TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Palantir's ongoing SPAC investment strategy is driving an increasing bifurcation between reported and underlying results... which continues to be ignored by sell side and retail investors. </li>
<li>Revenue growth missed ex-SPAC, while Billings Growth collapsed 31% YoY ex-SPAC investments...unheard of for a software company.</li>
<li>Margin guidance for 1Q22 well below consensus as sales headcount continues to ramp. Stay short.</li>
</ul>


Palantir's ongoing SPAC investment strategy is driving an increasing bifurcation between reported and underlying results... which continues to be ignored by sell side and retail investors. 
Revenue growth missed ex-SPAC, while Billings Growth collapsed 31% YoY ex-SPAC investments...unheard of for a software company.
Margin guidance for 1Q22 well below consensus as sales headcount continues to ramp. Stay short.


Palantir 4Q21 Earnings: Declining Bookings, Shrinking Margins, Eccentric CEO

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With half of Nasdaq stocks down 50% from the top, is further meltdown ahead?  Valuation compression is already larger than recent big growth selloffs.  </li>
<li>We like a balance of highest quality high growth (CRWD, SNOW, RBLX) and attractive relative valuations (PANW, NOW, BABA)</li>
<li>Amazon is poised for a big 2022 as 1 day Prime shipping reaccelerates growth, and price increases hike profits.</li>
</ul>


With half of Nasdaq stocks down 50% from the top, is further meltdown ahead?  Valuation compression is already larger than recent big growth selloffs.  
We like a balance of highest quality high growth (CRWD, SNOW, RBLX) and attractive relative valuations (PANW, NOW, BABA)
Amazon is poised for a big 2022 as 1 day Prime shipping reaccelerates growth, and price increases hike profits.


<p>We continue to be baffled by Palantir. Rampant obfuscation in conference call answers, investor presentations, and the 10Q. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower.</p><p>We remain short.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We continue to be baffled by Palantir. Rampant obfuscation in conference call answers, investor presentations, and the 10Q. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower.We remain short.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/braze-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34773:1" rel="noopener">Braze Inc (BRZE US)</a> , the leading customer engagement platform and cloud-based SaaS unicorn, filed for a $100 million placeholder IPO with Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Barclays leading the offering. The company applied to list Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker “BRZE”. Braze will have two classes of common stock: Class A shares and Class B shares, the so-called dual class structure of common stock. The company’s high profile customer list includes Delivery Hero, Grubhub, Burger King, DraftKings, IBM, Deliveroo, Intuit, and PayPal, among others. We have favorable view of the technology and Braze is well positioned to change how mobile marketing platforms approach customer engagement.</p>

Braze Inc (BRZE US) , the leading customer engagement platform and cloud-based SaaS unicorn, filed for a $100 million placeholder IPO with Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Barclays leading the offering. The company applied to list Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker “BRZE”. Braze will have two classes of common stock: Class A shares and Class B shares, the so-called dual class structure of common stock. The company’s high profile customer list includes Delivery Hero, Grubhub, Burger King, DraftKings, IBM, Deliveroo, Intuit, and PayPal, among others. We have favorable view of the technology and Braze is well positioned to change how mobile marketing platforms approach customer engagement.

Braze IPO Preview: A World-Class Mobile Marketing Platform

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Snowflake has been one of the hottest tech stocks for the past few months.</li><li>The company continued its momentum in the second quarter with 103% year-on-year growth to $255 million in product revenues, reflecting strength in the company's consumption.</li><li>In the second quarter, customer product and financial services revenue grew over 100% year-on-year, representing the most considerable contribution, while healthcare customer product revenue increased around 200% wich was truly fantastic.</li></ul>

Snowflake has been one of the hottest tech stocks for the past few months.The company continued its momentum in the second quarter with 103% year-on-year growth to $255 million in product revenues, reflecting strength in the company's consumption.In the second quarter, customer product and financial services revenue grew over 100% year-on-year, representing the most considerable contribution, while healthcare customer product revenue increased around 200% wich was truly fantastic.

Snowflake Inc. - Invt Thesis, Financial & Price Forecasts, DCF Valuation- 10/21

United States

Snowflake Inc. provides software solutions. The Company develops database architecture, data warehouses, query optimization, and parallelization solutions. Snowflake serves customers worldwide.

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Snowflake (SNOW US)

Palantir 4Q21 Earnings: Declining Bookings, Shrinking Margins, Eccentric CEO

Palantir remains one of our top short ideas. SPAC investments continue to account for any upside vs. consensus expectations, while billings growth...

Aaron Gabin

1H22 Obex Research Long Portfolio

With the big rate driven selloff in growth stocks, we highlight our top long ideas including ON Semi, Palo Alto Networks, Alibaba, Amazon, and...

Aaron Gabin

Palantir 3Q21 Earnings: We Buy Growth

We continue to be baffled by Palantir. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower. We...

Aaron Gabin

Braze IPO Preview: A World-Class Mobile Marketing Platform

Mobile marketing technology unicorn Braze filed its S-1 with the SEC to go public as revenue growth accelerated and ARR surpassed $200M

Andrei Zakharov

Snowflake Inc. - Invt Thesis, Financial & Price Forecasts, DCF Valuation- 10/21

Snowflake has been one of the hottest tech stocks for the past few months. The company continued its momentum in the second quarter with 103%...

Baptista Research

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