Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Shougang Fushan Resources / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shougang-fushan-resources-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19494:1" rel="noopener">Shougang Fushan </a><a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Resources' (639 HK) </a>FY24 revenues/profits were down 14%/21% YoY due to the decline in coking coal prices, which were 14% YoY to 1666 RMB/ton (on similar volumes). </li>
<li>At 1295 RMB/ton, spot prices are 25% lower than last year's average, yet the stock is supported by cash, which represents 80% of its market capitalization (10 billion HKD).</li>
<li>The company provided a 100% payout of 30 HKD cents, resulting in a 12% dividend yield; however, at current spot prices, the yield is 7%.</li>
</ul>



Shougang Fushan Resources' (639 HK) FY24 revenues/profits were down 14%/21% YoY due to the decline in coking coal prices, which were 14% YoY to 1666 RMB/ton (on similar volumes). 
At 1295 RMB/ton, spot prices are 25% lower than last year's average, yet the stock is supported by cash, which represents 80% of its market capitalization (10 billion HKD).
The company provided a 100% payout of 30 HKD cents, resulting in a 12% dividend yield; however, at current spot prices, the yield is 7%.


Fushan Energy (639 HK): Cash 80% of Market Cap, 100% Payout Implies 12% Trailing Dividend Yield

<ul>
<li>We listened to the <a href="https://whitehavencoal.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Whitehaven-Investor_update.mp4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">conference call </a>held by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> to update investors on its acquisition of BHP's coking coal mines and  Q2 2024 production. </li>
<li>Based on spot prices of coking coal over 350 USD/ton and cash costs of 20% lower than the average of 2 years, the EV-EBITDA of acquisition is 1.8x</li>
<li>The acquisition could be massively accretive if coking coal prices remain stronger for longer as the company pivots its strategy to becoming a large met coal producer. </li>
</ul>


We listened to the conference call held by Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) to update investors on its acquisition of BHP's coking coal mines and  Q2 2024 production. 
Based on spot prices of coking coal over 350 USD/ton and cash costs of 20% lower than the average of 2 years, the EV-EBITDA of acquisition is 1.8x
The acquisition could be massively accretive if coking coal prices remain stronger for longer as the company pivots its strategy to becoming a large met coal producer. 


Whitehaven Coal: Great Acquisition, Cash Gone, Now At The Mercy of The Cycle

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shougang-fushan-resources-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19494:1" rel="noopener">Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK)</a> experienced a decline of 23% YoY in NPAT for H1 2023 despite coal prices falling 22% YoY due to improved coking coal recovery rates. </li>
<li>Gross cash and Investments totaled 9.4 bn HKD. Netting the dividend/tax payable and buyback of 1.4/0.4/0.3 bn HKD, net cash is 7.3 bn (60% of mktcap) and growing. </li>
<li>We estimate a dividend payment of 32 cents (13% yield) for FY23e; H1 FY23 dividend payment was 10 cents ( H1 FY22: 15 cents  FY22: 43 cents).</li>
</ul>



Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) experienced a decline of 23% YoY in NPAT for H1 2023 despite coal prices falling 22% YoY due to improved coking coal recovery rates. 
Gross cash and Investments totaled 9.4 bn HKD. Netting the dividend/tax payable and buyback of 1.4/0.4/0.3 bn HKD, net cash is 7.3 bn (60% of mktcap) and growing. 
We estimate a dividend payment of 32 cents (13% yield) for FY23e; H1 FY23 dividend payment was 10 cents ( H1 FY22: 15 cents  FY22: 43 cents).


Shougang Fushan: Efficiency Gains Help H1 2023, Cash ~60% of Mkt Cap, FY23 Yield 13%

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shougang-fushan-resources-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19494:1" rel="noopener">Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK)</a> has launched a partial offer to acquire a maximum of 125.0m shares (2.47% of outstanding) at HK$2.40 per share, a 17.6% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The partial offer is conditional on approval by more than 50% of disinterested shares and the shareholder approval of the whitewash waiver. There is no minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>The 2020 partial offer, which was at a 9.3% premium to the undisturbed price and -17% below the current offer, was overwhelmingly approved. Therefore, the current offer should be approved.  </li>
</ul>



Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) has launched a partial offer to acquire a maximum of 125.0m shares (2.47% of outstanding) at HK$2.40 per share, a 17.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The partial offer is conditional on approval by more than 50% of disinterested shares and the shareholder approval of the whitewash waiver. There is no minimum acceptance condition.
The 2020 partial offer, which was at a 9.3% premium to the undisturbed price and -17% below the current offer, was overwhelmingly approved. Therefore, the current offer should be approved.  


Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK): Partial Offer at HK$2.40

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shougang-fushan-resources-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19494:1" rel="noopener">Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK)</a> trades at 4.5x/5.1x FY22e/23e with 50% of the market cap in cash and a 17.8%/15.8% FY23e/24e dividend yield (based on an 80% payout ratio).</li>
<li>Since our call in FY21, close to 64 cents of the share price (25% of the current share price value) has been returned as dividends making it a dividend machine. </li>
<li>We forecast at least another 70 cents of dividend for H2 FY22 and FY23, bringing the dividend in 3.5 years to more than half the current share price. </li>
</ul>



Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) trades at 4.5x/5.1x FY22e/23e with 50% of the market cap in cash and a 17.8%/15.8% FY23e/24e dividend yield (based on an 80% payout ratio).
Since our call in FY21, close to 64 cents of the share price (25% of the current share price value) has been returned as dividends making it a dividend machine. 
We forecast at least another 70 cents of dividend for H2 FY22 and FY23, bringing the dividend in 3.5 years to more than half the current share price. 


Fushan Energy: 50% of Mkt Cap in Cash / ~18% Dividend Yield / Great Returns Just in Dividends

Hong Kong

Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd. produces and sells coking coal products and side products in China. The Company is principally engaged in mining of coking coal and production and sales of raw and clean coking coal,

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK)

Fushan Energy (639 HK): Cash 80% of Market Cap, 100% Payout Implies 12% Trailing Dividend Yield

We summarize the FY24 earnings for Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK). With over 80% of the market capitalization in cash and a low-cost production...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Coal: Great Acquisition, Cash Gone, Now At The Mercy of The Cycle

We provide our take on the recent acquisition of the coal assets of BHP by Whitehaven Coal. By consuming all its cash and taking on debt, the...

Sameer Taneja

Shougang Fushan: Efficiency Gains Help H1 2023, Cash ~60% of Mkt Cap, FY23 Yield 13%

Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) is a cheap stock. It trades at 6x PE and 1.4x EV-EBITDA with a potentially 13% yield for FY23e. We review its H1...

Sameer Taneja