TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Impressive Analyst Day Presentation got us bulled up on the potential for Afterpay to juice growth on both Square and the Cash App</li>
<li>Cash App getting a design overhaul to create a super app that spans commerce, investing, payments, personal finance, loans, etc. </li>
<li>Unit economics outlined today lead us to a ~40% potential EBITDA margin in 3-5 years...well higher than is currently considered by consensus today. </li>
</ul>


Impressive Analyst Day Presentation got us bulled up on the potential for Afterpay to juice growth on both Square and the Cash App
Cash App getting a design overhaul to create a super app that spans commerce, investing, payments, personal finance, loans, etc. 
Unit economics outlined today lead us to a ~40% potential EBITDA margin in 3-5 years...well higher than is currently considered by consensus today. 


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>We see limited upside potential for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upstart-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29727:1" rel="noopener">Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)</a>  shares after reporting a record 200%+ YoY revenue growth rate in CY’21.   </li>
<li>Our calculations suggest insiders sold ~$1.5 billion worth of Upstart shares since August 2020, including Third Point, CEO of Upstart Holdings, and management of the fintech company. </li>
<li>Rising interest rates and tightening of credit markets may negatively impact revenue, keeping in mind that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upstart-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29727:1" rel="noopener">Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)</a>  primarily facilitates unsecured personal loans on the platform.</li>
</ul>


We see limited upside potential for Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)  shares after reporting a record 200%+ YoY revenue growth rate in CY’21.   
Our calculations suggest insiders sold ~$1.5 billion worth of Upstart shares since August 2020, including Third Point, CEO of Upstart Holdings, and management of the fintech company. 
Rising interest rates and tightening of credit markets may negatively impact revenue, keeping in mind that Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)  primarily facilitates unsecured personal loans on the platform.


Upstart Holdings: Slowdown In Revenue Growth And Tightening Of Credit Markets

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upstart-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29727:1" rel="noopener">Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)</a> is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. </li>
<li>Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. </li>
<li>While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. </li>
</ul>



Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US) is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. 
Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. 
While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. 


Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

Independent Research, SPACs, SPAC Track

SPAC Track

Independent Research, SPACs

Equity Capital Markets

Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp. (DWIN) &amp; FOXO Technologies (Valuation: $369M EV)</li><li>Brilliant Acquisition Corp (BRLI) &amp; Nukkleus (Valuation: $140M pre-money EV)</li><li>Nasdaq is taking steps to remove SoftBank-backed View (VIEW) from its exchange after the glassmaker failed to meet another deadline to file missing financials</li></ul>

Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp. (DWIN) &amp; FOXO Technologies (Valuation: $369M EV)Brilliant Acquisition Corp (BRLI) &amp; Nukkleus (Valuation: $140M pre-money EV)Nasdaq is taking steps to remove SoftBank-backed View (VIEW) from its exchange after the glassmaker failed to meet another deadline to file missing financials

<ul><li>Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) &amp; ProKidney</li><li>Vishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender Better, [merging with Aurora Acquisition Corp. (AURC)] is staying on as CEO</li><li>Shares of SoFi rallied as more than 16% in after-hours trading on Tuesday following news that the fintech cleared its final regulatory hurdle in becoming a bank.</li></ul>

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) &amp; ProKidneyVishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender Better, [merging with Aurora Acquisition Corp. (AURC)] is staying on as CEOShares of SoFi rallied as more than 16% in after-hours trading on Tuesday following news that the fintech cleared its final regulatory hurdle in becoming a bank.

United States

Credit Acceptance Corporation provides funding, receivables management, collection, sales training, and related services to automobile dealers.  The Company provides indirect financing for buyers with limited access to traditional sources of consumer credit.  Credit Acceptance operates in the United States.

OneMain Holdings Inc. provides consumer financial services. The Company provides responsible loan products to customers through its branch network and through its centralized operations. OneMain Holdings operates in the United States.

SLM Corporation, commonly known as Sallie Mae, provides education funding, originating and servicing of U.S. government guaranteed and private student loans.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides debt management services and business and technical products to a range of clients including colleges, universities and loan guarantors.

Nelnet, Inc. is a consumer finance company that provides products and services to participants in the education finance process.  The Company originates, holds, and services education loans and offers a broad range of financial services and technology-based products, including student loan origination and lending, student loan, and guarantee services.

FirstCash Holdings, Inc. owns and operates pawn stores. The Company focuses on serving cash and credit constrained consumers through its retail pawn locations. FirstCash Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Ally Financial Inc. is a automotive financial services company powered by a direct banking franchise. The Company operates as a financial holding company.

Bread Financial Holdings Inc. operates as a tech-forward financial services company. The Company offers personalized payment, lending, and saving solutions. Bread Financial Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Enova International, Inc. offers online financial services to people who have bank accounts but have limited access to traditional consumer credit from banks, thrifts, credit card companies and other lenders. The Company offers short-term consumer and installment consumer loans in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada.

Navient Corporation's focus is in education loan portfolio management, servicing and asset recovery. The Company acts as a servicer for Department of Education and FFELP loans as well as private student loans.

Encore Capital Group, Inc. is involved in consumer debt buying and recovery. The company purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables from banks, credit unions, and utility providers and partners with individuals as they repay their obligations and work toward financial recovery.

Muthoot Finance Ltd. is a gold financing company. The Company provides personal and business loans secured by gold jewellery, or Gold Loans primarily to individuals who possess gold jewelry but can't access formal credit lines.

SBI Cards and Payment Services Private Limited provides credit card services. The Company offers payment products and services in the form of corporate and credit cards with incentive and rewards programs. SBI Cards and Payment Services serves customers in India.

SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN)

Sundaram Finance Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in India. The Company offers savings products, car and commercial vehicle finance, insurance products, home loans and logistics services. Sundaram is based in Chennai, India.

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited is a finance company that provides finance to prospective buyers of Mahindra range of utility vehicles and tractors.  The Company extends finance through hire purchase/loan and lease modes.  Mahindra & Mahindra has a network of branches located across India.

Mahindra & Mahindra Fin Services Ltd. (MMFS IN)

ACOM CO., LTD is a consumer financing company.  The Company provides financial services such as secured/unsecured loans and consumer installment credits.

Shriram Finance Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers automobile, commercial vehicle, business, and gold loan services. Shriram Finance serves customers in India.

Samsung Card Co., Ltd. offers credit card services such as issuing cards, one time payments, installments, and cash advance services. The Company also provides other financial services such as leasing and loan services.

Credit Saison Co., Ltd. is a consumer credit company.  The Company provides financial services such as credit cards, consumer installment credits, loan guarantees, loans, consignment operations, and leases.

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited operates as a commercial lending company. The Company provides car title, personal, agricultural vehicle, land title, and other loan products. Muangthai Capital serves customers in Thailand.

Taiwan Acceptance Corp. provides car financing and leasing services.

SoFi Technologies, Inc. is an online personal finance company and online bank. The Company provides financial products including student and auto loan refinancing, mortgages, personal loans, credit card, investing, and banking through both mobile app and desktop interfaces. SoFi Technologies serves customers in the United States.

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SoFi Technologies (SOFI US)

Revisiting Long Ideas: Square (Block)

Square had a strong 1Q22 and a bullish analyst day presentation yesterday that reignited our enthusiasm for this ecosystem of ecosystems. Afterpay...

Aaron Gabin

Upstart Holdings: Slowdown In Revenue Growth And Tightening Of Credit Markets

We think investors should be cautious on Upstart shares due to the slowdown in revenue growth rates and the tightening of credit markets

Andrei Zakharov

The SPAC Week in Review

Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp. (DWIN) & FOXO Technologies (Valuation: $369M EV). Brilliant Acquisition Corp (BRLI) & Nukkleus (Valuation:...

SPAC Track

The Nightcap from SPAC Track

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) & ProKidney. Vishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender...

SPAC Track

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Revisiting Long Ideas: Square (Block)

Square had a strong 1Q22 and a bullish analyst day presentation yesterday that reignited our enthusiasm for this ecosystem of ecosystems. Afterpay...

Aaron Gabin

Upstart Holdings: Slowdown In Revenue Growth And Tightening Of Credit Markets

We think investors should be cautious on Upstart shares due to the slowdown in revenue growth rates and the tightening of credit markets

Andrei Zakharov

Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The tech sell-off is an...

Arun George

The SPAC Week in Review

Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp. (DWIN) & FOXO Technologies (Valuation: $369M EV). Brilliant Acquisition Corp (BRLI) & Nukkleus (Valuation:...

SPAC Track

The Nightcap from SPAC Track

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) & ProKidney. Vishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender...

SPAC Track