Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for June 2016.

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for June 2016.

China Property: CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities - June 2016 Data

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016. Non-oil exports as well as non-oil imports are likely to have remained weak in June on a 3mma basis, continuing the trend seen in the first five months of 2016, reflecting the headwinds the economy continues to face on the domestic as well as external front.On a 3mma basis overall exports declined 3.6% y-o-y in June, compared to a rise of 0.9% y-o-y in…

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016. Non-oil exports as well as non-oil imports are likely to have remained weak in June on a 3mma basis, continuing the trend seen in the first five months of 2016, reflecting the headwinds the economy continues to face on the domestic as well as external front.On a 3mma basis overall exports declined 3.6% y-o-y in June, compared to a rise of 0.9% y-o-y in…

China: RMB to Continue to Face Downside Pressure Through 2016

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY and 29% YTD YoY, slower compared to 22% and 34% in May, respectively. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 7% on YoY basis and declined by 3% on YTD YoY basis, improving on the previous month.In absolute terms, YTD (Jan-Jun) national new home sales reached historical highs, while the…

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY and 29% YTD YoY, slower compared to 22% and 34% in May, respectively. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 7% on YoY basis and declined by 3% on YTD YoY basis, improving on the previous month.In absolute terms, YTD (Jan-Jun) national new home sales reached historical highs, while the…

China Data Brief: New Home Sales Growth Slows, Land Sales Growth Less Negative (Jan-Jun)

China

China Cinda Asset Management Company Ltd. provides asset management services. The Company invests, disposes, and manages non-performing assets and equity. China Cinda Asset Management also provides consulting, investment, financial, and risk management services to individuals and businesses.

Pacific Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, custodian, underwriting, trading and investment consulting services.

AnXin Trust Co., Ltd-A is a non-banking financial firm.  The Company's businesses include trust deposit, trust loan, securities trading, financing lease, securities underwriting, and other financial services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also invests in real estate development.

Sealand Securities Co., Ltd. operates as a securities brokerage company. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities trading, securities underwriting and sponsorship, securities asset management, and other services. Sealand Securities provides services in China.


Everbright Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, custody, underwriting, asset management, and investment consulting services.

First Capital Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities underwriting, risk management, securities investment, and other services. First Capital Securities provides its services throughout China.

Huaan Securities Co., Ltd. operates securities institutional brokerage businesses. The Company provides securities brokerage, investment consulting, asset management, margin trading, and other securities services. Huaan Securities also offers investment and financing solution services.

Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd. brokers securities trading, trades securities, underwrites securities, provides securities custody services and financial advising services.

Central China Securities Co., Ltd. is a securities company engaged in the brokerage, investment banking, investment management, and trading businesses primarily in China. The Company trades in stocks, funds, bonds, and commodity and financial futures on behalf of its clients; and provides margin financing, securities lending, and wealth management services.

Shanxi Securities Company Limited provides securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities proprietary trading, securities and asset management, and intermediary services for futures trading companies. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides stock and bond underwriting and sponsorship, commodities and financial futures brokerage services.

Samsung Securities Co.,Ltd. provides personalized asset management services. The Company provides brokerage, investment trust, underwriting services, and other services. Samsung Securities also provides cyber trading, mutual funds, asset backed securities issuing, municipal bonds trading services.

Virtu Financial, Inc. is a technology-enabled market maker and liquidity provider to the global financial markets. The Company posts two-sided quotes in equities, ETFs, commodities, currencies, options, futures, fixed income, and other securities on various exchanges, markets, and liquidity pools around the world.

Guoco Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties as well as provides stock, commodity and bullion broking, insurance, and fund management services.

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. provides investment management services. The Company offers investment strategies spanning various market capitalization segments, region, and investing styles. Artisan Partners Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM US)

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives.

HUB24 Limited is a financial services company.  The Company focuses on the delivery of a platform which supports investors.  The platform is a next-generation service with state-of-the-art portfolio management, transaction, and reporting solutions for licensees, financial advisers, accountants, stockbrokers, and institutions.

Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd. is a financial holding company. The Company operates and controls its financial subsidiaries such as Korea Investment & Securities, Korea Investment Partners, and Korea Investment Mutual Savings Bank.

Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. (071050 KS)

Lazard Ltd provides asset management and financial advisory services. The Company offers advice on mergers and acquisitions, strategic matters, restructuring and capital structure, capital raising and corporate finance, as well as asset management services to corporations, partnerships, institutions, governments and individuals. Lazard serves customers internationally.

NH Investment & Securities Co Ltd provides brokerage, underwriting, and securities dealing services.  The Company's offerings include financial advisory service, online trading, corporate financing, research, foreign exchange service, beneficiary certificates, investment consulting, financial derivatives, bonds, and mutual funds.

Brederode SA is an investment company which actively manages a portfolio of listed and private equity investments.  The Company seeks to provide dividend income, and appreciation on the disposal of investments.  Brederode invests in listed companies it judges to be undervalued.  The Company's private equity investments are fixed-term partnerships in companies in Europe and the US.

Southwest Securities Co., Ltd. operates in the brokerage, investment banking, asset management and the consulting services business.

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Southwest Securities (600369 CH)

China Property: CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities - June 2016 Data

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor...

Robert Ciemniak

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning. Home to large...

Christopher Balding

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators. For a long time, there have been questions...

Daniel Tabbush

China: RMB to Continue to Face Downside Pressure Through 2016

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016....

Rajan Govil

China Data Brief: New Home Sales Growth Slows, Land Sales Growth Less Negative (Jan-Jun)

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY...

Robert Ciemniak

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