due to report their fiscal 2019 March year-end earnings on 20th June 2019, and an expectation of slower growth ahead, our initial bias is one of negativity. In this report, we examine whether the stock warrants the multiple awarded to it by the market.However, with Vitasoy entering the Hong Kong MSCI Index in May, we ask - when is the right time to purchase a stock, with a solid fundamental case and earnings influenced by China’s burgeoning consumer base.[1] South China Morning Post, 1st January 2019, “Cooler than marijuana? Hong Kong’s iconic Vitasoy drinks brand is on a high thanks to Chinese memes”, https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2179562/cooler-marijuana-hong-kongs-iconic-vitasoy-drinks-brand-high[2] The Article cites that: “Its iconic lemon tea is so popular in the world’s biggest beverage market that internet users are jokingly comparing the experience of savouring the sweet-and-sour taste to that of smoking marijuana.”[3] An Internet meme, commonly known as just a meme (/miːm/ MEEM), is an activity, concept, catchphrase, or piece of media that spreads, often as mimicry or for humorous purposes, from person to person via the Internet.

Notes from the Silk Road: Vitasoy Int'l Holdings (0345.HK) - How Long Can the High Last? (Full Note)

<h2>How long can the high last?</h2><p>On the 1st January 2019, the South China Post<a href="applewebdata://CBA4D09A-548D-404B-8D66-E2075537F3DA#_ftn1" target="_blank"><sup>[1]</sup></a>published a story on Vitasoy International Holdings (Vitasoy 0345.HK) entitled “Cooler than Marijuana”.<a href="applewebdata://CBA4D09A-548D-404B-8D66-E2075537F3DA#_ftn2" target="_blank"><sup>[2]</sup></a>Whilst this related to the huge internet memes<a href="applewebdata://CBA4D09A-548D-404B-8D66-E2075537F3DA#_ftn3" target="_blank"><sup>[3]</sup></a>following of Vitasoy’s lemon tea in China, it could also be applied to the stock price performance, and high valuation multiple:</p><ul><li><strong>Since June 2013 Vitasoy’s stock price was up more than 327% </strong>and has, with dividends provided a total return of 344%, which compares to the Hang Seng index return of 29% over this period.</li><li><strong>The current share price and consensus calls for a historical price earnings multiple of circa 74 times and 1 year forward of circa 53 times</strong>, relative to peer multiples of 24x times and 18 times. The stock trades on a fiscal 2019 forecast of 54.9x and presents with consensus EPS growth of 31%, which by anyone’s standards is expensive.</li></ul><p>With Vitasoy’s lack of research coverage by mainstream houses, the fact that they are due to report their fiscal 2019 March year-end earnings on 20th June 2019, and an expectation of slower growth ahead, our initial bias is one of negativity. In this report, we examine whether the stock warrants the multiple awarded to it by the market.</p><p>However, with Vitasoy entering the Hong Kong MSCI Index in May, we ask - when is the right time to purchase a stock, with a solid fundamental case and earnings influenced by China’s burgeoning consumer base.</p><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><a href="applewebdata://CBA4D09A-548D-404B-8D66-E2075537F3DA#_ftnref1" target="_blank"><sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup></a> South China Morning Post, 1st January 2019, “Cooler than marijuana? Hong Kong’s iconic Vitasoy drinks brand is on a high thanks to Chinese memes”, https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2179562/cooler-marijuana-hong-kongs-iconic-vitasoy-drinks-brand-high</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><a href="applewebdata://CBA4D09A-548D-404B-8D66-E2075537F3DA#_ftnref2" target="_blank"><sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup></a> The Article cites that: “Its iconic lemon tea is so popular in the world’s biggest beverage market that internet users are jokingly comparing the experience of savouring the sweet-and-sour taste to that of smoking marijuana.”</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><a href="applewebdata://CBA4D09A-548D-404B-8D66-E2075537F3DA#_ftnref3" target="_blank"><sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup></a> An Internet meme, commonly known as just a meme (/miːm/ MEEM), is an activity, concept, catchphrase, or piece of media that spreads, often as mimicry or for humorous purposes, from person to person via the Internet.</div>

How long can the high last?On the 1st January 2019, the South China Post[1]published a story on Vitasoy International Holdings (Vitasoy 0345.HK) entitled “Cooler than Marijuana”.[2]Whilst this related to the huge internet memes[3]following of Vitasoy’s lemon tea in China, it could also be applied to the stock price performance, and high valuation multiple:Since June 2013 Vitasoy’s stock price was up more than 327% and has, with dividends provided a total return of 344%, which compares to the Hang Seng index return of 29% over this period.The current share price and consensus calls for a historical price earnings multiple of circa 74 times and 1 year forward of circa 53 times, relative to peer multiples of 24x times and 18 times. The stock trades on a fiscal 2019 forecast of 54.9x and presents with consensus EPS growth of 31%, which by anyone’s standards is expensive.With Vitasoy’s lack of research coverage by mainstream houses, the fact that they are due to report their fiscal 2019 March year-end earnings on 20th June 2019, and an expectation of slower growth ahead, our initial bias is one of negativity. In this report, we examine whether the stock warrants the multiple awarded to it by the market.However, with Vitasoy entering the Hong Kong MSCI Index in May, we ask - when is the right time to purchase a stock, with a solid fundamental case and earnings influenced by China’s burgeoning consumer base.[1] South China Morning Post, 1st January 2019, “Cooler than marijuana? Hong Kong’s iconic Vitasoy drinks brand is on a high thanks to Chinese memes”, https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2179562/cooler-marijuana-hong-kongs-iconic-vitasoy-drinks-brand-high[2] The Article cites that: “Its iconic lemon tea is so popular in the world’s biggest beverage market that internet users are jokingly comparing the experience of savouring the sweet-and-sour taste to that of smoking marijuana.”[3] An Internet meme, commonly known as just a meme (/miːm/ MEEM), is an activity, concept, catchphrase, or piece of media that spreads, often as mimicry or for humorous purposes, from person to person via the Internet.

Notes from the Silk Road: Vitasoy Int'nl Holdings (0345.HK) - Cooler than Marijuana? (Short Note)

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Drinking milk products value sales grow by 4% to reach TWD28.5 billion in 2017</li><li>Prices for leading milk brands rise in 2017</li><li>Milk alternatives, fuelled by sales of soy milk, is the fastest-growing major category in 2017, with value sales rising by 5%</li><li>Rising costs of inputs drive a healthy increase in the average unit prices in 2017</li><li>Uni-President Enterprises Corp maintains the leading role in drinking milk products in 2017</li><li>Drinking milk products is anticipated to post a value CAGR of 1% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, and reach TWD29.2 billion in 2022</li></ul>

Drinking milk products value sales grow by 4% to reach TWD28.5 billion in 2017Prices for leading milk brands rise in 2017Milk alternatives, fuelled by sales of soy milk, is the fastest-growing major category in 2017, with value sales rising by 5%Rising costs of inputs drive a healthy increase in the average unit prices in 2017Uni-President Enterprises Corp maintains the leading role in drinking milk products in 2017Drinking milk products is anticipated to post a value CAGR of 1% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, and reach TWD29.2 billion in 2022

Sector Capsule: Drinking Milk Products in Taiwan

Taiwan

Standard Foods Corporation manufactures and sells powdered milk, cooking oil, baby foods, cereals, drinking water, and herbal drinks.  The Company operates as an agent to market Mentos candies.

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Standard Foods (1227 TT)

Asia Short Interest: Kuaishou, HKEX, SHK, Anta, Nexon, Toshiba, Toyo Tire, HIS, Hynix, TSMC, UMC

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

EM Outperforming; Favor EM over EAFE

China (MSCI China, Shenzhen A Share) offers a plethora of attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s report. Taiwan (TAIEX) is another focus...

Vermilion Research

Notes from the Silk Road: Vitasoy Int'l Holdings (0345.HK) - How Long Can the High Last? (Full Note)

How long can the high last?On the 1st January 2019, the South China Post[1]published a story on Vitasoy International Holdings (Vitasoy 0345.HK)...

David Lepper

Notes from the Silk Road: Vitasoy Int'nl Holdings (0345.HK) - Cooler than Marijuana? (Short Note)

How long can the high last?On the 1st January 2019, the South China Post[1]published a story on Vitasoy International Holdings (Vitasoy 0345.HK)...

David Lepper

Sector Capsule: Drinking Milk Products in Taiwan

Drinking milk products value sales grow by 4% to reach TWD28.5 billion in 2017 Prices for leading milk brands rise in 2017 Milk alternatives,...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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