HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The imagination space and good stories for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK)</a> at this stage mainly come from SKB264. The market has higher expectations for SKB264’s clinical data on NSCLC/TNBC. </li>
<li>The better the clinical results of SKB264 +PD1/L1, the greater the negative impact on AK112’s future expectations/market space in NSCLC. ADC +PD-1 seems more “convincing” than the logic of BsAb.</li>
<li>This July, restricted shares of major shareholders will be lifted, which may lead to big share price fluctuation if they reduce their shareholdings. Investors need not rush to be long.</li>
</ul>


The imagination space and good stories for Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) at this stage mainly come from SKB264. The market has higher expectations for SKB264’s clinical data on NSCLC/TNBC. 
The better the clinical results of SKB264 +PD1/L1, the greater the negative impact on AK112’s future expectations/market space in NSCLC. ADC +PD-1 seems more “convincing” than the logic of BsAb.
This July, restricted shares of major shareholders will be lifted, which may lead to big share price fluctuation if they reduce their shareholdings. Investors need not rush to be long.


Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) - Current High Valuation Is Not Secure

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Kelun-Biotech recorded RMB1.38bn (+32% YoY) revenue in 1H24, including a total of US$90mn (or RMB641mn) milestone payments from MSD regarding multiple collaborated pipelines.</li><li>In 1H24, Kelun-Biotech spent RMB652mn on R&amp;D, +33% YoY, mainly driven by an uptick in clinical trials.</li><li>The company is gearing up for the near-term launch of several key assets in China, including sac-TMT (TROP2 ADC), A166 (HER2 ADC), A167 (PD-L1 mAb) and A140 (cetuximab biosimilar) in 2H24 or 1H25. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kelun-Biotech recorded RMB1.38bn (+32% YoY) revenue in 1H24, including a total of US$90mn (or RMB641mn) milestone payments from MSD regarding multiple collaborated pipelines.In 1H24, Kelun-Biotech spent RMB652mn on R&amp;D, +33% YoY, mainly driven by an uptick in clinical trials.The company is gearing up for the near-term launch of several key assets in China, including sac-TMT (TROP2 ADC), A166 (HER2 ADC), A167 (PD-L1 mAb) and A140 (cetuximab biosimilar) in 2H24 or 1H25. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) - Innovative Bispecific ADC Product Licensed to MSD

<ul><li>Promising efficacy of SKB264+A167 in 1L NSCLC. SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189 and 9.7 months mPFS of tislelizumab+chemo in RATIONALE304.</li><li>SKB264’s Ph3 dose of Q2W could deliver even better efficacy, in our view.</li><li>SKB264 (Q2W) +A167 also showed strong potential in PD-L1 negative NSCLC, with 63.2% ORR and 82.2% 6-mo PFS rate.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Promising efficacy of SKB264+A167 in 1L NSCLC. SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189 and 9.7 months mPFS of tislelizumab+chemo in RATIONALE304.SKB264’s Ph3 dose of Q2W could deliver even better efficacy, in our view.SKB264 (Q2W) +A167 also showed strong potential in PD-L1 negative NSCLC, with 63.2% ORR and 82.2% 6-mo PFS rate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) - Data Release at ASCO Further Confirmed SKB264’s Potential

<ul>
<li>Since IPO, stock price of Kelun-Biotech has performed quite well. Then, the Company's valuation fluctuated. Investors seem not excited about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK)</a>’s 23H1 performance.</li>
<li>We won’t expect too much on A166 in such a difficult competitive landscape.Commercialization of SKB264 is also challenging.It's difficult to make up the story after A166/SKB264 begin to generate revenue.</li>
<li>After out-licensing all valuable/core assets to Merck, together with the departure of core R&amp;D personnel, Kelun-Biotech has been “hollowed out”.So, Kelun-Biotech's value lies in short-term trade rather than long-term hold.</li>
</ul>


Since IPO, stock price of Kelun-Biotech has performed quite well. Then, the Company's valuation fluctuated. Investors seem not excited about Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK)’s 23H1 performance.
We won’t expect too much on A166 in such a difficult competitive landscape.Commercialization of SKB264 is also challenging.It's difficult to make up the story after A166/SKB264 begin to generate revenue.
After out-licensing all valuable/core assets to Merck, together with the departure of core R&amp;D personnel, Kelun-Biotech has been “hollowed out”.So, Kelun-Biotech's value lies in short-term trade rather than long-term hold.


Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) - Once the Products Hit the Market, Good Story May Stop

<ul><li>Kelun-Biotech recorded RMB1.54bn revenue in FY23, primarily from licensing and collaboration agreements with MSD.</li><li>In Mar 2023, SKB received around RMB1.21bn upfront payment from MSD for out-licensing certain pre-clinical ADC assets, a portion of which was recognized in FY23.</li><li>Additionally, Kelun-Biotech received RMB215mn milestone payment from MSD related to SKB264 in 4Q23. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kelun-Biotech recorded RMB1.54bn revenue in FY23, primarily from licensing and collaboration agreements with MSD.In Mar 2023, SKB received around RMB1.21bn upfront payment from MSD for out-licensing certain pre-clinical ADC assets, a portion of which was recognized in FY23.Additionally, Kelun-Biotech received RMB215mn milestone payment from MSD related to SKB264 in 4Q23. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) - Intense Data Release to Further Validate the Global Potential of SKB264

China

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. operates biotechnology businesses. The Company develops and provides biological drugs, chemical raw materials, antibody conjugating drugs, innovative drugs, and other products. Kelun Biotech also operates import and export businesses.

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Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK)