Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Shots fired! Moody's two-step downgrade of Softbank Group debt to Ba3 on concerns it was selling high value stakes to shore up risky private equity debt led to a 9% decline in the share price and an angry response from Softbank. It came the same week that Softbank announced a massive restructuring program highlighting market concerns that the balance sheet side of Softbank's proposal may not be as aggressive as hoped. On Monday, Softbank said that it would allocate ¥2.5 trillion for debt reduction but that includes an increase in cash balances, which presumably could be used for programs like Vision Fund 2 down the road. Moody's downgrade as well as other feedback from credit analysts indicates markets need further reassurance before narrowing the valuation gap further.

Shots fired! Moody's two-step downgrade of Softbank Group debt to Ba3 on concerns it was selling high value stakes to shore up risky private equity debt led to a 9% decline in the share price and an angry response from Softbank. It came the same week that Softbank announced a massive restructuring program highlighting market concerns that the balance sheet side of Softbank's proposal may not be as aggressive as hoped. On Monday, Softbank said that it would allocate ¥2.5 trillion for debt reduction but that includes an increase in cash balances, which presumably could be used for programs like Vision Fund 2 down the road. Moody's downgrade as well as other feedback from credit analysts indicates markets need further reassurance before narrowing the valuation gap further. 

Softbank Group: Moody's Downgrade Highlights Investor Scrutiny of Balance Sheet Relief

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

Since the start of 2019 till date, we have covered 96 IPOs. Despite the market turmoil over the past two months, over a third, or 40 IPOs remain above their listing price. 
In this insight, we'll take a quick look at the universe overall and how some of the IPOs in Hong Kong have been fairing.

Since the start of 2019 till date, we have covered 96 IPOs. Despite the market turmoil over the past two months, over a third, or 40 IPOs remain above their listing price. 
In this insight, we'll take a quick look at the universe overall and how some of the IPOs in Hong Kong have been fairing. 

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If Alibaba believes that its stock is under-priced, it is highly likely that the company would be interested in buying-back a larger portion of the stake sale.</li>
<li>Moreover, if Softbank also believes that Alibaba is under-priced, it's likely that they would consider selling Alibaba's shares through a forward contract, as they did four years ago. </li>
</ul>


If Alibaba believes that its stock is under-priced, it is highly likely that the company would be interested in buying-back a larger portion of the stake sale.
Moreover, if Softbank also believes that Alibaba is under-priced, it's likely that they would consider selling Alibaba's shares through a forward contract, as they did four years ago. 


Softbank’s Stake Sale Will Be a Good Litmus Test of Alibaba’s Valuation

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-35'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-26799'>Future Retail</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8717'>Geo Energy Resources</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8898'>Sino Ocean Land</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-315'>Softbank Group</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Jinmao HoldingsFuture RetailGeo Energy ResourcesSino Ocean LandSoftbank Group

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Future Retail, Geo Energy Resources, Sino Ocean Land

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moody-s-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15729:1" rel="noopener">Moody's Corp (MCO US)</a> topped Standard &amp; Poor's with an even more severe downgrade of bonds in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>.This is is even worse news for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/we-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28061:1" rel="noopener">The We Company (WeWork) (WE US)</a> sputtering bonds, which are down another 15 points since my report on Monday to37.8 (34.7% ytw; 3421 bps) and down 51 points since my report on March 18th.

Moody's Corp (MCO US) topped Standard &amp; Poor's with an even more severe downgrade of bonds in Softbank Group (9984 JP).This is is even worse news for The We Company (WeWork) (WE US) sputtering bonds, which are down another 15 points since my report on Monday to37.8 (34.7% ytw; 3421 bps) and down 51 points since my report on March 18th.

Breaking: Softbank Bonds Gets Severe Downgrade; WeWork Bonds Suffer

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

Softbank Group: Moody's Downgrade Highlights Investor Scrutiny of Balance Sheet Relief

Shots fired! Moody's two-step downgrade of Softbank Group debt to Ba3 on concerns it was selling high value stakes to shore up risky private equity...

Kirk Boodry

Trade/Investment Ideas from 2019/20 IPOs

Since the start of 2019 till date, we have covered 96 IPOs. Despite the market turmoil over the past two months, over a third, or 40 IPOs remain...

Sumeet Singh

Softbank’s Stake Sale Will Be a Good Litmus Test of Alibaba’s Valuation

If Alibaba believes that its stock is under-priced, it is highly likely that the company would be interested in buying-back a larger portion of...

Supun Walpola

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Future Retail, Geo Energy Resources, Sino Ocean Land

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Breaking: Softbank Bonds Gets Severe Downgrade; WeWork Bonds Suffer

Moody's Corp (MCO US) topped Standard & Poor's with an even more severe downgrade of bonds in Softbank Group (9984 JP).This is is even worse...

Vicki Bryan

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