Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from <a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp52" target="_blank"> Harvard Study</a>, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from  Harvard Study, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

Freelance Research Analyst

Tay Hock Meng

Chip Eng Seng Corporation Limited (CES) was declared as the winner for the 262,577 sq ft land site at New Upper Changi Road/Bedok South Avenue 3 (Parcel B) after beating out seven other competitors with a bid of $419.38 million, or $761 psf per plot ratio (psf ppr). However, when facing an existing supply of 2,056 units coming mainly from three relatively new condominium projects, including Eco, Urban Vista, and The Glades, CES might need to price the units that will at least allow them to at least breakeven, or earn a small profit.

Chip Eng Seng Corporation Limited (CES) was declared as the winner for the 262,577 sq ft land site at New Upper Changi Road/Bedok South Avenue 3 (Parcel B) after beating out seven other competitors with a bid of $419.38 million, or $761 psf per plot ratio (psf ppr). However, when facing an existing supply of 2,056 units coming mainly from three relatively new condominium projects, including Eco, Urban Vista, and The Glades, CES might need to price the units that will at least allow them to at least breakeven, or earn a small profit.

Chip Eng Seng Wins Site at New Upper Changi Road

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

It was bad enough in 1H15 when STAN had three regions reporting losses and some were small. Now it has essentially all regions reporting losses for year 2015, the second half particularly bad, with far higher impairment costs and not only credit related, but also for goodwill. Only Greater China is now reporting a reasonable profit, with ASEAN just above zero, and all others in a net loss.  This though must be bittersweet; we are not sure how this region – which includes HK, China, Taiwan and…

It was bad enough in 1H15 when STAN had three regions reporting losses and some were small. Now it has essentially all regions reporting losses for year 2015, the second half particularly bad, with far higher impairment costs and not only credit related, but also for goodwill. Only Greater China is now reporting a reasonable profit, with ASEAN just above zero, and all others in a net loss.  This though must be bittersweet; we are not sure how this region – which includes HK, China, Taiwan and…

It’s as if the bank had no idea about the credit cycle in the first few quarters of last year. HSBC was expensing about US$700 million a quarter very steadily – which is also curious. It feels to us the bank was caught out, trying to keep profit respectable, but the economics of its clients made it impossible to continue.

It’s as if the bank had no idea about the credit cycle in the first few quarters of last year. HSBC was expensing about US$700 million a quarter very steadily – which is also curious. It feels to us the bank was caught out, trying to keep profit respectable, but the economics of its clients made it impossible to continue.

The results for DBS could have been a lot worse. This is often a recurring theme with banks, as credit costs are limited in the hope of an ensuing recovery. But even so, the details of the data released by DBS are telling, even if not yet dire.  The bank’s Greater China region turned to loss of S$5 million in 4Q15. This was mostly due to less top line, rather than credit costs though. The limit in credit costs is already a red flag. It is unclear how the bank’s China lending requires only…

The results for DBS could have been a lot worse. This is often a recurring theme with banks, as credit costs are limited in the hope of an ensuing recovery. But even so, the details of the data released by DBS are telling, even if not yet dire.  The bank’s Greater China region turned to loss of S$5 million in 4Q15. This was mostly due to less top line, rather than credit costs though. The limit in credit costs is already a red flag. It is unclear how the bank’s China lending requires only…

Hong Kong

Standard Chartered plc is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.  The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (2888 HK)

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and...

Charles De Trenck

Chip Eng Seng Wins Site at New Upper Changi Road

Chip Eng Seng Corporation Limited (CES) was declared as the winner for the 262,577 sq ft land site at New Upper Changi Road/Bedok South Avenue 3...

Tay Hock Meng

Almost All Regions in Loss at STAN

It was bad enough in 1H15 when STAN had three regions reporting losses and some were small. Now it has essentially all regions reporting losses for...

Daniel Tabbush

Spectacular Loss for HSBC

It’s as if the bank had no idea about the credit cycle in the first few quarters of last year. HSBC was expensing about US$700 million a quarter...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS Moves to Loss in Greater China

The results for DBS could have been a lot worse. This is often a recurring theme with banks, as credit costs are limited in the hope of an ensuing...

Daniel Tabbush

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