IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Hollysys Automation Technologies / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> update notes a new MBO proposal at US$25 per share, a bidders shortlist in several weeks and an update on the special meeting. </li>
<li>The update suggests several potential bidders and enough shareholders with the required record date to convene the special meeting to appoint independent directors. </li>
<li>The MBO proposal, while potentially a delaying tactic, suggests that the Board are under pressure for a solution and is aiming for a friendly takeover. </li>
</ul>



Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) update notes a new MBO proposal at US$25 per share, a bidders shortlist in several weeks and an update on the special meeting. 
The update suggests several potential bidders and enough shareholders with the required record date to convene the special meeting to appoint independent directors. 
The MBO proposal, while potentially a delaying tactic, suggests that the Board are under pressure for a solution and is aiming for a friendly takeover. 


Hollysys (HOLI US): MBO Proposal and Updates

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> Board succumbs to shareholder pressure by announcing the formation of a special committee to conduct a formal sale process.</li>
<li>Hollysys has received non-binding proposals from six parties since December 2020. The most recent is a non-binding proposal from the Recco consortium at US$25.00 per share.</li>
<li>The Board’s change of heart should encourage previous bidders to re-engage. Recco’s offer, while attractive, is not a knockout bid, suggesting a possible bidding war. </li>
</ul>


The Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) Board succumbs to shareholder pressure by announcing the formation of a special committee to conduct a formal sale process.
Hollysys has received non-binding proposals from six parties since December 2020. The most recent is a non-binding proposal from the Recco consortium at US$25.00 per share.
The Board’s change of heart should encourage previous bidders to re-engage. Recco’s offer, while attractive, is not a knockout bid, suggesting a possible bidding war. 


Hollysys (HOLI US): Board Starts a Formal Sale Process

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a> ’ US IPO.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings ’ US IPO.
ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


ARM Holdings Limited - The Positives - Pervasive Global Presence

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.</li>
<li>On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.</li>
<li>Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We'll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.
On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.
Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We'll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Germany

Siemens AG is an engineering and manufacturing company. The Company focuses on areas of electrification, automation, and digitalization. Siemens also provides engineering solutions in automation and control, power, transportation, and medical diagnosis.

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Siemens (SIE GR)

Hollysys (HOLI US): MBO Proposal and Updates

The MBO proposal, while potentially a delaying tactic, suggests that the Board are under pressure for a solution and is aiming for a friendly...

Arun George

Hollysys (HOLI US): Board Starts a Formal Sale Process

The Board’s change of heart should encourage previous bidders to re-engage. While attractive, Recco’s US$25 per share offer is not a knockout bid,...

Arun George

ARM Holdings Limited - The Positives - Pervasive Global Presence

Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings ’ US IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Toshiba (6502) - Thinking About the Arb

Toshiba has seen shares rise a bit since Day1 post-anncmt ~6 weeks ago, but Peers have risen further and the earnings shift on forward consensus is...

Travis Lundy

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

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