IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>'s pre-conditional tender offer from JIC is JPY4,350 per share. Since the deal announcement on 26 June, the gross spread has averaged 6.4%.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly in China. JIC, unusually can waive all or part of the conditions precedent.</li>
<li>The wild card is geopolitical developments. There are three China approval scenarios. The likely scenario is the deal approval under a normal procedure with a delay to the tender start.</li>
</ul>



JSR Corp (4185 JP)'s pre-conditional tender offer from JIC is JPY4,350 per share. Since the deal announcement on 26 June, the gross spread has averaged 6.4%.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly in China. JIC, unusually can waive all or part of the conditions precedent.
The wild card is geopolitical developments. There are three China approval scenarios. The likely scenario is the deal approval under a normal procedure with a delay to the tender start.


JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei followed by other media outlets revealed Saturday that the JIC (株式会社産業革新投資機構) were in talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> to acquire the photoresist maker for ¥1 trillion.</li>
<li>JSR's release (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4185/tdnet/2302693/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a>/<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4185/ir_material4/209830/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a>) noted that they are considering the matter, but no decision has been made. They note, however, a Board of Directors meeting on Monday 26 June 2023.</li>
<li>Articles suggest a Tender Offer "this year", delisting next. ¥1 trillion is a 50% premium. Or 35%. I expect shares go limit up, then we will get more news post-close.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei followed by other media outlets revealed Saturday that the JIC (株式会社産業革新投資機構) were in talks with JSR Corp (4185 JP) to acquire the photoresist maker for ¥1 trillion.
JSR's release (Japanese/English) noted that they are considering the matter, but no decision has been made. They note, however, a Board of Directors meeting on Monday 26 June 2023.
Articles suggest a Tender Offer "this year", delisting next. ¥1 trillion is a 50% premium. Or 35%. I expect shares go limit up, then we will get more news post-close.


JIC To Launch ¥1 Trillion Takeover on JSR (4185)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Wafer demand in 2023 has fallen to just 86% of global capacity, the lowest in a decade</li>
<li>Demand for Epitaxial wafers (used for Logic) is not going to recover until EOY'23. Demand for Polished wafers (used for Memory) will likely take until H2'24 to recover</li>
<li>It could potentially take until 2026 for supply and demand to return to balance. </li>
</ul>


Wafer demand in 2023 has fallen to just 86% of global capacity, the lowest in a decade
Demand for Epitaxial wafers (used for Logic) is not going to recover until EOY'23. Demand for Polished wafers (used for Memory) will likely take until H2'24 to recover
It could potentially take until 2026 for supply and demand to return to balance. 


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.</li>
<li>Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023 forecast provided</li>
<li>There's a major headwind looming on the horizon for the broader silicon wafer segment...</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.
Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023 forecast provided
There's a major headwind looming on the horizon for the broader silicon wafer segment...


SUMCO Q1’23 Revenues of ¥109.9 Billion, -6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of €404.4 million, -14.3% QoQ and -3% YoY.</li>
<li>Q2'23 revenues forecasted flat sequentially with no prospect of a second half recovery.</li>
<li>Why no H2 recovery ? And why did GlobalWafers outperform Siltronic last quarter?</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of €404.4 million, -14.3% QoQ and -3% YoY.
Q2'23 revenues forecasted flat sequentially with no prospect of a second half recovery.
Why no H2 recovery ? And why did GlobalWafers outperform Siltronic last quarter?


Siltronic Q1'23 Revenue €404.4 Million, -14.3% QoQ And -3% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly in China. In this note, we...

Arun George

JIC To Launch ¥1 Trillion Takeover on JSR (4185)

News Saturday says govt-affiliated JIC will buy JSR (4185) for ¥1trln (EV or market cap?, either 50% or 35% premium). This may not be great for...

Travis Lundy

Silicon Wafers Imminent Capacity Glut

Wafer demand in 2023 has fallen to just 86% of global capacity, lowest in a decade. It could take until 2026 for global supply and demand to return...

William Keating

SUMCO Q1’23 Revenues of ¥109.9 Billion, -6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023...

William Keating

Siltronic Q1'23 Revenue €404.4 Million, -14.3% QoQ And -3% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

Q1’23 revenues of €404.4 million, -14.3% QoQ and -3% YoY. Q2'23 revenues to be flat sequentially. No second half recovery. Why? And why did...

William Keating

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