UK: GDP Contraction Before Brexit Bifurcation
UK GDP disappointed expectations in June as output was flat on the month. Together with downward revisions, output contracted by 0.2% q-o-q in...
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Brexit: Bimodal Forecasts and the BoE
The UK’s outlook remains bimodal around Brexit, with shifting probabilities driving market pricing. As the BoE assumes a deal, it has now...
434 Views
UK: Jul-19 Surveys Still in Gloomy Ranges
The services PMI exceeded expectations in Jul-19 as it increased by 1.2 to 51.4. That is towards the top of the range achieved since Brexit...
402 Views
BoE: Still Hawkish in Smooth Brexit Scenario
The MPC was unanimous in leaving policy unchanged again in Aug-19, as expected. Further monetary stimulus from markets pricing risk of no-deal...
417 Views
BoE: Navigating Between Bimodal Scenarios
The BoE conditions its forecasts on government policy, which remains to leave the EU smoothly with a deal, whereas markets must price the risk of...
409 Views