Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 4 days left to review cutoff, there is 1 close add and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.6% and a round-trip trade of A$243m.</li>
<li>The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till Friday and whether the index provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.</li>
</ul>


With 4 days left to review cutoff, there is 1 close add and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the December rebalance.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.6% and a round-trip trade of A$243m.
The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till Friday and whether the index provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: 1 Close Add & 3 Deletions

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of April, 6 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was 23%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of April, 6 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was 23%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2023: Arcland Service, Lian Beng, Silk Laser, Breaker Resources, Blackmores

<ul>
<li>In a dealbreak, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">ANZ (ANZ AU)</a> will either have enough capital in a downturn or excess capital it could use to buy back stock. If behavioural remedies, SunCorp is cheaper. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004.</li>
<li>There is no good reason to be long Adani names, even if GQG is up 25% on his money so far.</li>
</ul>


In a dealbreak, ANZ (ANZ AU) will either have enough capital in a downturn or excess capital it could use to buy back stock. If behavioural remedies, SunCorp is cheaper. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004.
There is no good reason to be long Adani names, even if GQG is up 25% on his money so far.


Last Week in Event SPACE: ANZ/​Suncorp, JCNC, Adani, Khan Bank/HS Holdings, Hong Kong Buybacks

<ul>
<li>There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/breaker-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19210:1" rel="noopener">Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)</a> all-scrip Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU) all-scrip Offer from Ramelius Resources (RMS AU).
Key updates took place for Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), and Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Mincor, Toyo Construction, Pushpay, Breaker Resources

<ul>
<li>There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle (ALB US)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> tilt; Malteries Soufflet's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt (UMG AU)</a> Offer; Bain Capital's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia (EHE AU)</a> Offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Albemarle (ALB US)'s Liontown Resources (LTR AU) tilt; Malteries Soufflet's United Malt (UMG AU) Offer; Bain Capital's Estia (EHE AU) Offer. 
Key updates took place for Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), andGolden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

Australia

Slater & Gordon Limited is a national law firm. The Firm's areas of practice include commercial, family, employment, asbestos-related and personal injury law.

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Slater & Gordon (SGH AU)

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: 1 Close Add & 3 Deletions

There could be 1 add and 3 deletes in Dec. Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.6% and a...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2023: Arcland Service, Lian Beng, Silk Laser, Breaker Resources, Blackmores

For the month of April, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$3bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: ANZ/Suncorp, JCNC, Adani, Khan Bank/HS Holdings, Hong Kong Buybacks

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Mincor, Toyo Construction, Pushpay, Breaker Resources

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: 1 Close Add & 3 Deletions

There could be 1 add and 3 deletes in Dec. Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.6% and a...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2023: Arcland Service, Lian Beng, Silk Laser, Breaker Resources, Blackmores

For the month of April, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$3bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: ANZ/​Suncorp, JCNC, Adani, Khan Bank/HS Holdings, Hong Kong Buybacks

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Mincor, Toyo Construction, Pushpay, Breaker Resources

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: ANZ/Suncorp, JCNC, Adani, Khan Bank/HS Holdings, Hong Kong Buybacks