Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.</p><ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-315'>Softbank Group</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Softbank Group

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Elliott Management has emerged as a 2%+ shareholder in SoftBank group and is driving for share buybacks of upto USD15bn; we see this as a game changer for minority shareholders</li>
<li>Recent moves to enhance corporate governance in Japan have taken root, yet we see Softbank group as a laggard on corporate governance which been targeted by an experienced activist</li>
<li>Softbank shares trade at a 54% discount to the estimated NAV; an activist like Elliott on board could meaningfully drive shareholder value creation and a narrowing of the NAV discount</li>
</ul>


Elliott Management has emerged as a 2%+ shareholder in SoftBank group and is driving for share buybacks of upto USD15bn; we see this as a game changer for minority shareholders
Recent moves to enhance corporate governance in Japan have taken root, yet we see Softbank group as a laggard on corporate governance which been targeted by an experienced activist
Softbank shares trade at a 54% discount to the estimated NAV; an activist like Elliott on board could meaningfully drive shareholder value creation and a narrowing of the NAV discount


Softbank (9984 JP): This Time, It’s Different

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises <em>and</em> outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

<ul>
<li>Arm’s valuation has driven the group NAV to a new high at fiscal year-end in March; with Arm accounting for 45% of group equity value, NAV downside risk is high</li>
<li>JPY depreciation has been NAV supportive, but this could reverse; SVF2 remains very exposed to financing costs, with 87% of its equity value in private companies</li>
<li>Softbank shares trade at a 57% discount to the estimated NAV; yet the downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with SVF2 valuation headwinds, should keep the discount wide</li>
</ul>


Arm’s valuation has driven the group NAV to a new high at fiscal year-end in March; with Arm accounting for 45% of group equity value, NAV downside risk is high
JPY depreciation has been NAV supportive, but this could reverse; SVF2 remains very exposed to financing costs, with 87% of its equity value in private companies
Softbank shares trade at a 57% discount to the estimated NAV; yet the downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with SVF2 valuation headwinds, should keep the discount wide


Softbank (9984 JP): Has Group NAV Peaked?

Private Capital Markets

Revolut Limited / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Management is targeting a USD40bn IPO valuation for Revolut; the last funding round in 2021 valued it at USD33bn, but current year investor valuations have ranged from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn</li>
<li>We provide key fintech and bank ratios for the UK digital banks; Revolut is more an FX paytech with a small loan book; Starling is a more “balanced” digital bank</li>
<li>Relative to its UK unlisted peers and select listed digital peers, Revolut’s target IPO valuation does appear to be rich; it is also still seeking a UK bank licence</li>
</ul>


Management is targeting a USD40bn IPO valuation for Revolut; the last funding round in 2021 valued it at USD33bn, but current year investor valuations have ranged from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn
We provide key fintech and bank ratios for the UK digital banks; Revolut is more an FX paytech with a small loan book; Starling is a more “balanced” digital bank
Relative to its UK unlisted peers and select listed digital peers, Revolut’s target IPO valuation does appear to be rich; it is also still seeking a UK bank licence


Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

Morning Views Asia: Softbank Group

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Softbank (9984 JP): This Time, It’s Different

We believe that Elliott's push for share buybacks and other strategic reforms at SoftBank should be a game changer for minorities, and this should...

Victor Galliano

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Softbank (9984 JP): Has Group NAV Peaked?

Softbank's NAV has risen to a new peak driven by Arm's market valuation and helped by JPY weakness; yet Arm's super premium valuation poses...

Victor Galliano

Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

Revolut targets a USD40bn IPO valuation, but recent investor valuations range from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn; compared to a broad peer group,...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Morning Views Asia: Softbank Group

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Softbank (9984 JP): This Time, It’s Different

We believe that ​Elliott's push for share buybacks and other strategic reforms at SoftBank should be a game changer for minorities, and this should...

Victor Galliano

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Softbank (9984 JP): Has Group NAV Peaked?

​Softbank's NAV has risen to a new peak driven by Arm's market valuation and helped by JPY weakness; yet Arm's super premium valuation poses...

Victor Galliano

Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

​Revolut targets a USD40bn IPO valuation, but recent investor valuations range from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn; compared to a broad peer group,...

Victor Galliano

We believe that Elliott's push for share buybacks and other strategic reforms at SoftBank should be a game changer for minorities, and this should...

Softbank's NAV has risen to a new peak driven by Arm's market valuation and helped by JPY weakness; yet Arm's super premium valuation poses...

Revolut targets a USD40bn IPO valuation, but recent investor valuations range from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn; compared to a broad peer group,...