Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.</li>
</ul>


We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.


Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 24 July, 3D Investment Partners proposed to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tohokushinsha-film-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15129:1" rel="noopener">Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP)</a> through a tender at JPY600-650. 3D has extended the offer validity period from 23 to 30 August.  </li>
<li>The controlling shareholder, Mr Hisako, claims he is not a seller regardless of price. The Board goes through the motions, knowing that Mr Hisako will decide the offer's fate. </li>
<li>3D’s persistence suggests that Mr Hisako's resolve might be checked by bumping the offer. As this outcome is likely, the shares will continue to trade through terms.  </li>
</ul>


On 24 July, 3D Investment Partners proposed to privatise Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP) through a tender at JPY600-650. 3D has extended the offer validity period from 23 to 30 August.  
The controlling shareholder, Mr Hisako, claims he is not a seller regardless of price. The Board goes through the motions, knowing that Mr Hisako will decide the offer's fate. 
3D’s persistence suggests that Mr Hisako's resolve might be checked by bumping the offer. As this outcome is likely, the shares will continue to trade through terms.  


Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP): 3D Persists Despite Strong Pushback

<ul>
<li>On 24 July, 3D Investment Partners proposed to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tohokushinsha-film-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15129:1" rel="noopener">Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP)</a> through a tender offer at JPY600-650 per share. A special committee will evaluate the proposal. </li>
<li>3D’s privatisation plan, in its current terms, is a non-starter as the price is low, and its activism campaign has so far been met with the Board’s scepticism.</li>
<li>The possible scenarios are that a white knight emerges to buy 3D’s stake/launch a counteroffer, 3D bumps the offer price, or the Board introduces a more ambitious MTM plan.</li>
</ul>


On 24 July, 3D Investment Partners proposed to privatise Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP) through a tender offer at JPY600-650 per share. A special committee will evaluate the proposal. 
3D’s privatisation plan, in its current terms, is a non-starter as the price is low, and its activism campaign has so far been met with the Board’s scepticism.
The possible scenarios are that a white knight emerges to buy 3D’s stake/launch a counteroffer, 3D bumps the offer price, or the Board introduces a more ambitious MTM plan.


Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP): Potential Scenarios as 3D Lobs a Privatisation Proposal

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As expected space segment revenue growth accelerated as global/mobile sales took off offsetting media revenue erosion</li>
<li>User trends in the video business remain weak although Q3 subscriber losses improved QoQ despite this being the seasonally weakest quarter</li>
<li>We are leaving our forecasts unchanged and remain at Buy</li>
</ul>


As expected space segment revenue growth accelerated as global/mobile sales took off offsetting media revenue erosion
User trends in the video business remain weak although Q3 subscriber losses improved QoQ despite this being the seasonally weakest quarter
We are leaving our forecasts unchanged and remain at Buy


Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) - Q3 22 Results Reaction: Satellite Growth Offsets Media Weakness

<ul>
<li>We are publishing updated forecasts and commentary for Sky Perfect after meeting the company post-results </li>
<li>Media results were predictably weak but the company hopes to make up ground in H2 as it ramps up marketing spend to support sport packages that launch in Spring</li>
<li>Amazon's reveal that it has tested LEO-based satellite software highlights cloud platform interest in space ICT infrastructure like that being pursued by Sky Perfect JSAT and NTT</li>
</ul>


We are publishing updated forecasts and commentary for Sky Perfect after meeting the company post-results 
Media results were predictably weak but the company hopes to make up ground in H2 as it ramps up marketing spend to support sport packages that launch in Spring
Amazon's reveal that it has tested LEO-based satellite software highlights cloud platform interest in space ICT infrastructure like that being pursued by Sky Perfect JSAT and NTT


Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) - Q2 Follow up Plus Amazon Proof of Concept for Space Compass

Japan

SKY Perfect JSAT Holdings, Inc. is a holding company, which manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. As a group, the Company provides broadcasting and data transmission services via satellites. SKY Perfect JSAT delivers digital TV programs including movies, music, sports and entertainment to its subscribers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP): 3D Persists Despite Strong Pushback

3D’s persistence suggests a strategy to test the controlling shareholder's resolve by bumping the offer. As this outcome is likely, the shares will...

Arun George

Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP): Potential Scenarios as 3D Lobs a Privatisation Proposal

The possible scenarios are that a white knight emerges to buy 3D’s stake/launch a counteroffer, 3D bumps the offer price, or the Board introduces a...

Arun George

Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) - Q3 22 Results Reaction: Satellite Growth Offsets Media Weakness

Space segment revenue growth accelerated, providing some offset for media weakness and keeping the company on track to meet full-year guidance

Kirk Boodry

Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) - Q2 Follow up Plus Amazon Proof of Concept for Space Compass

Media results have been predictably weak but key tailwinds for Space segment growth remain. Meanwhile, Amazon appears interested in space...

Kirk Boodry

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)