Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

The UK’s referendum to exit Europe and the ensuing gyrations in global markets warned us against complacency in the face of event risk. Vigilance for unexpected surges in risk-aversion is all the more merited given some signals that the flood of ever-greater liquidity from developed country central banks may soon be peaking.If unconventional policy bears diminishing returns, as cautioned recently in reports from the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/060815.pdf" target="_blank">IMF</a> (citing spillover risks) and <a href="http://www.bis.org/publ/work570.pdf" target="_blank">BIS</a>, it may be possible that either risks associated with over-accommodation or the more manageable risks of exit will inevitably drive volatility higher.  We take stock of some of the most obvious event risks, as well as risks not yet associated with a specific event or events that might also emerge as catalysts in latter 2016, and their potential impact on currency and asset markets.

The UK’s referendum to exit Europe and the ensuing gyrations in global markets warned us against complacency in the face of event risk. Vigilance for unexpected surges in risk-aversion is all the more merited given some signals that the flood of ever-greater liquidity from developed country central banks may soon be peaking.If unconventional policy bears diminishing returns, as cautioned recently in reports from the IMF (citing spillover risks) and BIS, it may be possible that either risks associated with over-accommodation or the more manageable risks of exit will inevitably drive volatility higher.  We take stock of some of the most obvious event risks, as well as risks not yet associated with a specific event or events that might also emerge as catalysts in latter 2016, and their potential impact on currency and asset markets.

Event Risks, Catalysts and Volatility in Latter 2016

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into building such a portfolio. It did involve risk taking and periods of relative volatility. I have found several golden rules, also based on failures of up close experiences from myself and others. My hands down worse investment was not cutting losses in certain names into the 2008 crash – most notably Citigroup shares, some of which I was forcibly locked into owing to management options with false information from HR. GE was another counter I took a beating on in 2008+.But some 2009-09 investment lessons I found mirrored some of my 1987-88 market crash lessons. Over time I have reduced volatility in my portfolio.  My main lesson for my conservative investment style was that buying into the heart of a crash takes quite a bit of time and patience to claw back to break even on average picks.  But in the end I stuck to this value style for increasing positions a number of times over the years. What follows is a no-holds barred account of my rules based investments, and losses and gains which have led to decent long-term performance despite a few scary gaps.The second half of this piece is a dialogue with a global investor friend of 15-20 years.

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into building such a portfolio. It did involve risk taking and periods of relative volatility. I have found several golden rules, also based on failures of up close experiences from myself and others. My hands down worse investment was not cutting losses in certain names into the 2008 crash – most notably Citigroup shares, some of which I was forcibly locked into owing to management options with false information from HR. GE was another counter I took a beating on in 2008+.But some 2009-09 investment lessons I found mirrored some of my 1987-88 market crash lessons. Over time I have reduced volatility in my portfolio.  My main lesson for my conservative investment style was that buying into the heart of a crash takes quite a bit of time and patience to claw back to break even on average picks.  But in the end I stuck to this value style for increasing positions a number of times over the years. What follows is a no-holds barred account of my rules based investments, and losses and gains which have led to decent long-term performance despite a few scary gaps.The second half of this piece is a dialogue with a global investor friend of 15-20 years.

Building a Rules Based Perpetual Portfolio(Incl Global Investor Q & A)

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Pokémon GO and the world of container shipping as we knew it<blockquote> “Dad, have you heard of Pokémon Go, can kids play it, when can I download it”, “Dad, for this birthday can you download for me the Lego Marvel's Avengers game”, “ Mom, can you please download this character for me”. </blockquote>That is my 9-year-old son asking for his reward after he has done his homework. A portion of his pocket money is now spent on the iTunes app store, that is the share lost by traditional retailers. He does love Lego and buys…

Pokémon GO and the world of container shipping as we knew it “Dad, have you heard of Pokémon Go, can kids play it, when can I download it”, “Dad, for this birthday can you download for me the Lego Marvel's Avengers game”, “ Mom, can you please download this character for me”. That is my 9-year-old son asking for his reward after he has done his homework. A portion of his pocket money is now spent on the iTunes app store, that is the share lost by traditional retailers. He does love Lego and buys…

DMER Shorts: Pokémon GO and the World of Container Shipping as We Knew It

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical market continuing to break down.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12491" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1">Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US)</a>, for its part, was lucky and managed to announce a US$1.5bn common stock offering to continue delevering its B/S. But where does this commodities complex correction lead us from here? What is the most likely pattern to test for?I think we need to be ready for a test to the downside and…

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical market continuing to break down.  Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US), for its part, was lucky and managed to announce a US$1.5bn common stock offering to continue delevering its B/S. But where does this commodities complex correction lead us from here? What is the most likely pattern to test for?I think we need to be ready for a test to the downside and…

Is The Commodities Complex Breaking Down All Over Again?

Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

<blockquote>“Speculation is a hard and trying business, and a speculator must be on the job all the time or he'll soon have no job to be on.” - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, 1923</blockquote>My first day at <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaranth_Advisors" target="_blank">Amaranth </a>could have been my last.After my Masters at Yale back in 2003, I joined this American multi-strategy Hedge Fund in Greenwich, Connecticut. It was my very first experience working in the rough-and-tumble world of a trading floor in the global hedge fund industry. I rescinded my trading position back in…

“Speculation is a hard and trying business, and a speculator must be on the job all the time or he'll soon have no job to be on.” - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, 1923My first day at Amaranth could have been my last.After my Masters at Yale back in 2003, I joined this American multi-strategy Hedge Fund in Greenwich, Connecticut. It was my very first experience working in the rough-and-tumble world of a trading floor in the global hedge fund industry. I rescinded my trading position back in…

10 Years' Anniversary of the Collapse of Hedge Fund Amaranth - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Event Risks, Catalysts and Volatility in Latter 2016

The UK’s referendum to exit Europe and the ensuing gyrations in global markets warned us against complacency in the face of event risk. Vigilance...

Naomi Fink

Building a Rules Based Perpetual Portfolio(Incl Global Investor Q & A)

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into...

Charles De Trenck

DMER Shorts: Pokémon GO and the World of Container Shipping as We Knew It

Pokémon GO and the world of container shipping as we knew it “Dad, have you heard of Pokémon Go, can kids play it, when can I download it”, “Dad,...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Is The Commodities Complex Breaking Down All Over Again?

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical...

Charles De Trenck

10 Years' Anniversary of the Collapse of Hedge Fund Amaranth - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

“Speculation is a hard and trying business, and a speculator must be on the job all the time or he'll soon have no job to be on.” - Reminiscences...

Tan Chin-Hwee

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