Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-12705'>Greenland Holdings Corp</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-13359'>Lenovo</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8149'>Longfor Properties</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-315'>Softbank Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8085'>Times China</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Greenland Holdings CorpLenovoLongfor PropertiesSoftbank GroupTimes China

Morning Views Asia: Greenland Holdings Corp, Lenovo, Longfor Properties, Softbank Group, Times China

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Softbank today <a href="https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20220810" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> that the stories circulating about Softbank having hedged a decent portion - 200+mm shares - of its BABA position were true. </li>
<li>The market expectation had been that these pre-paid forwards would be held for another two years. The announcement today is that they will be physically settled early. </li>
<li>This means the entire accounting effect - worth ¥4.6trln - will hit the income statement (and balance sheet) in the current quarter. There are investment and index implications</li>
</ul>


Softbank today confirmed that the stories circulating about Softbank having hedged a decent portion - 200+mm shares - of its BABA position were true. 
The market expectation had been that these pre-paid forwards would be held for another two years. The announcement today is that they will be physically settled early. 
This means the entire accounting effect - worth ¥4.6trln - will hit the income statement (and balance sheet) in the current quarter. There are investment and index implications


Softbank Confirms BABA Selldown - Big Changes on Softie's Balance Sheet and BABA Index Implications

Trung Nguyen

In our view, Softbank Group's (SBG) Q1/22-23 results were dismal, with the company reporting a record loss. This was the second consecutive quarterly loss, after SBG registered a big loss just three months ago. One positive factor is liquidity, with the company holding a large amount of cash after heavily monetising its liquid assets (mostly Alibaba shares) during the quarter. The improvement in LTV despite the steep drop in NAV signals that the ratio, as defined and reported by SBG, is open to the company’s control and manipulation. SBG still has a lot of room to monetise its asset base (JPY 4.5 tn in Alibaba shares and JPY 1.2 tn in T-Mobile/Deutsche Telekom shares). Thus, LTV is no longer meaningful, as the company appears to be able to manipulate the ratio as it wishes, as long as it has liquid assets.

  In our view, Softbank Group's (SBG) Q1/22-23 results were dismal, with the company reporting a record loss. This was the second consecutive quarterly loss, after SBG registered a big loss just three months ago. One positive factor is liquidity, with the company holding a large amount of cash after heavily monetising its liquid assets (mostly Alibaba shares) during the quarter.   The improvement in LTV despite the steep drop in NAV signals that the ratio, as defined and reported by SBG, is open to the company’s control and manipulation. SBG still has a lot of room to monetise its asset base (JPY 4.5 tn in Alibaba shares and JPY 1.2 tn in T-Mobile/Deutsche Telekom shares). Thus, LTV is no longer meaningful, as the company appears to be able to manipulate the ratio as it wishes, as long as it has liquid assets. 

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2022-23 Results - Lucror Analytics

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Softbank posted record quarterly losses again ($23bn this time) after an aggressive writedown of private investments in the portfolio</li>
<li>Vision Fund's cumulative returns since FY17 are now less than $1bn and valuation losses for WeWork at the parent mean VF and related have lost money</li>
<li>The good news is Softbank valuations are more closely aligned with reality whilst a ¥400bn buyback takes some of the sting away but tech values (and ARM) remain a risk</li>
</ul>


Softbank posted record quarterly losses again ($23bn this time) after an aggressive writedown of private investments in the portfolio
Vision Fund's cumulative returns since FY17 are now less than $1bn and valuation losses for WeWork at the parent mean VF and related have lost money
The good news is Softbank valuations are more closely aligned with reality whilst a ¥400bn buyback takes some of the sting away but tech values (and ARM) remain a risk


Softbank Group - Q1 22 Results Reaction: So Many Surprises…a Few Were Positive

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/gajah-tunggal-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Gajah Tunggal</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Hongqiao</a></li><li><a href='/entities/logan-property-holdings-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Logan Property Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sino-ocean-group-holding-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sino-Ocean Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/softbank-group-corp' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Softbank Group</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Gajah TunggalChina HongqiaoLogan Property HoldingsSino-Ocean GroupSoftbank Groupand more...

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Morning Views Asia: Greenland Holdings Corp, Lenovo, Longfor Properties, Softbank Group, Times China

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Softbank Confirms BABA Selldown - Big Changes on Softie's Balance Sheet and BABA Index Implications

Softbank today announced it would early-terminate pre-paid forwards (hedges against 242mm BABA ADRs). This has accounting effects. And index...

Travis Lundy

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2022-23 Results - Lucror Analytics

In our view, Softbank Group's (SBG) Q1/22-23 results were dismal, with the company reporting a record loss. This was the second consecutive...

Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group - Q1 22 Results Reaction: So Many Surprises…a Few Were Positive

Softbank posted record losses for the quarter as it aggressively wrote down the value of its private VF portfolio. That was a surprise as was the...

Kirk Boodry

Weekly Wrap - 05 Aug 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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