UK: Surveys Smashing Doves in Jan-20
The services PMI surged to 53.9 in Jan-20: 1-point up on the flash and almost four up on Dec-19. The decisive election outcome has crushed...
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BoE: Rate Cut Resisted as Reaction Function Flexes
The MPC split 7-2 again in favour of keeping Bank rate at 0.75%, which surprised some expectations for a rate cut but was consistent with my...
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BoE: Carney’s Parting Policy Mistake?
The MPC seems to have lost confidence in its forecast and become myopic, which increases the weight on recent data weakness. However, those data...
365 Views
UK: Employment Booms Before Boris-Bounce
Employment unexpectedly surged by 208k 3m-o-3m in Nov-19, even ahead of any potential Boris-bounce to other activity data. The labour market still...
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UK: Dec-19 Sales Smashed by Statisticians
The ONS reported retail statistics that simultaneously show an average end to an expansionary year and one of the worst periods on record....
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