Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q124 silicon wafer area shipments amounted to 2,834 MSI, down 5% QoQ and down 13.2% YoY. </li>
<li>In revenue terms, the top 4 global manufacturers reported revenues of $2.2 billion, down 10.4% QoQ and down 20.8% YoY.</li>
<li>Taiwan's recent earthquake did not impact Globalwafers shipments due to high inventory levels. However, tools were damaged, highlighting the risk of having so much wafer production in earthquake prone countries</li>
</ul>


Q124 silicon wafer area shipments amounted to 2,834 MSI, down 5% QoQ and down 13.2% YoY. 
In revenue terms, the top 4 global manufacturers reported revenues of $2.2 billion, down 10.4% QoQ and down 20.8% YoY.
Taiwan's recent earthquake did not impact Globalwafers shipments due to high inventory levels. However, tools were damaged, highlighting the risk of having so much wafer production in earthquake prone countries


Silicon Wafer Q124 Review, CY24 Outlook & Earthquake Risk

<ul>
<li>Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release</li>
<li>Inventory levels, while gradually improving, are still at all time record highs</li>
<li>In the case of Siltronic, it seems likely that Automotive end-market weakness is the main culprit</li>
</ul>


Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release
Inventory levels, while gradually improving, are still at all time record highs
In the case of Siltronic, it seems likely that Automotive end-market weakness is the main culprit


Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

<ul>
<li>Ferrotec's production of 150mm wafers in China has increased &gt;6x since 2019</li>
<li>Siltronic's production of 150mm and smaller wafer diameters is no longer profitable</li>
<li>China likely now self-sufficient in the supply of 150mm and smaller diameter silicon wafers. Next milestone: 200mm wafers. </li>
</ul>


Ferrotec's production of 150mm wafers in China has increased &gt;6x since 2019
Siltronic's production of 150mm and smaller wafer diameters is no longer profitable
China likely now self-sufficient in the supply of 150mm and smaller diameter silicon wafers. Next milestone: 200mm wafers. 


Siltronic To Exit Small Diameter Wafer Market by 2025

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of ¥105.1 billion, about 5% better than forecasted, up 5% QoQ but down ~10% YoY.</li>
<li>Q124 revenues forecasted to decline 17% QoQ to ¥87 billion. Not surprisingly, EBITDA will also decline 33% QoQ to ¥22.1 billion.</li>
<li>On a brighter note, demand growth driven by generative AI will roughly double wafer demand for servers (AI+General) by 2027</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of ¥105.1 billion, about 5% better than forecasted, up 5% QoQ but down ~10% YoY.
Q124 revenues forecasted to decline 17% QoQ to ¥87 billion. Not surprisingly, EBITDA will also decline 33% QoQ to ¥22.1 billion.
On a brighter note, demand growth driven by generative AI will roughly double wafer demand for servers (AI+General) by 2027


SUMCO's Sobering Outlook For Silicon Wafers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Asm International Nv / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure</li>
<li>We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure
We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications


EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

Germany

Siltronic AG manufactures hyperpure silicon wafers. The Company offers products including non-polished and epitaxial coated wafers with different diameter sizes. Siltronic caters its products worldwide for use in computers, smartphones, flat-panel displays, navigation systems, automotive engine control systems, and many other applications.

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Siltronic AG (WAF GR)

Silicon Wafer Q124 Review, CY24 Outlook & Earthquake Risk

Q124 wafer shipments 2,834 MSI, -5% QoQ & -13.2% YoY. Revenues of top 4 were $2.2 billion, -10.4% QoQ & -20.8% YoY. Siltronic makes a good hedge...

William Keating

Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release. It seems likely that Automotive end-market...

William Keating

Siltronic To Exit Small Diameter Wafer Market by 2025

Ferrotec's 150mm capacity in China >6x since 2019. Siltronic's 150mm & smaller wafers no longer profitable.China likely now self-sufficient in...

William Keating

SUMCO's Sobering Outlook For Silicon Wafers

Q423 revenues of ¥105.1 billion, +5% QoQ but -10% YoY. Q124 revenues -17% QoQ to ¥87 billion. EBITDA -33% QoQ to ¥22.1 billion. AI demand will...

William Keating

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

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