Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Since my last insight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tkp-3479-a-working-wework" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35447" rel="noopener">TKP (3479) - A Working Wework?</a> published on the 27th of December 2019, the company's share price has fallen by 78% with the last 24% took place yesterday. TKP's business has been badly hit by the spread of COVID-19 that made its market value halved. But the real juice came when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> threatened to not inject more money into WeWork.
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It is already trading below book value and potentially there will be some buying from BOJ thus it is recommended to cover the short at the current level. 
For short term traders, there is a high chance that the share price could pop from here albeit only for a while as the business fundamental remains weak. 
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Since my last insight on TKP (3479) - A Working Wework? published on the 27th of December 2019, the company's share price has fallen by 78% with the last 24% took place yesterday. TKP's business has been badly hit by the spread of COVID-19 that made its market value halved. But the real juice came when Softbank Group (9984 JP) threatened to not inject more money into WeWork.

It is already trading below book value and potentially there will be some buying from BOJ thus it is recommended to cover the short at the current level. 
For short term traders, there is a high chance that the share price could pop from here albeit only for a while as the business fundamental remains weak. 


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Private Capital Markets

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Rescue cash for Oyo. Oyo has raised US$807m of a US$1.5bn funding round according to ETtech.com and other media sources on March 17th. Funding has come from Oyo's founder (US$300m) and Softbank's Vision Fund (SVF India, US$507m). </li>
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This is a sign of weakness, not strength. While one could see this as a sign that Oyo will perform better, we don't view this as a vote of confidence in the business. Funding is coming from the two most exposed parties backing Oyo and is more of a rescue line for the company. It's also reportedly at a downward valuation based on media reports.</li>
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We recommend avoiding Softbank's deep discount to NAV. Deep discounts can persist or worsen when the market is worried about further NAV declines and also that management is making negative return-on-capital decisions.</li>
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Rescue cash for Oyo. Oyo has raised US$807m of a US$1.5bn funding round according to ETtech.com and other media sources on March 17th. Funding has come from Oyo's founder (US$300m) and Softbank's Vision Fund (SVF India, US$507m). 

This is a sign of weakness, not strength. While one could see this as a sign that Oyo will perform better, we don't view this as a vote of confidence in the business. Funding is coming from the two most exposed parties backing Oyo and is more of a rescue line for the company. It's also reportedly at a downward valuation based on media reports.

We recommend avoiding Softbank's deep discount to NAV. Deep discounts can persist or worsen when the market is worried about further NAV declines and also that management is making negative return-on-capital decisions.


Softbank Vision Fund Adding More Cash into Oyo in Reported Down Round, Avoid Softbank NAV Discount

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Softbank shares have fallen 26% over two days and that is AFTER the company revealed its ¥500bn share buyback.  Softbank now trades at a 67% discount to fair value, down from 47% a mere two weeks ago. That assumes the private assets like non-public Vision Fund and ARM are valued at cost which may be too aggressive but even if one assumes zero value, the discount is still in unchartered territory at 53%. We have been concerned about Vision Fund/private equity, skeptical on WeWork, and cautious on Softbank in a risk-off environment but the shares look oversold now.

Softbank shares have fallen 26% over two days and that is AFTER the company revealed its ¥500bn share buyback.  Softbank now trades at a 67% discount to fair value, down from 47% a mere two weeks ago. That assumes the private assets like non-public Vision Fund and ARM are valued at cost which may be too aggressive but even if one assumes zero value, the discount is still in unchartered territory at 53%. We have been concerned about Vision Fund/private equity, skeptical on WeWork, and cautious on Softbank in a risk-off environment but the shares look oversold now. 

Softbank Group: With Discount Approaching 70% This Appears Oversold

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6827'>Abm Investama</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-13022'>Anton Oilfield</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-2556'>Chandra Asri Petrochemical</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-27445'>Softbank Corp</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Abm InvestamaAnton OilfieldChandra Asri PetrochemicalSoftbank Corp

Morning Views Asia: Abm Investama, Anton Oilfield, Chandra Asri Petrochemical, Softbank Corp

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With COVID-19 and stimulus packages being in the news day in and day out, here are my two cents on what policy makers need to do to get over this relatively quickly and with as little pain to the common man as possible. Whether its possible to do so or not is a different story.

With COVID-19 and stimulus packages being in the news day in and day out, here are my two cents on what policy makers need to do to get over this relatively quickly and with as little pain to the common man as possible. Whether its possible to do so or not is a different story. 

The Month the World Stood Still - A Novice Small Business Guide to Avoiding a Long Recession

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

TKP (3479): After 78% Down - What to Do?

Since my last insight on TKP (3479) - A Working Wework? published on the 27th of December 2019, the company's share price has fallen by 78% with...

Henry Soediarko

Softbank Vision Fund Adding More Cash into Oyo in Reported Down Round, Avoid Softbank NAV Discount

Rescue cash for Oyo. Oyo has raised US$807m of a US$1.5bn funding round according to ETtech.com and other media sources on March 17th. Funding...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Softbank Group: With Discount Approaching 70% This Appears Oversold

Softbank shares have fallen 26% over two days and that is AFTER the company revealed its ¥500bn share buyback. Softbank now trades at a 67%...

Kirk Boodry

Morning Views Asia: Abm Investama, Anton Oilfield, Chandra Asri Petrochemical, Softbank Corp

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

The Month the World Stood Still - A Novice Small Business Guide to Avoiding a Long Recession

With COVID-19 and stimulus packages being in the news day in and day out, here are my two cents on what policy makers need to do to get over this...

Sumeet Singh

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