Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The removal of COVID-19 testing requirements for Chinese tourists is expected to increase tourist arrivals from the Greater China region.</li>
<li>In addition, consensus estimates for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skylark-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:474:1" rel="noopener">Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP)</a> are increasing due to the company's faster-than-expected same-store sales recovery.</li>
<li>Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn and guidance of ¥6.0bn.</li>
</ul>


The removal of COVID-19 testing requirements for Chinese tourists is expected to increase tourist arrivals from the Greater China region.
In addition, consensus estimates for Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP) are increasing due to the company's faster-than-expected same-store sales recovery.
Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn and guidance of ¥6.0bn.


Skylark Holdings: A Big Upgrade to Guidance Could Be on The Horizon

Research from Mita Securities, Mita Securities

Mita Securities

Research from Mita Securities

Mita Securities provides a full scale diversified investment banking and financial services. A comprehensive investment banking department, specializes in rights offerings advisory, take-over bids agents, M&A etc. Including a proprietary trading desk, and wealth management department that offers brokerage, custody, real estate, and full proxy services.

<ul><li>With the recovery of foot traffic, the company stepped up its promotional activities since late May, which had a positive effect on the guest count in June</li><li>In June, the company opened no new store. The number of stores at the end of June was 3,085 (-5 MoM)</li><li>According to the June 26 Nikkei, Skylark Holdings plans to 1) raise menu prices at its mainstay " Gusto" restaurants at the end of July, and 2) abolish uniform pricing nationwide and limit price hikes for some products at suburban restaurants</li></ul>

With the recovery of foot traffic, the company stepped up its promotional activities since late May, which had a positive effect on the guest count in JuneIn June, the company opened no new store. The number of stores at the end of June was 3,085 (-5 MoM)According to the June 26 Nikkei, Skylark Holdings plans to 1) raise menu prices at its mainstay " Gusto" restaurants at the end of July, and 2) abolish uniform pricing nationwide and limit price hikes for some products at suburban restaurants

Skylark Holdings (3197): Solid Guest Count Recovery Due to Promotions

<ul><li>Same-store sales have been improving gradually on the back of the recovery of foot traffic, but still below the company’s target</li><li>As the company has stores throughout Japan, there appears to be a mix of areas where the recovery has been progressing and areas where the recovery has been sluggish</li><li><p>Since May 26, the company has been running aggressive promotions. We will watch closely to see if sales will recover in June.</p></li></ul>

Same-store sales have been improving gradually on the back of the recovery of foot traffic, but still below the company’s targetAs the company has stores throughout Japan, there appears to be a mix of areas where the recovery has been progressing and areas where the recovery has been sluggishSince May 26, the company has been running aggressive promotions. We will watch closely to see if sales will recover in June.

Skylark Holdings (3197): Improving Gradually, but Still Below Target

<ul><li>On May 13, Skylark HD (3197, the company) announced 1Q FY12/22 sales of 67.1bn yen (+3.6% YoY; -10.5% QoQ), OP of -0.2bn yen (vs. -1.3bn yen loss in 1Q FY12/21; 10.8bn yen in 4Q)</li><li>1Q same-store sales increased 2.5% from FY12/21 and down 29.2% (our estimate) from FY12/19. The SSS was lower than the company’s 1Q SSS guidance (down 26% from FY12/19)</li><li>The number of stores at the end of 1Q was 3,098 stores (flat QoQ). The company opened 6 stores and closed 6 stores.</li></ul>

On May 13, Skylark HD (3197, the company) announced 1Q FY12/22 sales of 67.1bn yen (+3.6% YoY; -10.5% QoQ), OP of -0.2bn yen (vs. -1.3bn yen loss in 1Q FY12/21; 10.8bn yen in 4Q)1Q same-store sales increased 2.5% from FY12/21 and down 29.2% (our estimate) from FY12/19. The SSS was lower than the company’s 1Q SSS guidance (down 26% from FY12/19)The number of stores at the end of 1Q was 3,098 stores (flat QoQ). The company opened 6 stores and closed 6 stores.

Skylark Holdings (3197): 1Q OP in Line with Target

Japan

Skylark Co. Ltd. mainly operates a family restaurant chain across Japan.  The Company offers Japanese-style, Western-style, and Asia-style foods for a wide variety of targeted customer segments.  Skylark also sells food and provides delivery servies.

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Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Skylark Holdings: A Big Upgrade to Guidance Could Be on The Horizon

Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Skylark Holdings (3197): Solid Guest Count Recovery Due to Promotions

With the recovery of foot traffic, the company stepped up its promotional activities since late May, which had a positive effect on the guest count...

Mita Securities

Skylark Holdings (3197): Improving Gradually, but Still Below Target

Same-store sales have been improving gradually on the back of the recovery of foot traffic, but still below the company’s target

Mita Securities

Skylark Holdings (3197): 1Q OP in Line with Target

On May 13, Skylark HD (3197, the company) announced 1Q FY12/22 sales of 67.1bn yen (+3.6% YoY; -10.5% QoQ), OP of -0.2bn yen (vs. -1.3bn yen loss...

Mita Securities

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Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Skylark Holdings: A Big Upgrade to Guidance Could Be on The Horizon

Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Skylark Holdings (3197): Solid Guest Count Recovery Due to Promotions

With the recovery of foot traffic, the company stepped up its promotional activities since late May, which had a positive effect on the guest count...

Mita Securities

Skylark Holdings (3197): Improving Gradually, but Still Below Target

Same-store sales have been improving gradually on the back of the recovery of foot traffic, but still below the company’s target

Mita Securities

Skylark Holdings (3197): 1Q OP in Line with Target

On May 13, Skylark HD (3197, the company) announced 1Q FY12/22 sales of 67.1bn yen (+3.6% YoY; -10.5% QoQ), OP of -0.2bn yen (vs. -1.3bn yen loss...

Mita Securities

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...