Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, eight changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, while there are 16 adds and 12 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock for the ASX100 and ASX200 names. There appears to be large pre-positioning on the deletes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s privatisation may require an ad hoc inclusion prior to the implementation of the September rebalance - ACCC approval is key. </li>
</ul>


There is one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, eight changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), while there are 16 adds and 12 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index.
Passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock for the ASX100 and ASX200 names. There appears to be large pre-positioning on the deletes.

Link Administration (LNK AU)'s privatisation may require an ad hoc inclusion prior to the implementation of the September rebalance - ACCC approval is key. 


S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>A modernised dividend policy reduces uncertainty and leaves room for modest dividend growth </li><li>Reliance on mobile is set to continue to increase — this is good news for now </li><li>Attractive risk reward as SPK transitions to a yield plus growth story</li></ul>

A modernised dividend policy reduces uncertainty and leaves room for modest dividend growth Reliance on mobile is set to continue to increase — this is good news for now Attractive risk reward as SPK transitions to a yield plus growth story

Spark NZ: FY22 Result — Breaking the Quarter Buck!

<ul><li>Spark (SPK) reported a solid FY22 result with EBITDAI of NZ$1,150m – in-line with guidance and our expectations</li><li>They key focus item, however, will be capital management and future dividend policy</li><li>SPK has also changed its definition of free cash flow (FCF) for dividend purposes</li></ul>

Spark (SPK) reported a solid FY22 result with EBITDAI of NZ$1,150m – in-line with guidance and our expectationsThey key focus item, however, will be capital management and future dividend policySPK has also changed its definition of free cash flow (FCF) for dividend purposes

Spark (SPK): FY22 Result – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>FY23 dividend guidance: SPK has historically guided for next year's dividend and we expect it to do so at this year's result</li><li>Capital management after TowerCo sale: At the announcement of the sale of 70% of TowerCo, SPK stated it intends to update its capital management policy at its full year result</li><li>Mobile services growth: We forecast +5% year on year mobile services growth in both 2H22 and FY22 as SPK laps a difficult FY21 period</li></ul>

FY23 dividend guidance: SPK has historically guided for next year's dividend and we expect it to do so at this year's resultCapital management after TowerCo sale: At the announcement of the sale of 70% of TowerCo, SPK stated it intends to update its capital management policy at its full year resultMobile services growth: We forecast +5% year on year mobile services growth in both 2H22 and FY22 as SPK laps a difficult FY21 period

Spark NZ: FY22 Preview — Capital Management in Focus

<ul>
<li>There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>There could be 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, increasing to 8 if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6148:1" rel="noopener">AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU)</a> continues to be halted and if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK)</a> is privatised.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
There could be 6 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), increasing to 8 if AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU) continues to be halted and if Link Administration (LNK) is privatised.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

New Zealand

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) provides digital communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on mobility, data and effortless service, and cost.

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Spark New Zealand (SPK NZ)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

There are a lot of changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices with high impact. There are a few surprises, mainly in the ASX300. Shorts have surged...

Brian Freitas

Spark NZ: FY22 Result — Breaking the Quarter Buck!

Spark delivered another solid performance, with modest growth in operating earnings as strong mobile growth more than offset declining legacy voice...

Forsyth Barr

Spark (SPK): FY22 Result – Initial Impressions

Spark (SPK) reported a solid FY22 result with EBITDAI of NZ$1,150m – in-line with guidance and our expectations

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ: FY22 Preview — Capital Management in Focus

Spark reports its FY22 result on 24 August 2022 and has guided for FY22 EBITDAI of NZ$1,130m to NZ$1,160m and at the 1H22 result stated that it...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

There are a lot of changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices with high impact. There are a few surprises, mainly in the ASX300. Shorts have surged...

Brian Freitas

Spark NZ: FY22 Result — Breaking the Quarter Buck!

Spark delivered another solid performance, with modest growth in operating earnings as strong mobile growth more than offset declining legacy voice...

Forsyth Barr

Spark (SPK): FY22 Result – Initial Impressions

Spark (SPK) reported a solid FY22 result with EBITDAI of NZ$1,150m – in-line with guidance and our expectations

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ: FY22 Preview — Capital Management in Focus

Spark reports its FY22 result on 24 August 2022 and has guided for FY22 EBITDAI of NZ$1,130m to NZ$1,160m and at the 1H22 result stated that it...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears