Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.</li><li>This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.</li><li>Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM</li>
<li>Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.</li>
<li>Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.</li>
</ul>


The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM
Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.
Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.


Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).</li><li>Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.</li><li>As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.

Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD

<ul><li>The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.</li><li>The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.</li><li>Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?</li></ul>

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

<ul><li>The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a short-term extension of the FY-2023 budget 3 days before the government was scheduled to shut down.</li><li>The so-called Continuing Resolution (CR) was passed in a 336-95 vote.</li><li>Two Democrats — Reps. Jake Auchincloss (Mass.) and Mike Quigley (Ill.) — and 93 Republicans opposed the bill. </li></ul>

The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a short-term extension of the FY-2023 budget 3 days before the government was scheduled to shut down.The so-called Continuing Resolution (CR) was passed in a 336-95 vote.Two Democrats — Reps. Jake Auchincloss (Mass.) and Mike Quigley (Ill.) — and 93 Republicans opposed the bill. 

US Policy Watch: No Shutdown but Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

10/31/23 we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers as key $SPX $QQQ $IWM supports were being tested. 11/7/23 we argued it was MORE than just...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD

Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go...

Steno Research

US Policy Watch: No Shutdown but Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a short-term extension of the FY-2023 budget 3 days before the government was scheduled to shut...

Steno Research

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