Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 July.</li>
<li>There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.</li>
<li>We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).</li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) will be added to the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 July.
There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.
We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).


TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1" rel="noopener">Goldwin Inc (8111 JP)</a> has risen to hold a leading share in outdoor wear retailing on the back of the success of The North Face.</li>
<li>It has developed considerable retail and marketing skills in the process and is now applying these to its own brand with hopes of going global.</li>
<li>Demand for new forms of sports and outdoor brand remain strong in Japan and globally and Goldwin's mix of technical fabrics and quality could give it an edge.</li>
</ul>



Goldwin Inc (8111 JP) has risen to hold a leading share in outdoor wear retailing on the back of the success of The North Face.
It has developed considerable retail and marketing skills in the process and is now applying these to its own brand with hopes of going global.
Demand for new forms of sports and outdoor brand remain strong in Japan and globally and Goldwin's mix of technical fabrics and quality could give it an edge.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The latest Census in Japan confirms the ongoing fall in total population across most of the country but reveals surprising growth markets in small pockets, particularly around Greater Tokyo which now accounts for just under 30% of the total population.There are also ever growing numbers of single people, expanding the promising solo market. In the bigger cities, younger people bring new types of consumption but the increase in older singles is a growing problem.The following provides background macro trends for any investor looking at the Japan consumer space and some stocks we think will benefit from these macro trends.

The latest Census in Japan confirms the ongoing fall in total population across most of the country but reveals surprising growth markets in small pockets, particularly around Greater Tokyo which now accounts for just under 30% of the total population.There are also ever growing numbers of single people, expanding the promising solo market. In the bigger cities, younger people bring new types of consumption but the increase in older singles is a growing problem.The following provides background macro trends for any investor looking at the Japan consumer space and some stocks we think will benefit from these macro trends.

Shrinking, Ageing Japan but a Growing Solo Market

The camping and outdoor boom continues and, while many brands and retailers are benefiting across both mass and premium markets, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> has achieved almost cult status.Snow Peak is targeting sales of ¥29 billion in the year to December 2023, a CAGR of 20% versus 2020 and operating profit of ¥4 billion (CAGR of 38.9%).

The camping and outdoor boom continues and, while many brands and retailers are benefiting across both mass and premium markets, Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) has achieved almost cult status.Snow Peak is targeting sales of ¥29 billion in the year to December 2023, a CAGR of 20% versus 2020 and operating profit of ¥4 billion (CAGR of 38.9%). 

Like most lifestyle segments, the outdoor apparel &amp; equipment market contracted in 2020 but this is a blip in an otherwise sustained multi-year expansion. Long-term growth is being driven by both expanded supply and demand as consumers of all ages embrace the great outdoors for the first time in generations and suppliers rush to equip them.This has benefited retailers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workman-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1" rel="noopener">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1" rel="noopener">Goldwin Inc (8111 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> but it also means that a number of other retailers have entered the market, creating new competition, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bic-camera-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11328:1" rel="noopener">Bic Camera Inc (3048 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kohnan-shoji-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5662:1" rel="noopener">Kohnan Shoji (7516 JP).</a>

Like most lifestyle segments, the outdoor apparel &amp; equipment market contracted in 2020 but this is a blip in an otherwise sustained multi-year expansion. Long-term growth is being driven by both expanded supply and demand as consumers of all ages embrace the great outdoors for the first time in generations and suppliers rush to equip them.This has benefited retailers such as Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP), Goldwin Inc (8111 JP) and Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) but it also means that a number of other retailers have entered the market, creating new competition, including Bic Camera Inc (3048 JP) and Kohnan Shoji (7516 JP).

Japan's Outdoor Market Expands 3.2% in 2019 but Contraction in 2020

Japan

Snow Peak Inc. designs, manufactures, and retails camping equipment and outdoor lifestyle goods.

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Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)

TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Mercari will be added to the TPX at the close on 28 July. There are a lot of FFW changes that will result in one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a...

Brian Freitas

Goldwin Expecting Record Sales

Goldwin is a Japanese sports/outdoor success story but much of this success has relied on a foreign brand, The North Face. Goldwin now wants to...

Michael Causton

Shrinking, Ageing Japan but a Growing Solo Market

Japan's population is contracting but there are areas of growth, particularly the solo market (single people living alone) and the senior market....

Michael Causton

Snow Peak's Sales Surge on Camping Boom

Snow Peak is one of Japan's best lifestyle brands, benefitting from the nascent and still evolving outdoor and camping boom going on in Japan. We...

Michael Causton

Japan's Outdoor Market Expands 3.2% in 2019 but Contraction in 2020

Japan's outdoor market is one of few segments to see solid growth in recent years and while the market will dip in 2020, will grow well in the next...

Michael Causton

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