Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<strong>Russia:</strong> Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.</li>
<li>
<strong>Mexico:</strong> Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.</li>
<li>
<strong>China:</strong> CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.</li>
</ul><p>The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…</p>



Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.

Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.

China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.
The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<p>Few would beg to differ that the festive shopping season is the busiest and most prosperous time of year for luxury retailers, both online and on the high street. Indeed, hoards of affluent shoppers from all corners of the world flock to some of the world’s most glamorous shopping streets looking for both the ultimate gift for their loved ones as well as the sheer excitement and experience of shopping at this time of year.</p>

Few would beg to differ that the festive shopping season is the busiest and most prosperous time of year for luxury retailers, both online and on the high street. Indeed, hoards of affluent shoppers from all corners of the world flock to some of the world’s most glamorous shopping streets looking for both the ultimate gift for their loved ones as well as the sheer excitement and experience of shopping at this time of year.

Developed Markets Compete for Share of Tourist Spend in Run-Up to Festive Luxury Shopping

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

<p>Note: wins and losses are listed at the end of the piece.</p><p>Transport has been on a roll. A month ago we saw crazy buying any which way with weak names rising more than better names. US Rail has done ok though not stellar. US Airlines have done better. Especially after Warren Buffett portfolio managers did the unthinkable and bought <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3663" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3663:1">American Airlines Group Inc (AAL US)</a>, DAL US and UAL US (announced mid Nov). But US airlines is a whole other turnaround story. Not your run of the mill core transport…</p>

Note: wins and losses are listed at the end of the piece.Transport has been on a roll. A month ago we saw crazy buying any which way with weak names rising more than better names. US Rail has done ok though not stellar. US Airlines have done better. Especially after Warren Buffett portfolio managers did the unthinkable and bought American Airlines Group Inc (AAL US), DAL US and UAL US (announced mid Nov). But US airlines is a whole other turnaround story. Not your run of the mill core transport…

The Rally in Transport Continues in Twists and Turns

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

<p>Increasingly, Thai markets are expected to be more turbulent in 2017 than they had been in this year. With Renzi's defeat, most of the press also pointed to possible breakup (at least a partial one) of the Euro bloc with the upcoming Dutch and French elections. In this review, we also discuss the recent acquisitions of two digital TV channels by top ranked Thai-coons. In conclusion,</p><ul><li>we see significant downside on Thai equities during the first half on capital outflows and negative market shocks. However, we also explain the silver lining that could lead to significant upside in H2'17.</li><li>with the emergence of these new Thai-coons in the media sector, we think there is little let down on the intensity of competition. However, the status quo will hardly change given their inexperience relative to already strong platforms such as BEC, Channel 7, and MONO.</li></ul>

Increasingly, Thai markets are expected to be more turbulent in 2017 than they had been in this year. With Renzi's defeat, most of the press also pointed to possible breakup (at least a partial one) of the Euro bloc with the upcoming Dutch and French elections. In this review, we also discuss the recent acquisitions of two digital TV channels by top ranked Thai-coons. In conclusion,we see significant downside on Thai equities during the first half on capital outflows and negative market shocks. However, we also explain the silver lining that could lead to significant upside in H2'17.with the emergence of these new Thai-coons in the media sector, we think there is little let down on the intensity of competition. However, the status quo will hardly change given their inexperience relative to already strong platforms such as BEC, Channel 7, and MONO.

Times of Trouble: Italy, Europe, & Digital TV

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>Overweighting EM versus DM and global resources/deep cyclicals looked like a compelling contrarian bet coming into Q1 as consensus bearishness reached an extreme.</li>
<li><div>If the reflationary theme persists through 2017, EM equities will outperform bonds - the structural decline in ROE which led to very low P/B ratios now looks over.</div></li>
<li><div>The broad improvement in EM relative macro momentum is reflected in net earnings revision momentum (strongest in MSCI AXJ, with India the exception) and factory PMIs, if not…</div></li>
</ul>


Overweighting EM versus DM and global resources/deep cyclicals looked like a compelling contrarian bet coming into Q1 as consensus bearishness reached an extreme.
If the reflationary theme persists through 2017, EM equities will outperform bonds - the structural decline in ROE which led to very low P/B ratios now looks over.
The broad improvement in EM relative macro momentum is reflected in net earnings revision momentum (strongest in MSCI AXJ, with India the exception) and factory PMIs, if not…


2017 Asset Allocation Outlook: Part 1 – Emerging Markets and Commodities

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia. Mexico: Fitch downgrades...

David Riedel

The Rally in Transport Continues in Twists and Turns

Note: wins and losses are listed at the end of the piece.Transport has been on a roll. A month ago we saw crazy buying any which way with weak...

Charles De Trenck

Times of Trouble: Italy, Europe, & Digital TV

Increasingly, Thai markets are expected to be more turbulent in 2017 than they had been in this year. With Renzi's defeat, most of the press also...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

2017 Asset Allocation Outlook: Part 1 – Emerging Markets and Commodities

Overweighting EM versus DM and global resources/deep cyclicals looked like a compelling contrarian bet coming into Q1 as consensus bearishness...

Sean Maher

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia. Mexico: Fitch downgrades...

David Riedel

Developed Markets Compete for Share of Tourist Spend in Run-Up to Festive Luxury Shopping

Few would beg to differ that the festive shopping season is the busiest and most prosperous time of year for luxury retailers, both online and on...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

The Rally in Transport Continues in Twists and Turns

Note: wins and losses are listed at the end of the piece.Transport has been on a roll. A month ago we saw crazy buying any which way with weak...

Charles De Trenck

Times of Trouble: Italy, Europe, & Digital TV

Increasingly, Thai markets are expected to be more turbulent in 2017 than they had been in this year. With Renzi's defeat, most of the press also...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

2017 Asset Allocation Outlook: Part 1 – Emerging Markets and Commodities

Overweighting EM versus DM and global resources/deep cyclicals looked like a compelling contrarian bet coming into Q1 as consensus bearishness...

Sean Maher