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<ul><li>El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&amp;P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.</li><li>I found the following chart about soybean yields quite interesting and also important going forward.</li><li>Makes one think how sustainable last week’s price surge in beans actually is!!! El Nino tends to be good for soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil but also in the US.</li></ul>

El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&amp;P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.I found the following chart about soybean yields quite interesting and also important going forward.Makes one think how sustainable last week’s price surge in beans actually is!!! El Nino tends to be good for soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil but also in the US.

El Nino is here // River Rhine is drying up again // Managers are net short commodities

<ul><li>Farmer Sentiment continues to fall Producer sentiment fell to its weakest reading since July 2022 as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 19 points to a reading of 104 in May.</li><li>The Index of Future Expectations was down 22 points to a reading of 98 in May, while the Index of Current Conditions was down 13 points to a reading of 116.</li><li>This month’s lower sentiment was fueled by drops in both of the barometer’s sub-indices and likely triggered by weakened crop prices, according to the University of Purdue.</li></ul>

Farmer Sentiment continues to fall Producer sentiment fell to its weakest reading since July 2022 as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 19 points to a reading of 104 in May.The Index of Future Expectations was down 22 points to a reading of 98 in May, while the Index of Current Conditions was down 13 points to a reading of 116.This month’s lower sentiment was fueled by drops in both of the barometer’s sub-indices and likely triggered by weakened crop prices, according to the University of Purdue.

The Case for Oil // Farmer Sentiment continues to fall

<ul><li>El Nino effects start to sink in? During last week grain prices saw building up some momentum.</li><li>The DSCI drought index also surged after many weeks of continuous declines.</li><li>Nevertheless, we should actually see lots of rain during the summer in the US if we’ll see a classic El Nino.</li></ul>

El Nino effects start to sink in? During last week grain prices saw building up some momentum.The DSCI drought index also surged after many weeks of continuous declines.Nevertheless, we should actually see lots of rain during the summer in the US if we’ll see a classic El Nino.

The World Has a New No. 2 Copper Supplier  - El Nino Effects Start to Sink In?

<ul><li>While the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected at 48,5 (50,0 expected), the Flash Service PMI came in once again higher than expected at 55,1 (52,6 expected)</li><li>Prometheus Research shared this overview with us that highlights that the Service sector continues to hold this economy up.</li><li>The majority of service businesses continue to stay in the growing territory - this needs to change before we actually see a recession in the service sector as well. Keep in mind that the Manufacturing sector in the US accounts for “only” 11% of GDP!</li></ul>

While the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected at 48,5 (50,0 expected), the Flash Service PMI came in once again higher than expected at 55,1 (52,6 expected)Prometheus Research shared this overview with us that highlights that the Service sector continues to hold this economy up.The majority of service businesses continue to stay in the growing territory - this needs to change before we actually see a recession in the service sector as well. Keep in mind that the Manufacturing sector in the US accounts for “only” 11% of GDP!

Make or break time for Gold // Goldman Sachs has no feeling for timing oil trades

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).</li>
<li>Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).</li>
<li>A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.</li>
</ul>


We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).
Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).
A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.


SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

United States

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

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Silver (SILVER COMDTY)

El Nino is here // River Rhine is drying up again // Managers are net short commodities

El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.

The Commodity Report

The Case for Oil // Farmer Sentiment continues to fall

Farmer Sentiment continues to fall Producer sentiment fell to its weakest reading since July 2022 as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy...

The Commodity Report

The World Has a New No. 2 Copper Supplier - El Nino Effects Start to Sink In?

El Nino effects start to sink in? During last week grain prices saw building up some momentum. The DSCI drought index also surged after many weeks...

The Commodity Report

Make or break time for Gold // Goldman Sachs has no feeling for timing oil trades

While the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected at 48,5 (50,0 expected), the Flash Service PMI came in once again higher than...

The Commodity Report

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

We continue believe that upside is limited with the $SPX testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200). On the off chance...

Vermilion Research

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