Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Nvidia shares are up 61% since it announced the acquisition of ARM.  That is great news for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , which has seen the pro rata value of its potential NVDA shares soar $11bn (87% economic stake) with almost half that gain coming in the last three months. That stands in stark contrast to the SBG share price (-37% since 10 May) or the value of key assets like Alibaba (-12%) or Vision Fund (-2%). In fact, the absolute return for SBG shareholders is now better than what Coupang produced whilst the unrealized gains alone are worth more than Vision Fund’s China ADR portfolio. The downside is Softbank could lose that if regulatory approvals stumble and as China is the likely flashpoint for that, recent worries on China exposure could get even worse.

Nvidia shares are up 61% since it announced the acquisition of ARM.  That is great news for Softbank Group (9984 JP) , which has seen the pro rata value of its potential NVDA shares soar $11bn (87% economic stake) with almost half that gain coming in the last three months. That stands in stark contrast to the SBG share price (-37% since 10 May) or the value of key assets like Alibaba (-12%) or Vision Fund (-2%). In fact, the absolute return for SBG shareholders is now better than what Coupang produced whilst the unrealized gains alone are worth more than Vision Fund’s China ADR portfolio. The downside is Softbank could lose that if regulatory approvals stumble and as China is the likely flashpoint for that, recent worries on China exposure could get even worse.

Softbank Group - ARM Optionality and Exposure Are on the Rise

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - July 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikola-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29029:1" rel="noopener">Nikola Corp (NKLA US)</a> ousted <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-charged-for-allegedly-misleading-investors?sref=Q1XEaVVD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">founder/CEO Trevor Milton was charged in federal court today with criminal and civil fraud</a> for lying to investors for years about “nearly every aspect of the business” to juice the stock price.This comes just two weeks after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> CEO Elon Musk defended himself in court over his role in <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-13/musk-keeps-temper-in-check-in-tesla-solarcity-trial-testimony?sref=Q1XEaVVD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pushing Tesla in 2016 to buy SolarCity</a> for an insupportable $2 billion without revealing its near-bankruptcy distress in order to bail out his relatives who ran it. Tesla already paid $60 million last year to settle the case, but Musk, true to form, stubbornly resists any efforts to hold him accountable for just about anything, no matter the harm.It could cost him $2 billion to refund the purchase price for SolarCity if he loses, and the Tesla shareholders suing have a credible case, but Musk is used to getting off without serious consequences.After all, he has defied courts, federal regulators, police, state and local government authorities for years with little more than a slap on the wrist.But this year things have changed, whether Elon Musk realizes it yet or not.

Nikola Corp (NKLA US) ousted founder/CEO Trevor Milton was charged in federal court today with criminal and civil fraud for lying to investors for years about “nearly every aspect of the business” to juice the stock price.This comes just two weeks after Tesla Motors (TSLA US) CEO Elon Musk defended himself in court over his role in pushing Tesla in 2016 to buy SolarCity for an insupportable $2 billion without revealing its near-bankruptcy distress in order to bail out his relatives who ran it. Tesla already paid $60 million last year to settle the case, but Musk, true to form, stubbornly resists any efforts to hold him accountable for just about anything, no matter the harm.It could cost him $2 billion to refund the purchase price for SolarCity if he loses, and the Tesla shareholders suing have a credible case, but Musk is used to getting off without serious consequences.After all, he has defied courts, federal regulators, police, state and local government authorities for years with little more than a slap on the wrist.But this year things have changed, whether Elon Musk realizes it yet or not.

Nikola's Ex CEO Trevor Milton Arrested for Lying to Investors. Some Ask, "What About Elon?"

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

A few years ago I started this series, and I updated it last year. Since last year, it has been a top 10 insight in terms of views. I personally think it is important for investors of all types to understand WHO OWNS WHAT. Many fundamental investors are reticent to spend any time on this but there are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive investors in Japan.<div>Some of the places active investors will see their influence are:</div><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Stories intermittently published about the BOJ's presence in Japanese ETFs (especially the fact that it owns 85+% of the outstanding ETF market),</li>
<li>Relatively constant interest in Nikkei 225 rebalances like the one we saw in July 2020, which helped push up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> by 30+% from May to July, then helped it slide 13% in a week, or the changes in the Nikkei 225 review rules published earlier this year which may change what happens this September to a few large caps, and the announcement of the BOJ that it would no longer buy Nikkei 225 ETFs which started a long slide in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> shares against comps and the Nikkei itself. Long "held up" by 'market inventory' and Nikkei 225 ETF buying, when the BOJ stopped, it removed the cushion and existing inventory holders had to sell out. </li>
<li>Then if you look at the shareholder structure of Fast Retailing today, you will see that it is STILL fundamentally a serious problem for large foreign active investors who would actually wish to take an active (but not activist) position. Real World Float on the stock is, by my calculation, less than 15% of shares outstanding. </li>
<li>The relatively recent policy of increased stewardship regarding the passive management portion of the GPIF (the Government Pension Investment Fund) - an investing heavyweight in Japan.</li>
<li>The timing and quantum of after-event support or overhang on corporate actions such as buybacks, secondary offerings, primary offerings, mergers, etc. </li>
<li>Index inclusions mean big flows. If you follow the insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/collections/topix-inclusion/insights?item=54585" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> and myself, you will often see big moves. Sometimes these stocks move 50% between when we write about them and when they go into the index. If you own them and are considering an exit, you need to know when to take profits, and the dynamic of the liquidity. If you are thinking about getting in for fundamental reasons, it pays to know early so you can get ahead of the major flow.</li>
<li>The return of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> to the TSE First Section in Q1 this year changed the foreign shareholder percentage ownership, lowering it by 10%. Smartkarma readers knew this last year and in January, which prepared them for the June AGM when the shareholder category ownership was released.</li>
<li>The changes to the TSE's market structure, which will affect TOPIX membership, which will affect many companies' issuance, buyback, share cancellation, etc decisions over the next several months. They are doing this because of the TSE Prime listing rules which will effectively also determine whether or not they will be included in TOPIX in future, or whether they will fall out of TSE Prime and will see constant selling over late 2022 to early 2025. </li>
</ul>
Of course, TOPIX is just over half of the passive tracking AUM in Japan. There's more. 
Find out WHO OWNS WHAT in Japan Passive below the fold. 
</div>

A few years ago I started this series, and I updated it last year. Since last year, it has been a top 10 insight in terms of views. I personally think it is important for investors of all types to understand WHO OWNS WHAT. Many fundamental investors are reticent to spend any time on this but there are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive investors in Japan.Some of the places active investors will see their influence are:

Stories intermittently published about the BOJ's presence in Japanese ETFs (especially the fact that it owns 85+% of the outstanding ETF market),
Relatively constant interest in Nikkei 225 rebalances like the one we saw in July 2020, which helped push up Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) by 30+% from May to July, then helped it slide 13% in a week, or the changes in the Nikkei 225 review rules published earlier this year which may change what happens this September to a few large caps, and the announcement of the BOJ that it would no longer buy Nikkei 225 ETFs which started a long slide in Fast Retailing (9983 JP) shares against comps and the Nikkei itself. Long "held up" by 'market inventory' and Nikkei 225 ETF buying, when the BOJ stopped, it removed the cushion and existing inventory holders had to sell out. 
Then if you look at the shareholder structure of Fast Retailing today, you will see that it is STILL fundamentally a serious problem for large foreign active investors who would actually wish to take an active (but not activist) position. Real World Float on the stock is, by my calculation, less than 15% of shares outstanding. 
The relatively recent policy of increased stewardship regarding the passive management portion of the GPIF (the Government Pension Investment Fund) - an investing heavyweight in Japan.
The timing and quantum of after-event support or overhang on corporate actions such as buybacks, secondary offerings, primary offerings, mergers, etc. 
Index inclusions mean big flows. If you follow the insights on TOPIX Inclusions by Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA and myself, you will often see big moves. Sometimes these stocks move 50% between when we write about them and when they go into the index. If you own them and are considering an exit, you need to know when to take profits, and the dynamic of the liquidity. If you are thinking about getting in for fundamental reasons, it pays to know early so you can get ahead of the major flow.
The return of Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) to the TSE First Section in Q1 this year changed the foreign shareholder percentage ownership, lowering it by 10%. Smartkarma readers knew this last year and in January, which prepared them for the June AGM when the shareholder category ownership was released.
The changes to the TSE's market structure, which will affect TOPIX membership, which will affect many companies' issuance, buyback, share cancellation, etc decisions over the next several months. They are doing this because of the TSE Prime listing rules which will effectively also determine whether or not they will be included in TOPIX in future, or whether they will fall out of TSE Prime and will see constant selling over late 2022 to early 2025. 

Of course, TOPIX is just over half of the passive tracking AUM in Japan. There's more. 
Find out WHO OWNS WHAT in Japan Passive below the fold. 


The more news that comes out, the worse it seems to get for Didi Global. A coalition of regulators descended on Didi headquarters last Friday as the company’s decision to go public despite Cyberspace Administration (CAC) admonishments it should wait have been taken as a challenge to the government. We expect management saw an opportunity to grab a high valuation with super Q1 numbers which in turn was sweetened by a lucrative options award and that may have made them complacent. We don’t know where regulators will take this but we do feel confident in saying that there are no quick fixes here – too many regulators are involved now and it will likely take months for the company to get out from under this level of scrutiny.

The more news that comes out, the worse it seems to get for Didi Global. A coalition of regulators descended on Didi headquarters last Friday as the company’s decision to go public despite Cyberspace Administration (CAC) admonishments it should wait have been taken as a challenge to the government. We expect management saw an opportunity to grab a high valuation with super Q1 numbers which in turn was sweetened by a lucrative options award and that may have made them complacent. We don’t know where regulators will take this but we do feel confident in saying that there are no quick fixes here – too many regulators are involved now and it will likely take months for the company to get out from under this level of scrutiny.

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Softbank Group - ARM Optionality and Exposure Are on the Rise

NVDA is +61% since it announced the ARM acquisition. That's great for Softbank, which has seen pro rata value soar $11bn. But it also means...

Kirk Boodry

Asia HY Trade Book - July 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Nikola's Ex CEO Trevor Milton Arrested for Lying to Investors. Some Ask, "What About Elon?"

Many of Milton's lies are very different vs tales Tesla CEO Elon Musk has told investors for years. Others seem troublingly similar. With new...

Vicki Bryan

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021?

This is the 2021 Version of Who Owns What in Japan Passive. It tries to present a relatively comprehensive idea of how much money/float tracks the...

Travis Lundy

Didi Global - Greed Is Not Always Good

Regulatory pressure has exploded and there are no quick fixes – too many regulators are involved and it will take months to get out from this. A...

Kirk Boodry

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