HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The oil majors - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-petroleum-chemical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:369:1" rel="noopener">China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a> - are interesting plays on government's plan to boost capital market valuations.</li>
<li>Higher dividend payout, privatisation of undervalued subsidiaries, return to A-shares, share buyback and upping stake by major shareholders are just some example of supporting tactics.</li>
<li>The government may possibly mobilise more offshore funds of SOEs to add stakes. We think ROE expansion and capital market valuations to gain importance in senior management KPIs.</li>
</ul>


The oil majors - CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK) and PetroChina (857 HK) - are interesting plays on government's plan to boost capital market valuations.
Higher dividend payout, privatisation of undervalued subsidiaries, return to A-shares, share buyback and upping stake by major shareholders are just some example of supporting tactics.
The government may possibly mobilise more offshore funds of SOEs to add stakes. We think ROE expansion and capital market valuations to gain importance in senior management KPIs.


China Oil Sector: A Look from SOE Valuation Enhancement Angle

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.</li>
<li>At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the implications of the deal and what one can glean from looking at the previous dividend payout for JD.com.</li>
</ul>


On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn.
In this note, we talk about the implications of the deal and what one can glean from looking at the previous dividend payout for JD.com.


Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$17bn Overhang Is Almost Here - Lesson from JD.com

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.4% as of Feb 3rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 6.3ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, real estate, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Great Wall Motor, CICC, Shanghai Haohai, Chalieco, Cosco Ship.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.4% as of Feb 3rd.
The average A-H premium changed by 6.3ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, real estate, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Great Wall Motor, CICC, Shanghai Haohai, Chalieco, Cosco Ship.


A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 3rd): Great Wall Motor, CICC, Shanghai Haohai, Chalieco, Cosco Ship

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.3% as of Dec 9th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt weeok on week, led by health care, real estate, materials and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Weichai Power, Shanghai Fudan, Guolian Securities, Joinn Lab, Great Wall Motor, Tsingtao Brewery.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.3% as of Dec 9th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt weeok on week, led by health care, real estate, materials and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Weichai Power, Shanghai Fudan, Guolian Securities, Joinn Lab, Great Wall Motor, Tsingtao Brewery.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 9th): Weichai Power, Shanghai Fudan, Guolian, Joinn Lab, GWC, Tsingtao

China

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. processes crude oil into a broad range of synthetic fibers, resins and plastics, intermediate petrochemical products and petroleum products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sinopec Shanghai Petroche A (600688 CH)

China Oil Sector: A Look from SOE Valuation Enhancement Angle

Higher dividend payout, privatisation of undervalued subsidiaries, return to A-shares, share buyback and upping stake by major shareholders can...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$17bn Overhang Is Almost Here - Lesson from JD.com

On 16th Nov 22, Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan. The US$17bn overhang...

Sumeet Singh

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 3rd): Great Wall Motor, CICC, Shanghai Haohai, Chalieco, Cosco Ship

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Great Wall Motor, CICC, Shanghai Haohai, Chalieco, Cosco Ship.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 9th): Weichai Power, Shanghai Fudan, Guolian, Joinn Lab, GWC, Tsingtao

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Weichai Power, Shanghai Fudan, Guolian Securities, Joinn...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)