Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*  Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory requirements, and debt/GDP cap - accelerating NPLs to follow.  Investment SummaryThe Vietnamese banking sector is falling off of a cliff, with valuations declining 5.8% over the last 30 days. Only consumer-focused VP Bank (VPB VN) has posted a positive  return (up 11.5%) over the period. In our view, there is certainly more to go with valuations at…

*  Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory requirements, and debt/GDP cap - accelerating NPLs to follow.  Investment SummaryThe Vietnamese banking sector is falling off of a cliff, with valuations declining 5.8% over the last 30 days. Only consumer-focused VP Bank (VPB VN) has posted a positive  return (up 11.5%) over the period. In our view, there is certainly more to go with valuations at…

Equity Bottom-Up

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN/HDB.US) continues to post strong net profit growth underpinned by strong lending growth (19% YoY in F18) with market share gains both in retail and wholesale. HDFC Bank, unlike its competitors, also has de miminis balance sheet stress, while its cost of funds is the lowest among all Indian banks. More importantly, HDFC…

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit. Investment SummaryHDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN/HDB.US) continues to post strong net profit growth underpinned by strong lending growth (19% YoY in F18) with market share gains both in retail and wholesale. HDFC Bank, unlike its competitors, also has de miminis balance sheet stress, while its cost of funds is the lowest among all Indian banks. More importantly, HDFC…

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable:  Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the pivot toward Asia; b) focus on the international network; c) turn around the US business; and d) invest for future growth.* New Plan Does Not Add Up: That said, the updated strategic plan is confusing and very simply does not add up – especially considering that HSBC will be limiting loan growth to 1-2% per annum. The greater than 6% RoTE target for…

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable:  Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the pivot toward Asia; b) focus on the international network; c) turn around the US business; and d) invest for future growth.* New Plan Does Not Add Up: That said, the updated strategic plan is confusing and very simply does not add up – especially considering that HSBC will be limiting loan growth to 1-2% per annum. The greater than 6% RoTE target for…

HSBC Holdings Plc– New Strategic Plan Is Complete Nonsense

* Questionable Restructuring Plan: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.NY) [Deutsche] announced a dramatic restructuring plan with targets which are likely too optimistic.* A US Problem Institution: The FDIC – following the Federal Reserve’s lead from a year ago – placed Deutsche US on problem institution status, citing operational weakness.* S&amp;P Downgrade:  Deutsche’s shares now trading in the single digits and CDS spreads are significantly wider. The belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that…

* Questionable Restructuring Plan: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.NY) [Deutsche] announced a dramatic restructuring plan with targets which are likely too optimistic.* A US Problem Institution: The FDIC – following the Federal Reserve’s lead from a year ago – placed Deutsche US on problem institution status, citing operational weakness.* S&amp;P Downgrade:  Deutsche’s shares now trading in the single digits and CDS spreads are significantly wider. The belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that…

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

In the wake of the news about Barclay's potential acquisition of Standard Chartered, we had a chat with a friend who works for the potential target company. In Thailand, this deal itself is probably not a big issue as it is globally or in London. Barclays only has limited investment banking presence here, though Standard Chartered, even after selling off its retail business to TISCO, still has a large corporate loans portfolio, legacy of long years of operations as well as its long-ago…

In the wake of the news about Barclay's potential acquisition of Standard Chartered, we had a chat with a friend who works for the potential target company. In Thailand, this deal itself is probably not a big issue as it is globally or in London. Barclays only has limited investment banking presence here, though Standard Chartered, even after selling off its retail business to TISCO, still has a large corporate loans portfolio, legacy of long years of operations as well as its long-ago…

Sathorn Series E: New Wave of Bank Mergers?

United Kingdom

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

Vietnam Banking Sector - Stop, It Hurts

* Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory...

Thomas J. Monaco

HDFC Bank – Rocking and Rolling

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit....

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC Holdings Plc– New Strategic Plan Is Complete Nonsense

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable: Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank - Good Night Moon

* Questionable Restructuring Plan: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.NY) [Deutsche] announced a dramatic restructuring plan with targets which are likely...

Thomas J. Monaco

Sathorn Series E: New Wave of Bank Mergers?

In the wake of the news about Barclay's potential acquisition of Standard Chartered, we had a chat with a friend who works for the potential target...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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