Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023.</li>
<li>Of the 33 pair trades, 2/3 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past year and 1/3 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
<li>We highlight 33 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023.
Of the 33 pair trades, 2/3 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past year and 1/3 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
We highlight 33 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities in 1Q 2023

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ends on 31 January, the changes will be announced towards end February and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.</li>
<li>We forecast one add/delete for the Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical (003670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>; the largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW (032500 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ends on 31 January, the changes will be announced towards end February and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.
We forecast one add/delete for the Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.
The largest inflows are expected on Posco Chemical (003670 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS); the largest outflows are expected on SK Innovation (096770 KS) and KMW (032500 KS).


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Some Big Impact Names

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the five most aggressive corporate activist firms that have been moving the Korean equity market in the past year.</li>
<li>They include Align Partners Capital Management, KCGI, Flashlight Capital Partners, Truston, and LIFE Asset Management.</li>
<li>Share prices of 15 companies that the corporate activist firms have invested in Korea are up on average 9.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is up 7.1% in the same period.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the five most aggressive corporate activist firms that have been moving the Korean equity market in the past year.
They include Align Partners Capital Management, KCGI, Flashlight Capital Partners, Truston, and LIFE Asset Management.
Share prices of 15 companies that the corporate activist firms have invested in Korea are up on average 9.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is up 7.1% in the same period.


Five Most Aggressive Corporate Activists Moving the Korean Market: Align, KCGI, FCP, Truston, & LIFE

<ul>
<li>In early December, the divorce settlement between SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-Won and his former wife Roh So-Young was finalized after 6+ years of long proceedings.</li>
<li>The end of the divorce settlement means that there is now a greater probability of SK Inc materially cancelling some of its treasury shares in 2023. </li>
<li>Our SoTP valuation of SK Inc suggests an implied valuation of 260,712 won per share, suggesting 28.1% upside from current levels.</li>
</ul>


In early December, the divorce settlement between SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-Won and his former wife Roh So-Young was finalized after 6+ years of long proceedings.
The end of the divorce settlement means that there is now a greater probability of SK Inc materially cancelling some of its treasury shares in 2023. 
Our SoTP valuation of SK Inc suggests an implied valuation of 260,712 won per share, suggesting 28.1% upside from current levels.


SK Inc: Chairman Chey's Divorce Settlement Finalized + SoTP Valuation Analysis

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

SK Biopharmaceuticals   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-biopharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28966:1" rel="noopener">SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS)</a> is reporting continued stellar performance of its flagship drug cenobamate in US, with Q2 sales rising 114% y/y and 27% q/q to KRW40.3 billion.</li>
<li>Thus far, cenobamate has been launched in the U.S. and EU. The company is looking to launch the drug in Korea, China, and Japan in 2025.</li>
<li>Going forward, the company is expected to narrow its losses, and should turn profitable in 2024. The company is expected to launch new drug, carisbamate in global market in 2025.</li>
</ul>



SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS) is reporting continued stellar performance of its flagship drug cenobamate in US, with Q2 sales rising 114% y/y and 27% q/q to KRW40.3 billion.
Thus far, cenobamate has been launched in the U.S. and EU. The company is looking to launch the drug in Korea, China, and Japan in 2025.
Going forward, the company is expected to narrow its losses, and should turn profitable in 2024. The company is expected to launch new drug, carisbamate in global market in 2025.


SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Strong Xcopri US Sales Not Reflected in Share Price Performance

South Korea

SK Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holdings company that is engaged in various industries including energy, chemicals, information technology, semiconductors, marketing, and services businesses in South Korea and internationally.

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SK Inc (034730 KS)

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities in 1Q 2023

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023. We highlight 33 pair trades that...

Douglas Kim

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Some Big Impact Names

There are some high impact changes expected at the March rebalance of the New Deal indices mainly from changes to the top 3 stocks in the Battery...

Brian Freitas

Five Most Aggressive Corporate Activists Moving the Korean Market: Align, KCGI, FCP, Truston, & LIFE

In this insight, we discuss the five most aggressive corporate activist firms that have been moving the Korean equity market in the past year.

Douglas Kim

SK Inc: Chairman Chey's Divorce Settlement Finalized + SoTP Valuation Analysis

In early December, the divorce settlement between SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-Won and his former wife Roh So-Young was finalized after 6+ years of...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities in 1Q 2023

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023. We highlight 33 pair trades that...

Douglas Kim

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Some Big Impact Names

There are some high impact changes expected at the March rebalance of the New Deal indices mainly from changes to the top 3 stocks in the Battery...

Brian Freitas

Five Most Aggressive Corporate Activists Moving the Korean Market: Align, KCGI, FCP, Truston, & LIFE

In this insight, we discuss the five most aggressive corporate activist firms that have been moving the Korean equity market in the past year.

Douglas Kim

SK Inc: Chairman Chey's Divorce Settlement Finalized + SoTP Valuation Analysis

In early December, the divorce settlement between SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-Won and his former wife Roh So-Young was finalized after 6+ years of...

Douglas Kim

SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Strong Xcopri US Sales Not Reflected in Share Price Performance

Flagship drug Xcopri is on high gear in US, thanks to strong efficacy and aggressive promotion. SK Biopharmaceuticals targets Xcopri sales of...

Tina Banerjee