Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors</li>
<li>After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.</li>
<li>We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors
After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.
We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.


Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Silicon wafers area shipments (in MSI) declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023</li>
<li>Wafer revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion over the same period</li>
<li>We expect Q124 revenues to be down ~20% QoQ and anticipate a further 5% YoY decline in full year 2024 shipments</li>
</ul>


Silicon wafers area shipments (in MSI) declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023
Wafer revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion over the same period
We expect Q124 revenues to be down ~20% QoQ and anticipate a further 5% YoY decline in full year 2024 shipments


Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

<ul>
<li>The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.</li>
<li>China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” </li>
<li>The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don't know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won't be a recovery.</li>
</ul>


The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.
China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” 
The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don't know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won't be a recovery.


SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

<ul>
<li>Silicon wafer area shipments in Q324 amounted to 3,214 million square inches (MSI), up 5.9% QoQ and up 6.8% YoY,</li>
<li>Q324 saw the combined revenues from the top four players in the segment reaching $2.5 billion, up 0.5% QoQ and up 6.5% YoY</li>
<li>Top 4 EBIT amounted to just $337 million, up 1.5% QoQ but down 38.9% YoY.</li>
</ul>


Silicon wafer area shipments in Q324 amounted to 3,214 million square inches (MSI), up 5.9% QoQ and up 6.8% YoY,
Q324 saw the combined revenues from the top four players in the segment reaching $2.5 billion, up 0.5% QoQ and up 6.5% YoY
Top 4 EBIT amounted to just $337 million, up 1.5% QoQ but down 38.9% YoY.


Silicon Wafers Q324 Area Shipments, Revenue, EBIT, Outlook & More

<ul>
<li>During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.</li>
<li>Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.</li>
<li>The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase. Yet, you can buy the key players today for the same price you would have paid 5 years ago. That's nice..</li>
</ul>


During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.
Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.
The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase. Yet, you can buy the key players today for the same price you would have paid 5 years ago. That's nice..


Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Germany

Siltronic AG manufactures hyperpure silicon wafers. The Company offers products including non-polished and epitaxial coated wafers with different diameter sizes. Siltronic caters its products worldwide for use in computers, smartphones, flat-panel displays, navigation systems, automotive engine control systems, and many other applications.

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Siltronic AG (WAF GR)

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

Silicon wafers area shipments declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023 while revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion. Q124 revenues will be down ~20%...

William Keating

SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

There isn't much point in speculating about things we don't understand. We don't know whether it is a slow recovery or if there won't be a...

William Keating

Silicon Wafers Q324 Area Shipments, Revenue, EBIT, Outlook & More

Q324 silicon wafer area shipments in 3,214 MSI , +5.9% QoQ & +6.8% YoY. Top 4 revenues $2.5 billion, +0.5% QoQ & + 6.5% YoY. Top 4 EBIT $337...

William Keating

Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Silicon wafer area shipments increased 7.1% QoQ in Q224 while revenues of the top 4 players increased 12.3%. The segment is finally recovering but...

William Keating

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