Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> broke out to a new YTD high.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.

Sands China (1928 HK) had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.


China Feihe (6186 HK) broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  Techtronic Industries (669 HK) broke out to a new YTD high.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

<ul>
<li>ETF flows showed subdued activity during the week although the Southbound Connect platform had a minor outflow.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> both had positive news sentiment helping their share prices rally on better earnings announcements.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> announced a major asset impairment write-down sending its stock to historic lows.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)</a> disappointed on 2Q24 sales and profits.
</li>
</ul>


ETF flows showed subdued activity during the week although the Southbound Connect platform had a minor outflow.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and China Feihe (6186 HK) both had positive news sentiment helping their share prices rally on better earnings announcements.


New World Development (17 HK) announced a major asset impairment write-down sending its stock to historic lows.  China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) disappointed on 2Q24 sales and profits.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dali-foods-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1082:1" rel="noopener">Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)</a>'s scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 23 August. The IFA considers the HK$3.75 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. </li>
<li>Sector sentiment has modestly weakened. This looks done. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.6% and 34.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)'s scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 23 August. The IFA considers the HK$3.75 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. 
Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
Sector sentiment has modestly weakened. This looks done. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.6% and 34.8%, respectively.


Dali Foods (3799 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 August

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dali-foods-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1082:1" rel="noopener">Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)</a> disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from the founder at HK$3.75 per share, a 37.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$2.72 on 20 June).</li>
<li>Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. </li>
<li>The price is final. While the offer price is unattractive compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, this looks like a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Dali Foods Group (3799 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from the founder at HK$3.75 per share, a 37.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$2.72 on 20 June).
Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
The price is final. While the offer price is unattractive compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, this looks like a done deal. 


Dali Foods (3799 HK): Founder’s Privatisation Offer at HK$3.75

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

Hong Kong

Vitasoy International Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes food and beverages.

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Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Hong Kong tech sector is key to lead the market higher. Lower volatility & decreased short selling volume provide tailwinds for HSTECH index. Sands...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

China Feihe beat estmates for 2Q with higher profits and GW Motor substantially increased international sales of EV's. NWD will take a large asset...

David Mudd

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 August

Sector sentiment has modestly weakened, helping the YES vote. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the annualised spread is 34.8%....

Arun George

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Founder’s Privatisation Offer at HK$3.75

The price is final. While the offer price is unattractive compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, this looks like a done deal.

Arun George

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

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