TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Snowflake guided below consensus for 4Q2023 revenue growth on a mix of macro conservatism and a quirky point that more vacation travel will reduce the amount of workloads run.</li>
<li>Margins continue to beat to the upside and management is guiding FY2024 FCF marginst to 23%, just 2pts below the LT guidance.</li>
<li>Very conservative management team also guided for a stabilization in revenue growth for FY2024 at 47%, a bit below consensus, but better than feared given the earnings reports recently.</li>
</ul>


Snowflake guided below consensus for 4Q2023 revenue growth on a mix of macro conservatism and a quirky point that more vacation travel will reduce the amount of workloads run.
Margins continue to beat to the upside and management is guiding FY2024 FCF marginst to 23%, just 2pts below the LT guidance.
Very conservative management team also guided for a stabilization in revenue growth for FY2024 at 47%, a bit below consensus, but better than feared given the earnings reports recently.


Snowflake FY3Q23 Earnings: Stabilizing Growth in FY2024

Stock Picking & Investing, BluSuit

BluSuit

Stock Picking & Investing

Financial markets, high growth & innovative business coverage, macro economics, trading strategy and market insight

<ul><li>Listening to sentiment alone would lead investors to believe we are 50% down on the S&amp;P 500 and we have another 50% to go.</li><li>But, this simply is not true. When benchmarking the markets recent price action by sector, this bear market, on a technical basis, has the hall marks of every market bottom since 2000.</li><li>Recollecting Howard Marks book, “Mastering the Market Cycle”, there was a particular part that was of importance.</li></ul>

Listening to sentiment alone would lead investors to believe we are 50% down on the S&amp;P 500 and we have another 50% to go.But, this simply is not true. When benchmarking the markets recent price action by sector, this bear market, on a technical basis, has the hall marks of every market bottom since 2000.Recollecting Howard Marks book, “Mastering the Market Cycle”, there was a particular part that was of importance.

<ul>
<li>Crowdstrike continues to gobble up share, printing another strong beat and raise, with ARR now at $2B, the second fastest software company to hit that mark.</li>
<li>EBIT margins up 800bps YoY, TTM FCF Margins 30%...profitable growth at Scale.</li>
<li>13x forward P/S for a unique software asset with long runways for 40%+ growth and multi-module driven margin expansion with a 15% pullback in the past week despite earnings.</li>
</ul>


Crowdstrike continues to gobble up share, printing another strong beat and raise, with ARR now at $2B, the second fastest software company to hit that mark.
EBIT margins up 800bps YoY, TTM FCF Margins 30%...profitable growth at Scale.
13x forward P/S for a unique software asset with long runways for 40%+ growth and multi-module driven margin expansion with a 15% pullback in the past week despite earnings.


Crowdstrike FY2Q23: FY2Q23: Not Just Endpoint, Identity and SIEM Accelerating Too

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul>
<li>Widespread workload enablement has been a key driver responsible for Snowflake to deliver an excellent result.</li>
<li>Snowflake managed to deliver an all-around beat with financial services seeing the largest product revenue growth sequentially while all its other verticals also expanded well.</li>
<li>The company is also on track to acquire Applica to enable customers to leverage unstructured data more easily in the Snowflake Data Cloud.</li>
</ul>


Widespread workload enablement has been a key driver responsible for Snowflake to deliver an excellent result.
Snowflake managed to deliver an all-around beat with financial services seeing the largest product revenue growth sequentially while all its other verticals also expanded well.
The company is also on track to acquire Applica to enable customers to leverage unstructured data more easily in the Snowflake Data Cloud.


Snowflake Inc: Support For Unstructured Data & The Applica Acquisition

<ul><li>In my opinion, DLocal is an expensive stock. Typically when you see very expensive businesses not outperform on every metric, or at least a majority of them, you see their stock price struggle.</li><li>On a valuation perspective, DLocal finds itself priced in line with the most expensive stocks on the stock market.</li><li>The thing that makes DLocal unique is its profitability compared to many of the other software stocks as they run 35%+ EBITDA margins on a consistent basis.</li></ul>

In my opinion, DLocal is an expensive stock. Typically when you see very expensive businesses not outperform on every metric, or at least a majority of them, you see their stock price struggle.On a valuation perspective, DLocal finds itself priced in line with the most expensive stocks on the stock market.The thing that makes DLocal unique is its profitability compared to many of the other software stocks as they run 35%+ EBITDA margins on a consistent basis.

United States

Snowflake Inc. provides software solutions. The Company develops database architecture, data warehouses, query optimization, and parallelization solutions. Snowflake serves customers worldwide.

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Snowflake (SNOW US)

Snowflake FY3Q23 Earnings: Stabilizing Growth in FY2024

Snowflake produced another impressive quarter and a guidance that was better than feared given the macro concerns other high growth SW companies...

Aaron Gabin

We are Not Crashing, It's Just Volatile

When benchmarking the markets recent price action by sector, this bear market, on a technical basis, has the hall marks of every market bottom...

BluSuit

Crowdstrike FY2Q23: FY2Q23: Not Just Endpoint, Identity and SIEM Accelerating Too

Crowdstrike’s stock has pulled back in the past week or so by 15%, despite another superb quarter. 13x forward forward P/S sounds reasonable given...

Aaron Gabin

Snowflake Inc: Support For Unstructured Data & The Applica Acquisition

Widespread workload enablement has been a key driver responsible for Snowflake to deliver an excellent result. Snowflake managed to deliver an...

Baptista Research

Earnings in Review: DLocal and Snowflake

The thing that makes DLocal unique is its profitability compared to many of the other software stocks as they run 35%+ EBITDA margins on a...

BluSuit

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