Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Regional banks with cash and assets exceeding the value of their uninsured deposits being sold off is a clear signal that the regional banking crisis may be getting systemic.</li>
<li>Stock market investors living in 'central bank and earnings lalaland' underestimate the indirect impact of the banking crisis on lending and economic activity.</li>
<li>Big Tech valuation and slower earnings and revenue growth pose a risk to the overall stock markets, while Bitcoin and Gold offer additional diversification.</li>
</ul>


Regional banks with cash and assets exceeding the value of their uninsured deposits being sold off is a clear signal that the regional banking crisis may be getting systemic.
Stock market investors living in 'central bank and earnings lalaland' underestimate the indirect impact of the banking crisis on lending and economic activity.
Big Tech valuation and slower earnings and revenue growth pose a risk to the overall stock markets, while Bitcoin and Gold offer additional diversification.


Weekly Market Monitor (18) - The Bank Domino Continues

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Bank jitters touted to resurface in May with growth concerns topping falling inflation data. SPX MACD in focus as a key bearish driver.</li>
<li>KRE bear break below 42 support targets 32.40 and will bleed into the SPX and the global cycle.</li>
<li>MACD cycle trough expected near mid-June and will set the stage for a bull recovery. Until then we are selling bounces per our May/June negative cycle.</li>
</ul>


Bank jitters touted to resurface in May with growth concerns topping falling inflation data. SPX MACD in focus as a key bearish driver.
KRE bear break below 42 support targets 32.40 and will bleed into the SPX and the global cycle.
MACD cycle trough expected near mid-June and will set the stage for a bull recovery. Until then we are selling bounces per our May/June negative cycle.


<ul>
<li>A banking crisis is systemic when two conditions are met: Significant signs of financial distress and significant banking policy intervention measures in response.</li>
<li>To determine financial stress, we look at bank failures, deposits, spreads, and market performance. In addition, the US banking system’s market value of assets is USD 2.2 trillion below book.</li>
<li>Next, we examine the size of the policy response and reveal it is getting close to the levels seen during systemic banking crises.</li>
</ul>


A banking crisis is systemic when two conditions are met: Significant signs of financial distress and significant banking policy intervention measures in response.
To determine financial stress, we look at bank failures, deposits, spreads, and market performance. In addition, the US banking system’s market value of assets is USD 2.2 trillion below book.
Next, we examine the size of the policy response and reveal it is getting close to the levels seen during systemic banking crises.


The Failure of First Republic: A Systemic Crisis in the Making?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker "sell in May and go away" period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives</li>
<li>This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).</li>
</ul>


The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker "sell in May and go away" period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives
This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).


"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

United States

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to replicate as closely as possible the performance of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index, an equal-weighted index.

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SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE US)

Weekly Market Monitor (18) - The Bank Domino Continues

More regional banks are collapsing, but Powell thought things were improving, recession signals are flashing, but investors believe earnings are...

Jeroen Blokland

KRE Lead Breakdown

Bank jitters touted to resurface in May with growth concerns topping falling inflation data. SPX MACD in focus as a key bearish driver per our May...

Thomas Schroeder

The Failure of First Republic: A Systemic Crisis in the Making?

First Republic Bank was the next domino to fall, and while this banking crisis does not qualify as systemic yet, risks continue to build.

Jeroen Blokland

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...

Vermilion Research

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value Poised to Outperform?; Watching Semiconductors $SOXX $XSD and Banks $KRE $KBE for breakage....

Vermilion Research

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