TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth ex-SPAC decelerated to 19% this quarter, 11% below consensus.</li>
<li>1Q22 20% operating margins vs. consensus 27% margins as the company invests to reaccelerate growth in 2H from rising government contracts due to war.</li>
<li>Alex Karp warns that nuclear war in Ukraine is being dramatically underestimated.</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth ex-SPAC decelerated to 19% this quarter, 11% below consensus.
1Q22 20% operating margins vs. consensus 27% margins as the company invests to reaccelerate growth in 2H from rising government contracts due to war.
Alex Karp warns that nuclear war in Ukraine is being dramatically underestimated.


Palantir 1Q22 Earnings: War Supposedly Good for Business?

<ul>
<li>Snowflake dropped another monster quarterly result, with product revenues growing 102%, with rising margins and FCF generation.</li>
<li>The 30% after hours drop was insane due to a misunderstanding of revenue guidance.</li>
<li>An incredible entry point for those who wanted to buy Snowflake but were waiting for it to return to the low $200s</li>
</ul>


Snowflake dropped another monster quarterly result, with product revenues growing 102%, with rising margins and FCF generation.
The 30% after hours drop was insane due to a misunderstanding of revenue guidance.
An incredible entry point for those who wanted to buy Snowflake but were waiting for it to return to the low $200s


Snowflake 4Q22 Earnings: What a Buying Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Palantir's ongoing SPAC investment strategy is driving an increasing bifurcation between reported and underlying results... which continues to be ignored by sell side and retail investors. </li>
<li>Revenue growth missed ex-SPAC, while Billings Growth collapsed 31% YoY ex-SPAC investments...unheard of for a software company.</li>
<li>Margin guidance for 1Q22 well below consensus as sales headcount continues to ramp. Stay short.</li>
</ul>


Palantir's ongoing SPAC investment strategy is driving an increasing bifurcation between reported and underlying results... which continues to be ignored by sell side and retail investors. 
Revenue growth missed ex-SPAC, while Billings Growth collapsed 31% YoY ex-SPAC investments...unheard of for a software company.
Margin guidance for 1Q22 well below consensus as sales headcount continues to ramp. Stay short.


Palantir 4Q21 Earnings: Declining Bookings, Shrinking Margins, Eccentric CEO

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With half of Nasdaq stocks down 50% from the top, is further meltdown ahead?  Valuation compression is already larger than recent big growth selloffs.  </li>
<li>We like a balance of highest quality high growth (CRWD, SNOW, RBLX) and attractive relative valuations (PANW, NOW, BABA)</li>
<li>Amazon is poised for a big 2022 as 1 day Prime shipping reaccelerates growth, and price increases hike profits.</li>
</ul>


With half of Nasdaq stocks down 50% from the top, is further meltdown ahead?  Valuation compression is already larger than recent big growth selloffs.  
We like a balance of highest quality high growth (CRWD, SNOW, RBLX) and attractive relative valuations (PANW, NOW, BABA)
Amazon is poised for a big 2022 as 1 day Prime shipping reaccelerates growth, and price increases hike profits.


<p>We continue to be baffled by Palantir. Rampant obfuscation in conference call answers, investor presentations, and the 10Q. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower.</p><p>We remain short.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We continue to be baffled by Palantir. Rampant obfuscation in conference call answers, investor presentations, and the 10Q. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower.We remain short.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Snowflake Inc. provides software solutions. The Company develops database architecture, data warehouses, query optimization, and parallelization solutions. Snowflake serves customers worldwide.

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Snowflake (SNOW US)

Palantir 1Q22 Earnings: War Supposedly Good for Business?

Decelerating growth continues and margins continue to decline. But war is good for Palantir (supposedly), and growth should reaccelerate in 2H22...

Aaron Gabin

Snowflake 4Q22 Earnings: What a Buying Opportunity

Snowflake dropped another monster quarterly result, with product revenues growing 102% but was cut afterhours by 30% over revenue guidance....

Aaron Gabin

Palantir 4Q21 Earnings: Declining Bookings, Shrinking Margins, Eccentric CEO

Palantir remains one of our top short ideas. SPAC investments continue to account for any upside vs. consensus expectations, while billings growth...

Aaron Gabin

1H22 Obex Research Long Portfolio

With the big rate driven selloff in growth stocks, we highlight our top long ideas including ON Semi, Palo Alto Networks, Alibaba, Amazon, and...

Aaron Gabin

Palantir 3Q21 Earnings: We Buy Growth

We continue to be baffled by Palantir. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower. We...

Aaron Gabin

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