Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

Lotte Non Life Insurance Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It was reported in numerous local media that the sale process of Lotte Non Life Insurance Co (000400 KS) could start in October 2023.</li>
<li>There are four companies including Shinhan Financial (055550 KS), Hana Financial (086790 KS), Woori Financial Group (316140 KS), and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in acquiring Lotte Non-Life Insurance. </li>
<li>Minority shareholders are not likely to benefit from this potential huge management M&amp;A premium of Lotte Non-Life Insurance. </li>
</ul>


It was reported in numerous local media that the sale process of Lotte Non Life Insurance Co (000400 KS) could start in October 2023.
There are four companies including Shinhan Financial (055550 KS), Hana Financial (086790 KS), Woori Financial Group (316140 KS), and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in acquiring Lotte Non-Life Insurance. 
Minority shareholders are not likely to benefit from this potential huge management M&amp;A premium of Lotte Non-Life Insurance. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirae-asset-tiger-top-10-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36042:1" rel="noopener">Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS)</a> tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of over US$1bn.</li>
<li>We currently forecast one potential change at the next rebalance in December. There is another set of changes that could also take place.</li>
<li>There has been a big increase in short interest on a couple of stocks while the rise has been more gradual on the other stocks.</li>
</ul>


The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of over US$1bn.
We currently forecast one potential change at the next rebalance in December. There is another set of changes that could also take place.
There has been a big increase in short interest on a couple of stocks while the rise has been more gradual on the other stocks.


FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Good Historical Performance; One Potential Change in December

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>One of the biggest stories in the Korean economy in the past two days have been the quasi bank run at MG Community Credit Cooperative (MGCCC) (새마을금고).</li>
<li>The negative news about this has contributed to KOSPI falling two consecutive days (down 2% from July 5th to 7th). </li>
<li>MGCCC's delinquency rate jumped from 1.93% at the end of 2021 to 3.59% at the end of 2022 and 6.18% as of June 29th 2023.</li>
</ul>


One of the biggest stories in the Korean economy in the past two days have been the quasi bank run at MG Community Credit Cooperative (MGCCC) (새마을금고).
The negative news about this has contributed to KOSPI falling two consecutive days (down 2% from July 5th to 7th). 
MGCCC's delinquency rate jumped from 1.93% at the end of 2021 to 3.59% at the end of 2022 and 6.18% as of June 29th 2023.


A Quasi Bank Run at MG Community Credit Cooperative - What's Next?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Daewoo Shipping &amp; Marine Engineering early in May 2023 agreed to takeover by Hanwah Group</li>
<li>Hanwah Ocean, the re-named entity, reported financial stress for years, a lumpy NPL for banks</li>
<li>C&amp;P CIQ data suggests that all four major Korean banks are creditors to Hanwah Ocean</li>
</ul>


Daewoo Shipping &amp; Marine Engineering early in May 2023 agreed to takeover by Hanwah Group
Hanwah Ocean, the re-named entity, reported financial stress for years, a lumpy NPL for banks
C&amp;P CIQ data suggests that all four major Korean banks are creditors to Hanwah Ocean


Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

<ul>
<li>We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.</li>
<li>The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.</li>
<li>The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).</li>
</ul>


We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.
The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.
The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).


Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

South Korea

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

Industrial Bank of Korea(IBK) is a policy bank providing development finance and related banking services to support small and medium-sized enterprises in Korea. The Bank provides loans, discount bills, trade finance, deposits, foreign exchange, and payment guarantees. The company also offers services such as credit cards, insurance and smart-phone banking.

Woori Financial Group Inc. provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposit services, loan services, bill services, settlement services, credit card, international, online banking, and other related services. Woori Financial Group also operates banking and retail banking businesses.

BNK Financial Group Inc. a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services. The Company's main businesses include banking, trust banking, and assets management to individuals, businesses, and other financial institutions.

JB Financial Group Co. Ltd., a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services.

DGB Financial Group Inc., a financial holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services.  The Company operates and controls its financial subsidiaries such as Daegu Bank, Daegu Credit Information, and DBG Capital.

Jeju Bank is a regional commercial bank that provides banking, foreign exchange, trust account, and other related retail banking services.

Pureun Mutual Savings Bank provides financial services, such as loans, deposits, savings accounts, bills discounts, installment accounts, and foreign exchange.

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

CIMB Group Holdings Berhad provides commercial banking and related financial services. The Company and its subsidiaries, operate as a regional universal bank offering a full range of financial products and services, covering corporate and investment banking, consumer banking, treasury, insurance and asset management.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

Punjab National Bank provides financial services such as corporate and personal banking, industrial finance, agricultural finance, financing of trade and international banking. The Company provides services to domestic conglomerates, medium and small industrial units, exporters, non-resident Indians and multinational companies.

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Malayan Banking Berhad operates as a bank. The Company provides financial services such as insurance, asset management, stock broking, nominee services, venture capital, leasing, and Internet banking. Malayan Banking Berhad serves customers in South East Asia.

Bank of Nanjing Co., Ltd. operates commercial banking businesses. The Company offers deposits, loans, settlement, discounting, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting, bank guarantee, and other related financial services. Bank of Nanjing provides services for enterprises and individuals.

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd., a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services.  The company's main businesses include banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management to individuals, businesses, and other financial institutions.

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Shinhan Financial (055550 KS)

Lotte Non-Life Insurance: Who Will Buy?

There are four companies including Shinhan Financial, Hana Financial, Woori Financial Group, and Kyobo Life Insurance that may be interested in...

Douglas Kim

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Good Historical Performance; One Potential Change in December

A long add/short delete trade has performed well historically. Currently, there is one add/delete pair in Dec; that could increase to two. Short...

Brian Freitas

A Quasi Bank Run at MG Community Credit Cooperative - What's Next?

One of the biggest stories in the Korean economy in the past two days have been the quasi bank run at MG Community Credit Cooperative (MGCCC) (새마을금고).

Douglas Kim

Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

Hanwah Ocean recapitalization may suggest NPL benefits for Korea's largest banks, but other deterioration can overshadow this one single exposure....

Daniel Tabbush

Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising...

Douglas Kim

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