TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A blizzard of cost synergies we conservatively estimate at $500MM from lower distribution commissions, hosting costs, and cutting ATVI's highly paid C-Suite.</li>
<li>Multiple strategic benefits: Catalyzes Microsoft's XCloud streaming game service and Game Pass subscription offering....potentially offers greater leverage for app store negotiations with Apple and Google.</li>
<li>Accretive on valuation alone...MSFT is paying a 10% discount to ATVI's 23x average forward PE from last few years. MSFT's 11x forward P/S vs. ATVI's 5.5x revalues ATVI's revenues 2x.</li>
</ul>


A blizzard of cost synergies we conservatively estimate at $500MM from lower distribution commissions, hosting costs, and cutting ATVI's highly paid C-Suite.
Multiple strategic benefits: Catalyzes Microsoft's XCloud streaming game service and Game Pass subscription offering....potentially offers greater leverage for app store negotiations with Apple and Google.
Accretive on valuation alone...MSFT is paying a 10% discount to ATVI's 23x average forward PE from last few years. MSFT's 11x forward P/S vs. ATVI's 5.5x revalues ATVI's revenues 2x.


Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition Is a Stupendous Deal

US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Microsoft’s largest-ever acquisition provides boost for cloud gaming and metaverse ambitions.</li>
<li>Deal comes as Activision Blizzard’s been mired in gender pay disparity and sexual harassment storm.</li>
<li>Controversial CEO Bobby Kotick to continue in his role as head of Activision Blizzard, though WSJ says otherwise.</li>
</ul>


Microsoft’s largest-ever acquisition provides boost for cloud gaming and metaverse ambitions.
Deal comes as Activision Blizzard’s been mired in gender pay disparity and sexual harassment storm.
Controversial CEO Bobby Kotick to continue in his role as head of Activision Blizzard, though WSJ says otherwise.


Microsoft Got Game! Plans to Buy Activision Blizzard for $95/Share or $68.7 Billion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>A few years ago I started this series, and I updated it last year. Since last year, it has been a top 10 insight in terms of views. </p><p>I personally think it is important for investors of all types to understand WHO OWNS WHAT. </p><p>Many fundamental investors are reticent to spend any time on this but there are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive investors in Japan.</p><div><p>Some of the places active investors will see their influence are:</p></div><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Stories intermittently published about the BOJ's presence in Japanese ETFs (especially the fact that it owns 85+% of the outstanding ETF market),</li>
<li>Relatively constant interest in Nikkei 225 rebalances like the one we saw in July 2020, which helped push up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> by 30+% from May to July, then helped it slide 13% in a week, or the changes in the Nikkei 225 review rules published earlier this year which may change what happens this September to a few large caps, and the announcement of the BOJ that it would no longer buy Nikkei 225 ETFs which started a long slide in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> shares against comps and the Nikkei itself. Long "held up" by 'market inventory' and Nikkei 225 ETF buying, when the BOJ stopped, it removed the cushion and existing inventory holders had to sell out. </li>
<li>Then if you look at the shareholder structure of Fast Retailing today, you will see that it is STILL fundamentally a serious problem for large foreign active investors who would actually wish to take an <em>active</em> (but not activist) position. <em>Real World Float</em> on the stock is, by my calculation, less than 15% of shares outstanding. </li>
<li>The relatively recent policy of increased stewardship regarding the passive management portion of the GPIF (the Government Pension Investment Fund) - an investing heavyweight in Japan.</li>
<li>The timing and quantum of after-event support or overhang on corporate actions such as buybacks, secondary offerings, primary offerings, mergers, etc. </li>
<li>Index inclusions mean big flows. If you follow the insights on <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/collections/topix-inclusion/insights?item=54585" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions</a></strong> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> and myself, you will often see big moves. Sometimes these stocks move 50% between when we write about them and when they go into the index. If you own them and are considering an exit, you need to know when to take profits, and the dynamic of the liquidity. If you are thinking about getting in for fundamental reasons, it pays to know early so you can get ahead of the major flow.</li>
<li>The return of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> to the TSE First Section in Q1 this year changed the foreign shareholder percentage ownership, lowering it by 10%. Smartkarma readers knew this last year and in January, which prepared them for the June AGM when the shareholder category ownership was released.</li>
<li>The changes to the TSE's market structure, which will affect TOPIX membership, which will affect many companies' issuance, buyback, share cancellation, etc decisions over the next several months. They are doing this because of the TSE Prime listing rules which will effectively also determine whether or not they will be included in TOPIX in future, or whether they will fall out of TSE Prime and will see constant selling over late 2022 to early 2025. </li>
</ul>
<p>Of course, TOPIX is just over half of the passive tracking AUM in Japan. There's more. </p>
<p>Find out WHO OWNS WHAT in Japan Passive below the fold. </p>
</div>

A few years ago I started this series, and I updated it last year. Since last year, it has been a top 10 insight in terms of views. I personally think it is important for investors of all types to understand WHO OWNS WHAT. Many fundamental investors are reticent to spend any time on this but there are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive investors in Japan.Some of the places active investors will see their influence are:

Stories intermittently published about the BOJ's presence in Japanese ETFs (especially the fact that it owns 85+% of the outstanding ETF market),
Relatively constant interest in Nikkei 225 rebalances like the one we saw in July 2020, which helped push up Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) by 30+% from May to July, then helped it slide 13% in a week, or the changes in the Nikkei 225 review rules published earlier this year which may change what happens this September to a few large caps, and the announcement of the BOJ that it would no longer buy Nikkei 225 ETFs which started a long slide in Fast Retailing (9983 JP) shares against comps and the Nikkei itself. Long "held up" by 'market inventory' and Nikkei 225 ETF buying, when the BOJ stopped, it removed the cushion and existing inventory holders had to sell out. 
Then if you look at the shareholder structure of Fast Retailing today, you will see that it is STILL fundamentally a serious problem for large foreign active investors who would actually wish to take an active (but not activist) position. Real World Float on the stock is, by my calculation, less than 15% of shares outstanding. 
The relatively recent policy of increased stewardship regarding the passive management portion of the GPIF (the Government Pension Investment Fund) - an investing heavyweight in Japan.
The timing and quantum of after-event support or overhang on corporate actions such as buybacks, secondary offerings, primary offerings, mergers, etc. 
Index inclusions mean big flows. If you follow the insights on TOPIX Inclusions by Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA and myself, you will often see big moves. Sometimes these stocks move 50% between when we write about them and when they go into the index. If you own them and are considering an exit, you need to know when to take profits, and the dynamic of the liquidity. If you are thinking about getting in for fundamental reasons, it pays to know early so you can get ahead of the major flow.
The return of Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) to the TSE First Section in Q1 this year changed the foreign shareholder percentage ownership, lowering it by 10%. Smartkarma readers knew this last year and in January, which prepared them for the June AGM when the shareholder category ownership was released.
The changes to the TSE's market structure, which will affect TOPIX membership, which will affect many companies' issuance, buyback, share cancellation, etc decisions over the next several months. They are doing this because of the TSE Prime listing rules which will effectively also determine whether or not they will be included in TOPIX in future, or whether they will fall out of TSE Prime and will see constant selling over late 2022 to early 2025. 

Of course, TOPIX is just over half of the passive tracking AUM in Japan. There's more. 
Find out WHO OWNS WHAT in Japan Passive below the fold. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR</a> and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through an extended secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 22.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>We have looked at the lockup expiry and deal dynamics in our earlier notes.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about share price performance since then.</li>
</ul>



KKR and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through an extended secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 22.3% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP). 
We have looked at the lockup expiry and deal dynamics in our earlier notes.
In this note, we talk about share price performance since then.


Kokusai Electric Placement Updates - Misbehaving

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP).</a>
</li>
<li>The possibility of such a selldown was flagged by Reuters prior to the deal launch.</li>
<li>In our earlier note, we spoke about the deal dynamics. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP).

The possibility of such a selldown was flagged by Reuters prior to the deal launch.
In our earlier note, we spoke about the deal dynamics. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.


Honda Motor Placement - Past Large Deals Analysis - Could Do with a Bit More Correction

Japan

Panasonic Corporation manufactures electric and electronic products. The Company produces home appliances, car navigation systems, digital devices, computer peripherals, telecommunications, industrial equipment, and electronic parts. Panasonic has associated companies around the world.

Sony Corporation manufactures audio, home video game consoles, communications, key device and information technology products for the consumer and professional markets.  The Company's other businesses include music, pictures, computer entertainment, and online businesses.

Sekisui House, Ltd. builds and sells steel-frame and wooden housings. The Company constructs single-family houses, condominiums, and apartment buildings.  Sekisui House also operates real estate brokerage and leasing businesses.  Additionally, the Company sells construction materials.

Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. sells lumber and wood-related construction materials.  The Company constructs and markets a variety of homes, including custom-built wooden houses, and also manufactures and distributes high-value added wood-based products.  Sumitomo Forestry also maintains a significant amount of Japan's forests.

Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd. builds and sells unit residential houses in addition to parcels of land. The Company also manufactures and sells polyvinyl chloride and other plastic products used in, for instance, drainage pipes and bathtubs. Moreover the company is engaged in the production and sale of high performance plastic films, tapes and sheets.

HASEKO Corporation builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings such as condominiums and office buildings.  The Company also operates real estate brokerage, leasing, and management businesses.  Additionally, Haseko provides construction consulting services.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates hotel and financial businesses.

RINNAI CORPORATION manufactures and sells a variety of gas appliances.  The products include cooking equipment for household and commercial use, room and water heating equipment, and laundry dryers.  The Company has subsidiaries in South-eastern Asia, Australia, and the United States.

Iida Group Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company established by the merger between Hajime Construction, Iida Home Max, Touei Housing, Tact Home, Arnest One and ID Home. Its subsidiaries engage in design, construction and sales of residential properties such as single-family houses and condominiums and construction related works.

NIKON CORPORATION manufactures and sells cameras, lenses, semiconductor-related equipment, eyeglasses, microscopes, and measuring instruments.

Fujitsu General Ltd. manufactures air-conditioning units, refrigerators, and information-communication equipment. The products include air conditioners, and purifiers. The Company also manufactures computer software and electronic devices.

Techtronic Industries Company Limited designs, manufactures, and markets power tools, outdoor power equipment, accessories, hand tools, layout and measuring tools, and floorcare and appliances. The Company's products are used by consumers, professional, and industrial users in the home improvement, repair, and construction industries.

Toll Brothers, Inc. builds luxury homes, serving both move-up and empty nester buyers in several regions of the United States.  The Company builds customized single and attached homes, primarily on land that it develops and improves. Toll Brothers also operates its own architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, security, landscape, insurance brokerage, and manufacturing operations.

Haier Smart Home Co. Ltd. manufactures and distributes appliances. The Company produces air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, small household electrical appliances, and other related products. Haier Smart Home markets its products domestically and internationally.

Gree Electric Appliances, Inc. of Zhuhai manufactures and sells a series of air conditioners.  The different series of air conditioners include window type, split type, floor type, mobile type, mobile split type and ceiling type.  The Company also produces air purifier.

LG Electronics Inc. manufactures and markets digital display equipment and home appliances. The Company produces and markets flat panel televisions, A/V products, washing machines, air conditioners and refrigerators as well as telecommunications equipment such as smart phones and tablets.

TopBuild Corp. provides insulation installation services. The Company offers residential insulation products and related accessories. TopBuild serves customers in the United States.

D.R. Horton, Inc. constructs and sells single-family homes designed primarily for the entry-level and move-up markets.  The Company operates in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Southwest, and Western regions of the United States. D.R. Horton also, through its financial services operations, provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers.

NVR, Inc. builds and markets homes and conducts mortgage banking activities. The Company builds single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and other tradenames.  NVR provides a number of mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers and to other customers through its mortgage banking operations.

PulteGroup Inc. sells and constructs homes, and purchases, develops, and sells residential land and develops active adult communities.  The Company also provides mortgage financing, title insurance, and other services to home buyers. Pulte has operations in various markets across the United States and Puerto Rico.

Lennar Corporation constructs and sells single-family attached and detached homes, and to a lesser extent multi-level buildings as well as buys and sells residential land. The Company also provides mortgage financing, title insurance, closing services and other financial services.

Sony Group Corporation manufactures and distributes electronics products and provides related solutions. The Company produces televisions, cameras, mobiles, audio and video products. game equipment, and more. Sony Group also engages in game production,  movie production, music production, and other businesses.

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Sony Corp (SONY US)

Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition Is a Stupendous Deal

Microsoft's acquisition of Activision is a homerun by any measure: strategically, financially, and on valuation. We expect the level of synergies...

Aaron Gabin

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021?

This is the 2021 Version of Who Owns What in Japan Passive. It tries to present a relatively comprehensive idea of how much money/float tracks the...

Travis Lundy

Kokusai Electric Placement Updates - Misbehaving

KKR and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through selling a large stake in Kokusai. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Honda Motor Placement - Past Large Deals Analysis - Could Do with a Bit More Correction

A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP). In this note, we talk about the updates since...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition Is a Stupendous Deal

Microsoft's acquisition of Activision is a homerun by any measure: strategically, financially, and on valuation. We expect the level of synergies...

Aaron Gabin

Microsoft Got Game! Plans to Buy Activision Blizzard for $95/Share or $68.7 Billion

Microsoft 'ain't' playing games. Its planned buy of Activision Blizzard will get regulators' dander up, but the devil's in the detail, and this...

John DeMasi

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021?

This is the 2021 Version of Who Owns What in Japan Passive. It tries to present a relatively comprehensive idea of how much money/float tracks the...

Travis Lundy

Kokusai Electric Placement Updates - Misbehaving

KKR and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through selling a large stake in Kokusai. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Honda Motor Placement - Past Large Deals Analysis - Could Do with a Bit More Correction

A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP). In this note, we talk about the updates since...

Sumeet Singh