'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/088/401/original/2019-05-21_15-51-33.png?1558421503" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="88401"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>SECOND DOWN QUARTER - This Insight will review the aggregate results for the 3765 listed Japanese companies as of 20th May 2019 for which there are at least four reported quarters. We shall also cover our updated Results &amp; Revision Scores for the Market Composite and each of our 30 Sectors. Having declined by 2.50% in the 'winter' quarter reported Operating Income fell by another 0.96%. The declines in Net Income were 8.04% and 4.93%, respectively. Aggregate Net Income is now at the same level as in February 2018.NOT THAT 'CONSERVATIVE' - For most companies, the 'spring' quarter marks the end of the fiscal year and is accompanied by the release of forecasts for the current year ending March 2020.  The normal sell-side 'mantra' is that such forecasts are always 'conservative'. In light of current economic conditions (imports -17.2% qoq annualised) and the outlook global trade, we consider the 2020 forecasts to be relatively optimistic. Operating Income is expected to rise by 0.5% compared to last quarter and by 2.6% relative to the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) results. Forecast Net Income is unchanged from last quarter but is 4% above TTM. NO LONGER 'CHEAP' - As a result of the weaker TTM results, the market multiple has risen to close to 15 times and the market is no longer the bargain it reached on Christmas Day. The upside to a 'normal' market multiple (16.7) is now only 11%, or the market is implying that Net Income has to fall by a similar amount.   <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/088/408/original/2019-05-21_16-29-55.png?1558423805" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="88408"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/088/411/original/2019-05-21_16-39-58.png?1558424413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="88411"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>ROLLING TTMs AND PEAKING MARGINS - Our series of rolling trailing-twelve-month (TTM) quarterly aggregates of all listed companies confirm the profit peak. Revenues are still increasing by 5% a year; however, the rolling quarterly rate of increase is slowing. The 2% Revenue growth forecast for this year appears optimistic. Operating Income declined by 0.9% qoq in the quarter just declared which was forecast to be flat. TTM Operating Income is now lower than in any of the last five quarters. As noted above, the forecast is for 2.6% growth this fiscal year. Operating margins peaked at 7.78% one year ago and have declined by 45 basis points since then. They are forecast to remain at current levels this year.  TTM Net Margins (not shown above) are now 5.02% having fallen 83 basis points in the last two quarters. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/088/418/original/2019-05-21_17-16-38.png?1558426621" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="88418"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>RESULT &amp; REVISION SCORE FLATTENS OUT - Our Results &amp; Revision Score - details on the methodology are provided below - has a better correlation (0.80) with the market than the TTM results (0.70) and, as it includes elements of momentum, is often an excellent leading indicator. The detailed breakdown between the three components (Results, Annual Forecast/Revision, Interim Forecast/Revision) is provided below, however, the improvement in Annual Forecast/Revision  Score was sufficient to offset declines in the other two components and produced the most significant increase (+22%) in the Score since November 2017.SECOND HALF RECOVERY? - We had expected the Score to be negative by this month and for the upturn to be in late 2019. Although the now-negative Interim Forecast/Revision Score suggests further weakness ahead, Japanese corporates are collectively signalling a strong recovery in the second half. In the DETAIL section below we shall examine the trends in earnings results and forecasts for the 30 sectors that make up our Market Composite and look at the breakdown of the Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score and our 30 Sector Scores.


Source: Japan Analytics
SECOND DOWN QUARTER - This Insight will review the aggregate results for the 3765 listed Japanese companies as of 20th May 2019 for which there are at least four reported quarters. We shall also cover our updated Results &amp; Revision Scores for the Market Composite and each of our 30 Sectors. Having declined by 2.50% in the 'winter' quarter reported Operating Income fell by another 0.96%. The declines in Net Income were 8.04% and 4.93%, respectively. Aggregate Net Income is now at the same level as in February 2018.NOT THAT 'CONSERVATIVE' - For most companies, the 'spring' quarter marks the end of the fiscal year and is accompanied by the release of forecasts for the current year ending March 2020.  The normal sell-side 'mantra' is that such forecasts are always 'conservative'. In light of current economic conditions (imports -17.2% qoq annualised) and the outlook global trade, we consider the 2020 forecasts to be relatively optimistic. Operating Income is expected to rise by 0.5% compared to last quarter and by 2.6% relative to the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) results. Forecast Net Income is unchanged from last quarter but is 4% above TTM. NO LONGER 'CHEAP' - As a result of the weaker TTM results, the market multiple has risen to close to 15 times and the market is no longer the bargain it reached on Christmas Day. The upside to a 'normal' market multiple (16.7) is now only 11%, or the market is implying that Net Income has to fall by a similar amount.   Source: Japan AnalyticsROLLING TTMs AND PEAKING MARGINS - Our series of rolling trailing-twelve-month (TTM) quarterly aggregates of all listed companies confirm the profit peak. Revenues are still increasing by 5% a year; however, the rolling quarterly rate of increase is slowing. The 2% Revenue growth forecast for this year appears optimistic. Operating Income declined by 0.9% qoq in the quarter just declared which was forecast to be flat. TTM Operating Income is now lower than in any of the last five quarters. As noted above, the forecast is for 2.6% growth this fiscal year. Operating margins peaked at 7.78% one year ago and have declined by 45 basis points since then. They are forecast to remain at current levels this year.  TTM Net Margins (not shown above) are now 5.02% having fallen 83 basis points in the last two quarters. Source: Japan AnalyticsRESULT &amp; REVISION SCORE FLATTENS OUT - Our Results &amp; Revision Score - details on the methodology are provided below - has a better correlation (0.80) with the market than the TTM results (0.70) and, as it includes elements of momentum, is often an excellent leading indicator. The detailed breakdown between the three components (Results, Annual Forecast/Revision, Interim Forecast/Revision) is provided below, however, the improvement in Annual Forecast/Revision  Score was sufficient to offset declines in the other two components and produced the most significant increase (+22%) in the Score since November 2017.SECOND HALF RECOVERY? - We had expected the Score to be negative by this month and for the upturn to be in late 2019. Although the now-negative Interim Forecast/Revision Score suggests further weakness ahead, Japanese corporates are collectively signalling a strong recovery in the second half. In the DETAIL section below we shall examine the trends in earnings results and forecasts for the 30 sectors that make up our Market Composite and look at the breakdown of the Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score and our 30 Sector Scores.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Spring Results & Revisions - Market  & Sector Aggregates & Scores - 2nd▼Quarter

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is supported technically with all major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) pulling back to their respective 200-day moving averages. In this report we highlight important technical levels across global markets and highlight actionable opportunities from a bottoms-up perspective within Europe (attractive pullback opportunity on the STOXX Europe 600 index) and Japan, including stocks within Financials, Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing.

As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is supported technically with all major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) pulling back to their respective 200-day moving averages. In this report we highlight important technical levels across global markets and highlight actionable opportunities from a bottoms-up perspective within Europe (attractive pullback opportunity on the STOXX Europe 600 index) and Japan, including stocks within Financials, Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing.

Opportunities in European & Japanese Equities

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Equity Bottom-Up

Last week, three major multi-level marketing companies with meaningful exposure to China reported very divergent results in Q1.  Contrasting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12451" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12451:1">Nu Skin Enterprises Inc A (NUS US)</a> China’s Q1 beat by a long shot (12% growth YoY in RMB term) is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6216" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6216:1">Herbalife Ltd (HLF US)</a>  catastrophic miss in China VP sales (down ~32% YoY), we concluded the following:

Last week, three major multi-level marketing companies with meaningful exposure to China reported very divergent results in Q1.  Contrasting Nu Skin Enterprises Inc A (NUS US) China’s Q1 beat by a long shot (12% growth YoY in RMB term) is Herbalife Ltd (HLF US)  catastrophic miss in China VP sales (down ~32% YoY), we concluded the following: 

American Direct Seller in China Q1 Preview- USNA, HLF, NUS

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

FANCL Corporation’s share price gained more than 25% over the last 3 months on the back of the positivity surrounding the Japanese cosmetics industry. The stock may not look cheap at over 30x Forward PE, but considering its long-term growth prospects we are very optimistic about FANCL in the long run.
In our previous insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fancl-playing-the-long-game" target="_blank">FANCL: Playing the Long Game</a> we, covered the stock on a traditional investment research angle. In that we expected the company to outperform the competition in the long run. Now we take a more novel approach using alternative data to analyse FANCL’s short to medium term prospects. The results are as good and therefore we maintain our positive view on FANCL prior to the release of their FY03/19 results which is due on the 25th of April 2019.
<ul>
<li>
Consensus estimates reversions on the back of weak inbound sales and maturing Calolimit and Enkin
<ul>
<li>Calolimit – POS data analysis</li>
<li>Enkin – POS data analysis</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
Rest of supplements business and cosmetics steady growth- Doesn’t justify estimate reversions 
<ul>
<li>Naishi Support – POS data analysis</li>
<li>Cosmetics expected to grow 8% YoY in 4QFY03/19</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>FANCL to beat FY03/19 guidance and consensus estimates</li>
<li>We expect even stronger performance in FY03/20</li>
</ul>

FANCL Corporation’s share price gained more than 25% over the last 3 months on the back of the positivity surrounding the Japanese cosmetics industry. The stock may not look cheap at over 30x Forward PE, but considering its long-term growth prospects we are very optimistic about FANCL in the long run.
In our previous insight: FANCL: Playing the Long Game we, covered the stock on a traditional investment research angle. In that we expected the company to outperform the competition in the long run. Now we take a more novel approach using alternative data to analyse FANCL’s short to medium term prospects. The results are as good and therefore we maintain our positive view on FANCL prior to the release of their FY03/19 results which is due on the 25th of April 2019.


Consensus estimates reversions on the back of weak inbound sales and maturing Calolimit and Enkin

Calolimit – POS data analysis
Enkin – POS data analysis



Rest of supplements business and cosmetics steady growth- Doesn’t justify estimate reversions 

Naishi Support – POS data analysis
Cosmetics expected to grow 8% YoY in 4QFY03/19


FANCL to beat FY03/19 guidance and consensus estimates
We expect even stronger performance in FY03/20


FANCL Corporation: What to Expect in FY03/19 Results and Beyond

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A disappointing January saw almost all the Japanese cosmetic companies face dropping share price. In the meantime, the Nikkei index managed to increase by about 6%. FANCL was the biggest loser among cosmetics in January 2019, as the share price tumbled more than 11% during the month. Shiseido, Kose and Kao all saw their share prices decline during 2019 while Pola Orbis was the only Japanese cosmetics accompany that saw its share price rise during January 2019.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/085/478/original/1.jpg?1555906777" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="85478"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Cap IQ</div>
Since the lows of January, Japanese cosmetic stocks have rallied and to date have returned about 30% for investors. Kose, Shiseido and FANCL were the biggest winners as all three companies managed to generate more than 25% upside since their January lows. Other Japanese cosmetics companies also managed to outperform the Nikkei during the months of February, March and April.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/085/479/original/2.jpg?1555906818" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="85479"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Cap IQ</div>

A disappointing January saw almost all the Japanese cosmetic companies face dropping share price. In the meantime, the Nikkei index managed to increase by about 6%. FANCL was the biggest loser among cosmetics in January 2019, as the share price tumbled more than 11% during the month. Shiseido, Kose and Kao all saw their share prices decline during 2019 while Pola Orbis was the only Japanese cosmetics accompany that saw its share price rise during January 2019.

Source: Cap IQ
Since the lows of January, Japanese cosmetic stocks have rallied and to date have returned about 30% for investors. Kose, Shiseido and FANCL were the biggest winners as all three companies managed to generate more than 25% upside since their January lows. Other Japanese cosmetics companies also managed to outperform the Nikkei during the months of February, March and April.

Source: Cap IQ

Japan Cosmetic: FANCL, KOSE, Shiseido & Pola Orbis Making Progress as Worries of Weak January Fades

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Spring Results & Revisions - Market & Sector Aggregates & Scores - 2nd▼Quarter

SECOND DOWN QUARTER - This Insight will review the aggregate results for the 3765 listed Japanese companies as of 20th May 2019 for which there are...

Campbell Gunn

Opportunities in European & Japanese Equities

As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is...

Vermilion Research

American Direct Seller in China Q1 Preview- USNA, HLF, NUS

Last week, three major multi-level marketing companies with meaningful exposure to China reported very divergent results in Q1. Contrasting Nu...

JL Warren Capital

FANCL Corporation: What to Expect in FY03/19 Results and Beyond

FANCL Corporation’s share price gained more than 25% over the last 3 months on the back of the positivity surrounding the Japanese cosmetics...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Cosmetic: FANCL, KOSE, Shiseido & Pola Orbis Making Progress as Worries of Weak January Fades

A disappointing January saw almost all the Japanese cosmetic companies face dropping share price. In the meantime, the Nikkei index managed to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)