Freelance Research Analyst

Tay Hock Meng

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Residential properties in Singapore suffered its 10th consecutive quarterly decline in prices as shown in the latest flash estimates by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). The overall quarterly private residential property price index declined by 0.7% in 1Q2016 ending March 31, 2016 compared to a 0.5% decline in the final quarter of 2015. Overall, from its peaks in 2013, residential property prices have declined by almost 9%. The successive rounds of residential property price declines are expected to continue given that the Finance Minister, Heng Swee Kiat has ruled out any removal of property cooling measures as per the Budget 2016 statement he made in Parliament on March 24.

Residential properties in Singapore suffered its 10th consecutive quarterly decline in prices as shown in the latest flash estimates by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). The overall quarterly private residential property price index declined by 0.7% in 1Q2016 ending March 31, 2016 compared to a 0.5% decline in the final quarter of 2015. Overall, from its peaks in 2013, residential property prices have declined by almost 9%. The successive rounds of residential property price declines are expected to continue given that the Finance Minister, Heng Swee Kiat has ruled out any removal of property cooling measures as per the Budget 2016 statement he made in Parliament on March 24.  

Longest Losing Streak of Home Price Declines in Singapore

Asia's Leading Online Property Group, PropertyGuru

Bjorn Sprengers

Asia's Leading Online Property Group

PropertyGuru

PropertyGuru Pte Ltd owns and operates a real estate property information website. The Company offers facilities to search for condominiums, apartments, Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, serviced apartments, houses, and commercial properties to rent and buy in Singapore.

There are few locations more aspirational in Singapore for property ownership than Districts 9, 10 and 11. We’ll take a look at the numbers, and see if this is the right time to invest.<ul><li>Prime-location properties in Singapore have taken a hit from cooling measures</li><li>Transaction volumes, especially in flipping activity, have fallen, with only a few bright sparks in recent property launches exciting the market</li><li>Rental prices have fallen 13 percent over 12 quarters, even as volumes have risen on the back of shorter leases and more frequent tenant changeover</li><li>Most market watchers believe the prime property market is entering a trough, and it could be a good time for investors to re-look at this location</li></ul>

There are few locations more aspirational in Singapore for property ownership than Districts 9, 10 and 11. We’ll take a look at the numbers, and see if this is the right time to invest.Prime-location properties in Singapore have taken a hit from cooling measuresTransaction volumes, especially in flipping activity, have fallen, with only a few bright sparks in recent property launches exciting the marketRental prices have fallen 13 percent over 12 quarters, even as volumes have risen on the back of shorter leases and more frequent tenant changeoverMost market watchers believe the prime property market is entering a trough, and it could be a good time for investors to re-look at this location

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We presume there is some posturing and positioning amongst banks, to be sure no single bank is too out of line and reported rates of growth are similarly poor.  Gone are the days of heady growth, which is no surprise, given the ramp up of bad loans, worsening credit growth and pressure on net interest margins. As we look at a few of China’s banks newly…

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We presume there is some posturing and positioning amongst banks, to be sure no single bank is too out of line and reported rates of growth are similarly poor.  Gone are the days of heady growth, which is no surprise, given the ramp up of bad loans, worsening credit growth and pressure on net interest margins. As we look at a few of China’s banks newly…

China Bank Profit on the Way to Contraction

<ul><li>BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights</li><li>In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assets</li><li>The risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the most</li><li>Australia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convinced</li><li>Hang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears</li></ul>

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weightsIn all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assetsThe risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the mostAustralia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convincedHang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears 

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

<ul><li>Given the tight &amp; very light volumes last week, we really need everyone back in their trading seats to get a lay of the land</li><li>Key question still remains, is this US Dollar bounce the real thing? Or a head fake to another move lower</li><li>Being neither too smart nor too foolish, KVP is doing one of the hardest things a trader/Portfolio Manager can do, sitting on the side lines &amp; waiting…</li><li>Let the currents of probability dictate when its time to act… cause right now…  apart from some downside exposure through equity puts or VIX calls for the portfolio (equity vol is too low), things are looking neither here nor there…</li><li>WK 13: End of !Q16, US PCE &amp; NFP due, plus PMIs in full swing &amp; liquidity should be returning to the markets post the hols</li></ul>

Given the tight &amp; very light volumes last week, we really need everyone back in their trading seats to get a lay of the landKey question still remains, is this US Dollar bounce the real thing? Or a head fake to another move lowerBeing neither too smart nor too foolish, KVP is doing one of the hardest things a trader/Portfolio Manager can do, sitting on the side lines &amp; waiting…Let the currents of probability dictate when its time to act… cause right now…  apart from some downside exposure through equity puts or VIX calls for the portfolio (equity vol is too low), things are looking neither here nor there…WK 13: End of !Q16, US PCE &amp; NFP due, plus PMIs in full swing &amp; liquidity should be returning to the markets post the hols

Global Macro Take: WK 13. Sitting on the Side-Lines… for Now

Hong Kong

Standard Chartered plc is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.  The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (2888 HK)

Longest Losing Streak of Home Price Declines in Singapore

Residential properties in Singapore suffered its 10th consecutive quarterly decline in prices as shown in the latest flash estimates by the Urban...

Tay Hock Meng

Time to Look at Prime Properties?

There are few locations more aspirational in Singapore for property ownership than Districts 9, 10 and 11. We’ll take a look at the numbers, and...

PropertyGuru

China Bank Profit on the Way to Contraction

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Regulatory Changes to Credit Risk

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets,...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Macro Take: WK 13. Sitting on the Side-Lines… for Now

Given the tight & very light volumes last week, we really need everyone back in their trading seats to get a lay of the land Key question...

Kay Van-Petersen

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