IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-diagnostics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24306:1" rel="noopener">Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)</a>’s merger proposal (0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share) fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>While ACCC informal clearance is an overhang, the evidence suggests that clearance should be secured. The shareholder vote risk is low.</li>
<li>The offer terms are attractive. At the last close and for the 14 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/37.3%.  </li>
</ul>


The Capitol Health (CAJ AU) IE considers Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)’s merger proposal (0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share) fair and reasonable. 
While ACCC informal clearance is an overhang, the evidence suggests that clearance should be secured. The shareholder vote risk is low.
The offer terms are attractive. At the last close and for the 14 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/37.3%.  


Capitol Health (CAJ AU): ACCC Overhang as Scheme Meeting Set for 31 October

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a> has entered a binding merger proposal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-diagnostics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24306:1" rel="noopener">Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)</a> at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.</li>
<li>The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. Due to the minimal geographic overlap, ACCC clearance should be forthcoming.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.0%. </li>
</ul>



Capitol Health (CAJ AU) has entered a binding merger proposal with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.
The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. Due to the minimal geographic overlap, ACCC clearance should be forthcoming.
The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.0%. 


Capitol Health (CAJ AU): Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Telstra, BHP, Aristocrat Leisu, Sonic Healthcare, Treasury Wine, Fortescue, Westpac, NAB, ANZ.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Telstra, BHP, Aristocrat Leisu, Sonic Healthcare, Treasury Wine, Fortescue, Westpac, NAB, ANZ.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 21st): Telstra, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, Sonic Healthcare

<ul>
<li>On 17 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a> disclosed a non-binding merger proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-diagnostics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24306:1" rel="noopener">Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)</a> at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.</li>
<li>Integral has been granted a four-week exclusivity period that ends on 15 July. The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.  </li>
</ul>


On 17 June, Capitol Health (CAJ AU) disclosed a non-binding merger proposal from Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) at 0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share.
Integral has been granted a four-week exclusivity period that ends on 15 July. The transaction will require approval from the ACCC and Capitol shareholders. 
The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.  


Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a> will be deleted from the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>Constituent, float and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5% and in a round-trip trade of A$228m.</li>
<li>There are many stocks from the S&amp;P/ASX index family that will have same way or opposing flows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>



IDP Education (IEL AU) and Lendlease Group (LLC AU) will be deleted from the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the June rebalance.
Constituent, float and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5% and in a round-trip trade of A$228m.
There are many stocks from the S&amp;P/ASX index family that will have same way or opposing flows from VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU). 


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: IDP Education (IEL) & Lendlease Group (LLC) Out

Australia

Sonic Healthcare Limited is a medical diagnostics company with operations in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe.  The Company provides a comprehensive range of pathology and diagnostic imaging services to medical practitioners, hospitals and their patients along with providing administrative services and facilities to medical practitioners.

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Sonic Healthcare (SHL AT)

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): ACCC Overhang as Scheme Meeting Set for 31 October

The merger update notes that Integral has proposed to divest a Capitol clinic in Melton, Victoria, to secure ACCC approval. The ACCC provisional...

Arun George

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)

No substantial shareholder has vocally opposed the merger, and the offer price is attractive. The key risk is if Integral becomes a takeover...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 21st): Telstra, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, Sonic Healthcare

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Telstra, BHP, Aristocrat Leisu, Sonic Healthcare,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): All-Scrip Non-Binding Merger with Integral Diagnostics

The offer is attractive compared to historical exchange ratios, trading ranges and peer multiples. At the last close, the gross spread was 11.7%.

Arun George

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: IDP Education (IEL) & Lendlease Group (LLC) Out

IDP Education and Lendlease Group will be deleted from the MV Australia Equal Weight Index. Constituent, float and capping changes will result in 1...

Brian Freitas

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