Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 18th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology, CICC, Citic Securities.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 18th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology, CICC, Citic Securities.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 18th): Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>’s monthly update notes that the consortium has secured SAMR approval and made progress in obtaining the other regulatory approvals. </li>
<li>As expected, the precondition will not be satisfied before the 18 October long stop date. Unexpectedly, whether the consortium members will consent to the extension remains uncertain.</li>
<li>The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from a deal break, the time investment is significant, and the warning was legally required.</li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update notes that the consortium has secured SAMR approval and made progress in obtaining the other regulatory approvals. 
As expected, the precondition will not be satisfied before the 18 October long stop date. Unexpectedly, whether the consortium members will consent to the extension remains uncertain.
The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from a deal break, the time investment is significant, and the warning was legally required.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Theatre of the Absurd

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes. </li>
<li>The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM's profits or prospects.</li>
<li>If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote. </li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes. 
The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM's profits or prospects.
If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote. 


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the HSI surging 21.2% since 24 Sep and many stocks have even doubled, the strategy in the HK and China markets will move to chase the laggards.</li>
<li>Among the underperforming HSI constituents, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> are the better candidates to pick up performance. </li>
<li>For HSCEI, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a> have lagged but their stories are interesting and should regain momentum.</li>
</ul>


With the HSI surging 21.2% since 24 Sep and many stocks have even doubled, the strategy in the HK and China markets will move to chase the laggards.
Among the underperforming HSI constituents, China Resources Power (836 HK) and China Mobile (941 HK) are the better candidates to pick up performance. 
For HSCEI, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) and China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) have lagged but their stories are interesting and should regain momentum.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> inclusion and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> deletion are high probability changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a> being added and of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a> being deleted at the rebalance.</li>
<li>There has been big short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a> over the last couple of months while shorts would have covered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> recently.</li>
</ul>



PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) inclusion and Longfor Properties (960 HK) deletion are high probability changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December.
There is a lower probability of China Resources Power (836 HK) being added and of Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) being deleted at the rebalance.
There has been big short covering in PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK) over the last couple of months while shorts would have covered Longfor Properties (960 HK) recently.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: High & Low Probability Changes

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 18th): Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Theatre of the Absurd

The update will do little to soothe frayed nerves. The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from...

Arun George

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

According to the Beijing Municipal Government website, China TCM has received unconditional approval from SAMR. This news was largely expected and...

Arun George

China & HK Strategy: What to Grab?

Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: High & Low Probability Changes

There is one high probability change and one low probability change for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.5%...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 18th): Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Theatre of the Absurd

The update will do little to soothe frayed nerves. The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from...

Arun George

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

According to the Beijing Municipal Government website, China TCM has received unconditional approval from SAMR. This news was largely expected and...

Arun George

China & HK Strategy: What to Grab?

​Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: High & Low Probability Changes

There is one high probability change and one low probability change for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.5%...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...