TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been blown away by the surge in its stock and multiple...it went from 15x forward sales to 25x last quarter and stands at 35x forward sales today. <span>A lack of disclosure around Coupa Pay progress and a potentially "conservative" 3Q21 billings guidance says to us its time to move to the sidelines on Coupa and await a better re-entry point</span>. </p><p></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been blown away by the surge in its stock and multiple...it went from 15x forward sales to 25x last quarter and stands at 35x forward sales today. A lack of disclosure around Coupa Pay progress and a potentially "conservative" 3Q21 billings guidance says to us its time to move to the sidelines on Coupa and await a better re-entry point. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Slack Technologies Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>If all other work from home beneficiaries used by SMBs continue to see explosive growth <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoom-video-communications-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28029:1" rel="noopener">Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/docusign-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27060:1" rel="noopener">DocuSign Inc (DOCU US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crowdstrike-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28117:1" rel="noopener">Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US)</a> , but you see sharp deceleration, you may have a competition issue.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

If all other work from home beneficiaries used by SMBs continue to see explosive growth Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM US) , DocuSign Inc (DOCU US) , Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US) , but you see sharp deceleration, you may have a competition issue.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Slack 2Q21 Earnings Recap: Too Much Slack in Billings

<div><p>This week we highlight the coming video game price hike, Slack's new acquisition strategy, Walmart's attempt to counter Amazon Prime, and a quick revisit on the Twitter subscription saga.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

This week we highlight the coming video game price hike, Slack's new acquisition strategy, Walmart's attempt to counter Amazon Prime, and a quick revisit on the Twitter subscription saga.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 7/​10/​​​​​2020

<div><p>This week we highlight Shopify's compelling aggregation strategy, along with some thoughts on Instacart, Walmart, Oracle, and Slack. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

This week we highlight Shopify's compelling aggregation strategy, along with some thoughts on Instacart, Walmart, Oracle, and Slack. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/​​​19/​​​2020

<p>We wrote about Coupa in early April as being an excellent buying opportunity on a LT compounder which will likely not offer many good entry points. We wish we had bought more then. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We wrote about Coupa in early April as being an excellent buying opportunity on a LT compounder which will likely not offer many good entry points. We wish we had bought more then. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Slack Technologies, Inc. operates as a software company. The Company designs and develops communication platform that provide real-time messaging, archiving, and searching services for teams. Slack Technologies serves clients worldwide.

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Slack Technologies Inc (WORK US)

Coupa 2Q21: P/S Multiples Are Coup-Ed Up

We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in...

Aaron Gabin

Slack 2Q21 Earnings Recap: Too Much Slack in Billings

If all other work

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 7/10/2020

This week we highlight the coming video game price hike, Slack's new acquisition strategy, Walmart's attempt to counter Amazon Prime, and a quick...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/19/2020

This week we highlight Shopify's compelling aggregation strategy, along with some thoughts on Instacart, Walmart, Oracle, and Slack. Obex’s...

Aaron Gabin

Coupa 1Q21: Barely a Blip

We wrote about Coupa in early April as being an excellent buying opportunity on a LT compounder which will likely not offer many good entry points....

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Coupa 2Q21: P/S Multiples Are Coup-Ed Up

We have been pitching Coupa as a long since the March bottom, and have been Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in...

Aaron Gabin

Slack 2Q21 Earnings Recap: Too Much Slack in Billings

If all other work

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 7/​10/​​​​​2020

This week we highlight the coming video game price hike, Slack's new acquisition strategy, Walmart's attempt to counter Amazon Prime, and a quick...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/​​​19/​​​2020

This week we highlight Shopify's compelling aggregation strategy, along with some thoughts on Instacart, Walmart, Oracle, and Slack. Obex’s...

Aaron Gabin

Coupa 1Q21: Barely a Blip

We wrote about Coupa in early April as being an excellent buying opportunity on a LT compounder which will likely not offer many good entry points....

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 7/10/2020

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/19/2020