Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.</li><li>So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.</li><li>I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.</li></ul>

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;</li>
<li>ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;</li>
<li>Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.


BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector</li>
<li>Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months</li>
<li>Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle</li>
</ul>


There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector
Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months
Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Micron's earnings results will be released September 27th. We expect the company to describe a trough for memory pricing happening now and provide a positive outlook for rising prices.</li>
<li>Micron and Nanya Tech have outperformed SK Hynix recently. Our 'reversion catch up' trade has worked. Going forward we believe Micron looks compelling on a relative basis.</li>
<li>SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the next advanced version.</li>
</ul>


Micron's earnings results will be released September 27th. We expect the company to describe a trough for memory pricing happening now and provide a positive outlook for rising prices.
Micron and Nanya Tech have outperformed SK Hynix recently. Our 'reversion catch up' trade has worked. Going forward we believe Micron looks compelling on a relative basis.
SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the next advanced version.


Micron's Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Micron's Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

​The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Micron's Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...