Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Every year (usually in the beginning of September), the Nikkei Inc Index team conducts an annual review of the major price-weighted Nikkei indices - the most important being the Nikkei 225 Average - and adds and subtracts constituents according to the Rules.
Today, they announced the 2021 version of the changes (<a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>, <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PAF changes</a>).
Below is Some Background. If you want to skip ahead to the juicy analysis, you can jump ahead to the Changes Announced section just below, and then more below the fold.
<h3>Some Background</h3>
The Nikkei 225, well-known globally as "the Nikkei" is a price-weighted index, originally started nearly 70 years ago as an average of a selected number of stocks listed on the TSE First Section. Later, it became 225 members. 
Because it is price-weighted, and because for a long time it made no divisor adjustments for stock splits (so when a stock split 2:1 its weight fell by half because price fell by half and trackers had to sell half their shares in that stock), and the price multiplier was determined by the par value of a company, then they later they started adjusting for splits, stocks which are old, never split, AND have a high price end up having a high weight in the index. 
There was a huge reshuffle in April 2000 when the Nikkei decided that the system needed rebalancing to include more tech, so they changed the Rules. They pushed 30 names out and 30 names in, and the 30 names added were 50% of the new index. 
Twenty one years after the prior change in methodology, this past May 10 the Nikkei Inc Index Team announced new changes to the Rules. There was a <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, with an <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FAQ</a>, and <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supplemental data</a>. On 5 July, the Nikkei confirmed the proposal with a new <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210705E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Guidebook</a>.
When I wrote about this on 10 May in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/after-20yrs-nikkei-225-proposes-minor-impact-rule-changes-nintendo-disappointment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51277" rel="noopener">After 20yrs, Nikkei 225 Proposes Minor Impact Rule Changes (Nintendo Disappointment?)</a> I said I thought the changes disappointing. There are real problems with the index and this did not do much; the changes are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, with the only interesting change being that constituents are added with a weight no greater than 1%. If the normal price adjustment factor would allow a constituent to enter at a weight greater than 1%, the Price Adjustment Factor (base 1) is lowered in increments of 0.1 so that the deemed inclusion weight on Base Date (end of July) is no more than 1%. There is no change to the idea that the Nikkei Index Team can override their rankings at any time as they see fit.
Because the Nikkei Index Team had let the sector balances and rankings slide quite a bit over the years (not adding "obvious" names and not deleting names which should probably have been deleted, and not rebalancing the sectors as the rules say they should), the possibility was that some names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and similar high-price-low-share-count names which "deserved" to be included were not simply because their very high price would create undue impact (it was undue impact and the lack of incremental float for high-weight low-share-count names which caused the BOJ to lower, then eventually cease their buying of Nikkei 225 ETFs). This rule on capping inclusions at 1% would go a ways to mitigating that problem so that would allow the Nikkei to add previously un-addable names. Expectations were high on a group of names, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence Corp (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>, and probably <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, with the latter two likely to create some real froth if actually selected. 
<h2>The Changes Announced</h2>
Today after the close, the Nikkei Index Team announced the following changes to the Nikkei 225 Average as a result of the Annual Review:
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The changes will be made on the last trading day of September, at the close. I expect to see $10bn trade on that day.
The new rules allow the Nikkei Index team to not do a lot to the sector mix if the additions are made because of "High Liquidity" because while the sector mix would normally mean more than three deleted, the new rules cap changes at 3 per annual rebalance (which is not enough).
As noted above, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> were among names which were expected as possible inclusions and therefore a certain amount of pre-positioning may be in place. They may get somewhat hurt tomorrow.
<div class="content-highlight">
There are a LOT of moving parts here. There are 3 ADDs, 3 DELETIONS, 1 Price Adjustment Factor moved sharply higher and one moved somewhat lower (a list of all the PAFs announced by the Nikkei is <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), then there are another 220 stocks which will see selling on 30 September at the rebalance. 
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For more detailed analysis of the stocks, their positioning, how much to buy, etc, please read on.
<hr>
For more about passive tracking in Japan, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-passive-who-owns-what-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55008" rel="noopener">JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021?</a>

Every year (usually in the beginning of September), the Nikkei Inc Index team conducts an annual review of the major price-weighted Nikkei indices - the most important being the Nikkei 225 Average - and adds and subtracts constituents according to the Rules.
Today, they announced the 2021 version of the changes (announcement, PAF changes).
Below is Some Background. If you want to skip ahead to the juicy analysis, you can jump ahead to the Changes Announced section just below, and then more below the fold.
Some Background
The Nikkei 225, well-known globally as "the Nikkei" is a price-weighted index, originally started nearly 70 years ago as an average of a selected number of stocks listed on the TSE First Section. Later, it became 225 members. 
Because it is price-weighted, and because for a long time it made no divisor adjustments for stock splits (so when a stock split 2:1 its weight fell by half because price fell by half and trackers had to sell half their shares in that stock), and the price multiplier was determined by the par value of a company, then they later they started adjusting for splits, stocks which are old, never split, AND have a high price end up having a high weight in the index. 
There was a huge reshuffle in April 2000 when the Nikkei decided that the system needed rebalancing to include more tech, so they changed the Rules. They pushed 30 names out and 30 names in, and the 30 names added were 50% of the new index. 
Twenty one years after the prior change in methodology, this past May 10 the Nikkei Inc Index Team announced new changes to the Rules. There was a proposal, with an FAQ, and supplemental data. On 5 July, the Nikkei confirmed the proposal with a new Guidebook.
When I wrote about this on 10 May in After 20yrs, Nikkei 225 Proposes Minor Impact Rule Changes (Nintendo Disappointment?) I said I thought the changes disappointing. There are real problems with the index and this did not do much; the changes are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, with the only interesting change being that constituents are added with a weight no greater than 1%. If the normal price adjustment factor would allow a constituent to enter at a weight greater than 1%, the Price Adjustment Factor (base 1) is lowered in increments of 0.1 so that the deemed inclusion weight on Base Date (end of July) is no more than 1%. There is no change to the idea that the Nikkei Index Team can override their rankings at any time as they see fit.
Because the Nikkei Index Team had let the sector balances and rankings slide quite a bit over the years (not adding "obvious" names and not deleting names which should probably have been deleted, and not rebalancing the sectors as the rules say they should), the possibility was that some names like Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and similar high-price-low-share-count names which "deserved" to be included were not simply because their very high price would create undue impact (it was undue impact and the lack of incremental float for high-weight low-share-count names which caused the BOJ to lower, then eventually cease their buying of Nikkei 225 ETFs). This rule on capping inclusions at 1% would go a ways to mitigating that problem so that would allow the Nikkei to add previously un-addable names. Expectations were high on a group of names, with Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP), Keyence Corp (6861 JP), ZOZO Inc (3092 JP), and probably Oriental Land (4661 JP), with the latter two likely to create some real froth if actually selected. 
The Changes Announced
Today after the close, the Nikkei Index Team announced the following changes to the Nikkei 225 Average as a result of the Annual Review:







The changes will be made on the last trading day of September, at the close. I expect to see $10bn trade on that day.
The new rules allow the Nikkei Index team to not do a lot to the sector mix if the additions are made because of "High Liquidity" because while the sector mix would normally mean more than three deleted, the new rules cap changes at 3 per annual rebalance (which is not enough).
As noted above, ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) and Oriental Land (4661 JP) were among names which were expected as possible inclusions and therefore a certain amount of pre-positioning may be in place. They may get somewhat hurt tomorrow.

There are a LOT of moving parts here. There are 3 ADDs, 3 DELETIONS, 1 Price Adjustment Factor moved sharply higher and one moved somewhat lower (a list of all the PAFs announced by the Nikkei is here), then there are another 220 stocks which will see selling on 30 September at the rebalance. 

For more detailed analysis of the stocks, their positioning, how much to buy, etc, please read on.

For more about passive tracking in Japan, please refer to JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021? 

2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L / Event-Driven

Nikkei has just announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of its periodic review. The changes will be made prior to the open of the market on 1 October, so passive funds will trade at the closing auction on 30 September.There are 3 changes to the index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence Corp (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshinbo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10561:1" rel="noopener">Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-seikan-group-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11858:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sky-perfect-jsat-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14097:1" rel="noopener">Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)</a>.While the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and the deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sky-perfect-jsat-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14097:1" rel="noopener">Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)</a> was expected, the other names are relative surprises.The impact on the inclusions is not very high in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of the real float to buy, but the impact on the deletions is a lot higher. The selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshinbo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10561:1" rel="noopener">Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-seikan-group-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11858:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)</a> will result in around 18% of the free float of the stock being sold and the stocks could drop a lot before investors start to get involved.This is the first review post the market consultation that was announced in May and the conclusions of which were published in July.As usual, Nikkei have ignored the sector balance that is spoken about so much in the index methodology. Apparently its easier to write the index methodology than to follow it!

Nikkei has just announced the changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of its periodic review. The changes will be made prior to the open of the market on 1 October, so passive funds will trade at the closing auction on 30 September.There are 3 changes to the index with Keyence Corp (6861 JP), Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) and Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) replacing Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP), Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) and Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP).While the inclusion of Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and the deletion of Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP) was expected, the other names are relative surprises.The impact on the inclusions is not very high in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of the real float to buy, but the impact on the deletions is a lot higher. The selling on Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP) and Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) will result in around 18% of the free float of the stock being sold and the stocks could drop a lot before investors start to get involved.This is the first review post the market consultation that was announced in May and the conclusions of which were published in July.As usual, Nikkei have ignored the sector balance that is spoken about so much in the index methodology. Apparently its easier to write the index methodology than to follow it!

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Nintendo, Keyence, Murata IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, SKY Perfect OUT

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Q1 21 financial and operating results were mixed with pre-announced accounting changes driving a 16% YoY decline in revenue although operating profit (-2%) and EBITDA (-3%) came in better than consensus and Redex forecasts. The announcement of a share buyback program, the first since FY15 and only fourth for the company overall, is moderately accretive (2% of market cap) and adds a positive narrative to what looked to be a rebuilding year. This was a good quarter – we remain at Buy.

Q1 21 financial and operating results were mixed with pre-announced accounting changes driving a 16% YoY decline in revenue although operating profit (-2%) and EBITDA (-3%) came in better than consensus and Redex forecasts. The announcement of a share buyback program, the first since FY15 and only fourth for the company overall, is moderately accretive (2% of market cap) and adds a positive narrative to what looked to be a rebuilding year. This was a good quarter – we remain at Buy.

Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy)-Q1 21 Results Reaction: Mixed Operationally but Surprise Share Buyback Helps

In May, the Nikkei released a market consultation on proposed changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> covering capping the weight of new constituents in the index at 1% by using a Price Adjustment Factor, limiting the number of index changes at a periodic review to 3, and changing the index universe from stocks listed on TSE's 1st section to stocks that are listed on the Prime Market (post the reorganisation). Most of the proposed changes were subsequently approved.This is the first <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rebalance after the market consultation that tweaked things around. The tweaks could ensure the inclusion of stocks that were historically not included in the index due to their high stock price, though the impact will be much smaller since their weight in the index will not exceed 1%.At the upcoming rebalance, we see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> being included in the index while there is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> being included.Potential deletion candidates are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sky-perfect-jsat-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14097:1" rel="noopener">Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruha-nichiro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20640:1" rel="noopener">Maruha Nichiro (1333 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3439:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Metals (5541 JP)</a>.There will be quite a large impact from passive trading on a few names.The changes will be announced early September and will be implemented at the close of trading on 30 September.

In May, the Nikkei released a market consultation on proposed changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) covering capping the weight of new constituents in the index at 1% by using a Price Adjustment Factor, limiting the number of index changes at a periodic review to 3, and changing the index universe from stocks listed on TSE's 1st section to stocks that are listed on the Prime Market (post the reorganisation). Most of the proposed changes were subsequently approved.This is the first Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rebalance after the market consultation that tweaked things around. The tweaks could ensure the inclusion of stocks that were historically not included in the index due to their high stock price, though the impact will be much smaller since their weight in the index will not exceed 1%.At the upcoming rebalance, we see a high probability of Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) being included in the index while there is a lower probability of Oriental Land (4661 JP) and Orix Corp (8591 JP) being included.Potential deletion candidates are Toho Zinc (5707 JP), Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP), Maruha Nichiro (1333 JP) and Pacific Metals (5541 JP).There will be quite a large impact from passive trading on a few names.The changes will be announced early September and will be implemented at the close of trading on 30 September.

Nikkei225 Index Rebalance Preview: Perennial Favourites Could Be In

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sky-perfect-jsat-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14097:1" rel="noopener">Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)</a> reported video subscriptions of 3.1mn for Q1, down modestly v Q4 (-11K) but better than our expectations of a 20K loss. We have updated our forecasts for this and Q4 guidance including a change in J-GAAP accounting that has lowered headline revenue. Shares have drifted since Q4 results were announced in late April as concerns on the viability of the media business linger but we believe the long-term potential of the satellite operations is a more powerful story and can drive upside over time. Our ¥640 FY21-end target price and Buy rating remain unchanged.

Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP) reported video subscriptions of 3.1mn for Q1, down modestly v Q4 (-11K) but better than our expectations of a 20K loss. We have updated our forecasts for this and Q4 guidance including a change in J-GAAP accounting that has lowered headline revenue. Shares have drifted since Q4 results were announced in late April as concerns on the viability of the media business linger but we believe the long-term potential of the satellite operations is a more powerful story and can drive upside over time. Our ¥640 FY21-end target price and Buy rating remain unchanged.

Sky Perfect JSAT - Media Subscriptions Steady; Updating Forecasts for Guidance

Japan

SKY Perfect JSAT Holdings, Inc. is a holding company, which manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. As a group, the Company provides broadcasting and data transmission services via satellites. SKY Perfect JSAT delivers digital TV programs including movies, music, sports and entertainment to its subscribers.

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Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)

2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT

The Nikkei 225 Rebalance is here. A small surprise in the ADDs. No surprises on the DELETEs. A couple of housekeeping changes, and 600 baskets to...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Nintendo, Keyence, Murata IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, SKY Perfect OUT

Nintendo, Murata & Keyence are into the Nikkei225 while Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan & Sky Perfect are out. This trade will be more about the deletes...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei225 Index Rebalance Preview: Perennial Favourites Could Be In

Nintendo could be included in the NKY at the upcoming rebalance though the impact will not be very large. The new methodology could also result in...

Brian Freitas

Sky Perfect JSAT - Media Subscriptions Steady; Updating Forecasts for Guidance

We have updated our forecasts after the report of Q1 video subscribers and also to adjust for guidance announced at Q4 results. We remain at Buy...

Kirk Boodry

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2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT

The Nikkei 225 Rebalance is here. A small surprise in the ADDs. No surprises on the DELETEs. A couple of housekeeping changes, and 600 baskets to...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Nintendo, Keyence, Murata IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, SKY Perfect OUT

Nintendo, Murata & Keyence are into the Nikkei225 while Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan & Sky Perfect are out. This trade will be more about the deletes...

Brian Freitas

Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy)-Q1 21 Results Reaction: Mixed Operationally but Surprise Share Buyback Helps

Operationally, media was slightly better and satellite slightly worse than we expected but the company is on track for full-year targets. A...

Kirk Boodry

Nikkei225 Index Rebalance Preview: Perennial Favourites Could Be In

Nintendo could be included in the NKY at the upcoming rebalance though the impact will not be very large. The new methodology could also result in...

Brian Freitas

Sky Perfect JSAT - Media Subscriptions Steady; Updating Forecasts for Guidance

We have updated our forecasts after the report of Q1 video subscribers and also to adjust for guidance announced at Q4 results. We remain at Buy...

Kirk Boodry